S&P Global — 17 October 2024
Daily Update: October 17, 2024
US Energy Policy May Remain Intact Despite Election Uncertainty
By Nathan Hunt
Start every business day with our analyses of the most pressing developments affecting markets today, alongside a curated selection of our latest and most important insights on the global economy
US energy policy is an area of concern heading into a presidential election that has been in a virtual dead heat for months. Former President Donald Trump has vowed to repeal environmental regulations and withdraw support for electric vehicles. Vice President Kamala Harris has committed to staying the course on energy set by the Biden administration, specifically under the Inflation Reduction Act. While the contrast between the candidates appears clear, it is unclear how much support Republicans would give to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act. Democrats have already learned the political limits of pursuing a green agenda if it leads to higher energy prices. The rhetoric of energy might be radically different under each candidate, but the reality of energy markets appears to be roughly the same.
Trump has often expressed his intention to withdraw again from the Paris Agreement on climate change if he is elected. Former Trump administration officials have been active in outlining a new energy policy in the Project 2025 policy blueprint, released by the Heritage Foundation think tank. In the event of a Trump administration announcing its intention to withdraw from the accords, it is likely that lawsuits would delay actual withdrawal for several years.
Another key difference between the two candidates is their positions on battery-electric vehicles (BEVs). While a Harris administration would likely continue subsidies to encourage BEV adoption, Trump has been consistent in criticizing electric vehicles. He would likely face opposition from his own party, however, since many BEV plants are in Republican districts and local officials depend on the economic opportunities they offer.
Despite the Biden administration’s commitment to environmental goals, the LNG industry has grown significantly over the past few years. The Biden administration chose to pause key LNG export permits earlier this year, but industry observers believe that either candidate is likely to lift the pause. A Trump administration would approve permits quickly and a Harris administration might approve permits after additional scrutiny, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. LNG trade groups would prefer speedy approvals over slow scrutiny but appear to anticipate approval either way.
A recent “Energy Daily” podcast from S&P Global Commodity Insights reviewed what's at stake in the oil, gas, power and metals sectors in this election. One focus of the podcast was on support for the mining and processing of critical minerals related to the energy transition.
“On first blush, it might be easy to say there wouldn’t be a lot of differences. Both administrations have expressed support for critical minerals given this importance to the clean energy transition, but also that it is a domestic economic development project,” said Taylor Kuykendall, senior metals, mining and coal reporter at S&P Global Commodity Insights. “The devil is in the details. While they both support the industry, [policies] are probably going to vary a lot.”
Today is Thursday, October 17, 2024, and here is today’s essential intelligence.
Sustainability Insights: Middle East Sustainable Bond Issuance Trends
While funding climate transition and adaptation remains a priority in the region given the exposure to hydrocarbons, sustainability issuances (including funding social projects) have risen in 2024 compared with only green projects previously. This contrasts with global trends, where green bonds remain prevalent (about 60% of sustainable bonds).
—Read the article from S&P Global Ratings
Europe Brief: A Swedish Blueprint To Fix Productivity And Public Finances
Several eurozone countries are facing what appears to be the conflicting challenges of reducing public sector debt to GDP while boosting productivity. That's not an easy task, but Sweden's success, in the late 1990s, could provide a blueprint for a solution based on the application of new budgetary rules and the efficient allocation of private savings.
—Read the article from S&P Global Ratings
Clash Of Titans: Diverging Global And Emerging Market Mid-Year Active Performance
Much of recent market commentary has been focused on market concentration concerns, thanks to the dominance of mega-cap stocks in the US, with the S&P 500® Top 50 outperforming the S&P 500 by 5% for the 12 months ending in September 2024. But as we’ve noted in our inaugural SPIVA® Global Mid-Year 2024 Scorecard, concentration trends can manifest at a broader level than individual securities, and more specifically at a country level.
—Read the article from S&P Dow Jones Indices
Independent Refiners Cut Oct Fuel Oil Imports Before Impending Tax Changes
China's independent refineries, mostly in eastern Shandong province, cut their fuel oil feedstock procurement in October as the new tax deduction regulations will be effective soon, refinery and trade sources told S&P Global Commodity Insights Oct. 14. "Some refiners are still buying fuel oil as they don't have crude import quotas, there is no other choice for them," said an independent refinery source, adding that the volume is set to fall from September.
—Read the article from S&P Global Commodity Insights
India Eyes Higher Ethanol Blend Post-2025 Mandate
The Indian government has begun discussions to develop a post-2025 roadmap to further raise the ethanol blend in gasoline from 20%, said Hardeep Singh Puri, Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas in an industry event on Oct. 14. Talk of raising the blend target has come about as the 2025 target of 20% appears likely to be met, the oil minister said at the 12th CII Bioenergy Summit in New Delhi.
—Read the article from S&P Global Commodity Insights
MediaTalk | Season 2 | Ep. 34 - FuboTV On Its Fight For The Future Of Sports Media
The sports video market is in the midst of a historic shift. When it comes to local rights, myriad teams are abandoning regional sports networks in favor of broadcast and streaming offerings. On the national side, more and more rights are migrating to streaming from pay TV. Standing in the middle of it all is FuboTV, the sports-centric virtual multichannel service. On this episode of MediaTalk, host Mike Reynolds sits down with Fubo co-founder and CEO David Gandler to discuss the ever-evolving sports media landscape and the company's progress in its effort to secure a more equitable playing field for distributors.
—Listen and subscribe to the podcast from S&P Global Market Intelligence
Washington, DC: Datacenter And Energy Innovation Summit 2024 (Oct. 30, 2024)
Join Datacenter and energy analysts from 451 Research, S&P Global, and expert guests to discuss the latest trends and developments in the Datacenter industry, with a specific focus on the impact of AI on energy consumption. Don't miss this opportunity to gain valuable knowledge and network with industry professionals.
—Register for the in-person event from S&P Global Market Intelligence