The U.S. House of Representatives' Democratic majority on Jan. 4 approved legislative rules for the new Congress that will exempt climate change-related measures from "pay as you go," or PAYGO, requirements.
The rule change angered House Republicans, who said it would allow Democrats to pursue costly climate policies such as the Green New Deal program backed by more progressive lawmakers.
PAYGO is a budgetary control measure requiring that new legislation not increase the federal budget deficit or lower the surplus. Under PAYGO rules, any bill that would raise the deficit must include offsets that either increase revenues or reduce spending in other areas.
As part of the House's rules package for the new 117th Congress, Democrats proposed to exempt measures from the PAYGO requirements that "prevent, prepare for, or respond to economic, environmental, or public health consequences resulting from climate change."
A similar provision was also included for measures to address the economic and public health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Progressive Democrats including Green New Deal supporters Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., and Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash., have pushed to exempt big-ticket policy items from the PAYGO rule.
"We face massive health, economic, and climate challenges," Jayapal tweeted. "To overcome them, we need bold solutions that finally meet the scale of these crises."
Molly Reynolds, a senior fellow for governance studies at the Brookings Institution, said the House was already able to waive PAYGO requirements by a simple majority but that adding the provision to the rules package "does reduce one hurdle and potential source of friction/criticism that House Democratic leaders could have faced absent the rule change."
But Republicans blasted the rules package, calling the PAYGO provisions fiscally irresponsible.
"This is doing nothing more than removing a key barrier to the Green New Deal and other liberal tax-and-spend policies," House Rules Committee Ranking Member Tom Cole, R-Okla., said in prepared remarks. Cole repeated estimates that the Green New Deal could cost as much as $93 trillion over the next decade, should it be enacted, an estimate that the plan's supporters have said is inaccurate.
In 2019, congressional Democrats in both chambers sponsored nonbinding resolutions calling for the creation of a Green New Deal that would decarbonize the power sector within 10 years and achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions economywide. The resolution also contained sweeping jobs and healthcare guarantees.
Democrats were divided on the Green New Deal, with moderate party members wanting more detail on how it would reduce emissions and hesitant to include healthcare provisions in a climate plan. But Democrats are still expected to pursue big climate policies in the coming years, particularly with a Democrat entering the White House. U.S. President-elect Joe Biden has called to decarbonize the electric power sector by 2035 as part of a $2 trillion climate plan.
But even if the House paves the way for easier passage of big climate legislation, Democrats may be limited in what types of bills they can advance in the U.S. Senate, which may stay under Republican control following Jan. 5 runoff elections for Georgia's two Senate seats.
Although the House PAYGO rule change will not apply to the Senate, Reynolds said the upper chamber often waives budget rules for a piece of legislation that has the necessary 60 votes to avoid a filibuster. But getting Republicans to support big climate bills from the House could still be difficult with a continued GOP Senate majority.
"The biggest constraint on getting big spending packages done is still most likely to be the Senate filibuster and, if Republicans win one or both Senate races in Georgia, the ability of [Senate Republican Leader Mitch] McConnell to largely determine what comes to the floor for a vote," Reynolds said.
