The top three research highlights by S&P Global Market Intelligence for September 2022:
#1. The US did not enter a recession in the first half of the year, according to Market Intelligence, but central banks are waging a war against inflation that will soften the world economy via rising rates.
- In Europe, the ECB announced a large, 75 basis point hike in early September and the Fed is expected to keep hiking through the end of the year. These rate hikes to battle inflation are already cooling the economy.
- In August, global economic activity contracted for the first time since June 2020, according to the monthly PMI Bulletin. This contraction occurred as new order inflows dropped, international trade volume fell and signs of excess capacity grew. Each show companies are being cautious, controlling cost.
- The recession watch and inflation battle is escalating in Europe where soaring energy prices from Russian gas curtailments are the big story.
- The UK’s new government is already moved to help consumers with energy costs, and we are closely watching how other countries may respond.
- U.S. energy exports have been a boon for Europe this year. Gas exports from America to Europe have never been higher and coal exports to Europe are at multi-year highs.
#2. Surging levels of global trade coming out of the worst of the pandemic led to supply chain snarls, order delays and higher shipping costs, which fed into the inflationary pressures around the globe. Our latest trade outlook and insights show signs of easing, however.
- A global trade slowdown is already visible in Market Intelligence trade data, both at the sectoral and regional levels. Unsurprisingly, the downturn in export growth aligns with the war in Ukraine.
- Trends in re-shoring and near-shoring are contributing to an outlook for shorter shipping times.
- Bilateral trade data available on Market Intelligence showed high volumes from top exporting countries this summer, a sign of businesses stocking up for back-to-school and potentially early preparations for the holiday seasons.
- Longer term, we expect the global volume of trade by 2035 to be 40% higher than 2019 levels.
#3. Top Gun: Maverick is the first movie to ever sit atop U.S. box office results on both Memorial Day and Labor Day holidays.
- The film has a combined 2022 domestic box office in excess of $700 million, on its way to likely becoming the top-grossing film of the year.
- The latest Top Gun film has the fifth-best domestic box office results of all time.
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