articles Corporate /en/research-insights/articles/the-covid-19-fallout-quantifying-first-cut-impact-of-the-pandemic content
Log in to other products

Login to Market Intelligence Platform


Looking for more?

Request a Demo

You're one step closer to unlocking our suite of comprehensive and robust tools.

Fill out the form so we can connect you to the right person.

If your company has a current subscription with S&P Global Market Intelligence, you can register as a new user for access to the platform(s) covered by your license at Market Intelligence platform or S&P Capital IQ.

  • First Name*
  • Last Name*
  • Business Email *
  • Phone *
  • Company Name *
  • City *
  • We generated a verification code for you

  • Enter verification Code here*

* Required

Thank you for your interest in S&P Global Market Intelligence! We noticed you've identified yourself as a student. Through existing partnerships with academic institutions around the globe, it's likely you already have access to our resources. Please contact your professors, library, or administrative staff to receive your student login.

At this time we are unable to offer free trials or product demonstrations directly to students. If you discover that our solutions are not available to you, we encourage you to advocate at your university for a best-in-class learning experience that will help you long after you've completed your degree. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause.

In This List
CRISIL, an S&P Global Company

The Covid-19 fallout: Quantifying first-cut impact of the pandemic

S&P Global

Daily Update: October 22, 2020

S&P Global

Daily Update: October 21, 2020

S&P Global Platts

China Macro & Metals: tighter credit conditions will weigh on metals markets

S&P Global

Daily Update: October 14, 2020

The Covid-19 fallout: Quantifying first-cut impact of the pandemic


Coronavirus Pressuring Cash Flows At Four U.S. Project Finance Conference Center Hotels

Slashing India's base case GDP growth 50 bps

The Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19) has cast a long shadow over a much-anticipated mild recovery in the Indian economy in fiscal 2021, with the World Health Organization (WHO) declaring it a pandemic.

External risks to global growth has increased significantly now.

S&P Global foresees a recession in the US and the Eurozone, and has its forecast for China’s growth slashed to 2.9% from 4.8% announced on March 5.

Domestically, some hit to consumption demand because of social distancing is likely, though it is too early for that to reflect in data. Currently, the other downside to growth is also due to the financial sector stress now percolating to private sector banks.

In view of this, CRISIL has cut its base-case gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for fiscal 2021 to 5.2%, from 5.7% announced recently. This factors in the huge uncertainty because of Covid-19, with risks to the forecast tilted downwards. The forecast will be reassessed continuously as new information becomes available.

A serious downside to our base case can emerge from two developments. One, the pandemic is not contained by April-June 2020 globally, and makes the global slowdown more severe. And two, it spreads rapidly in India, affecting domestic consumption, investment, and production. These would further hurt confidence and the financial markets (see flow chart below).

Channels of transmission

In any case, India has little policy firepower to give a meaningful push to growth, and the pandemic is making it more difficult. While there will be steeper deceleration in global growth and India’s trade, what is unclear is the extent of impact on economy through domestic channels of production (supply) and consumption (demand).


The answer would depend largely on the extent of spread within India. So far, India is among the Asian economies that aren’t deeply impacted.

With the number of Covid-19 cases nearing 2 lakh and the death toll topping 7,800, the impact of the virus on global sentiment, economic and otherwise, has been immense. While new afflictions have been declining in China – the epicentre of the outbreak – since the end of February, it is spreading fast outside. New cases outside China now surpasses those in China, with Italy, Iran and South Korea being the worst affected.

With more than 120 countries reporting confirmed cases of Covid-19, its implications on the global economy is more threatening than envisaged a month ago.

India reported its first confirmed case on January 30. Over the past few weeks, that number has risen sharply to 137. However, there are only some signs of community transmission – the percentage of affected people is still low, with most cases related to travel. That said, the domestic situation remains fluid and warrants constant monitoring.

Read the Full Report
Learn More