Hitting Paris climate goal will be tough without US clean power program – study

The U.S. could achieve its goal under the Paris Agreement on climate change to roughly halve greenhouse emissions from 2005 levels by 2030 even if Congress fails to enact a nationwide program to incentivize transitioning to zero-carbon electricity, a new study said.

But doing so would require Congress, federal agencies, states and companies to accelerate climate action — including through ambitious national legislation and federal emissions standards for new and existing power plants.

"The biggest opportunities for emission reductions in this decade reside in the electric power sector," consulting firm Rhodium Group said in a report released Oct. 19. "If actions to cut electric power sector emissions are not successful, then achieving the 2030 target may not be possible."

In April, U.S. President Joe Biden committed to reducing economywide greenhouse gas emissions by 50% to 52% from 2005 levels by 2030 as part of the country's renewed membership in the Paris climate accord. The U.S. and other countries are set to firm up existing and more ambitious commitments under the agreement at the COP26 conference in Scotland that starts in late October.

For the U.S. to fulfill its pledge, Congress must pass both a reconciliation package and bipartisan infrastructure bill stuffed with climate and clean energy provisions, Rhodium Group said. Enactment of those bills — combined with executive branch action and accelerated state and corporate climate initiatives — could cut U.S. net greenhouse gas emissions by 45% to 51% below 2005 levels in 2030 under the report's "joint action" scenario. Of those reductions, 39%-41% would come from the electric power sector.

Those emissions cuts could happen even if the reconciliation package does not include a nationwide clean electricity performance program, or CEPP, Rhodium Group said. The CEPP as designed would award incentives to utilities that grow their percentage of carbon-free generation and issue penalties to those that do not.

Democrats, who hold thin majorities in Congress, have estimated the program could provide a substantial amount of the reconciliation bill's projected emissions reductions. But moderate Democratic U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia has opposed the CEPP, arguing the policy would use "taxpayer dollars to pay private companies to do things they're already doing."

With the CEPP's place in the reconciliation package in jeopardy, the Rhodium Group did not include the program in its list of actions Congress would have to take to align with the Paris climate accord. The analysis also excluded a proposed fee on methane emissions opposed by oil and natural gas producers.

To get the U.S. to its Paris goal, the Rhodium Group said Congress would have to approve new and extended tax credits for clean energy, carbon capture and storage, and grid improvements; extend a federal incentive for electric vehicle purchases; and fund grant programs for clean energy, EV infrastructure and building electrification, among other things. Those and other proposals are included in the U.S. House of Representatives' budget reconciliation package.

At the executive level, the joint action scenario assumes the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency requires all new fossil fuel-fired electric generators to meet CO2 emissions rates equal to 90% carbon capture starting in 2022. For existing fossil fuel-fired power plants, the EPA would require an 80% reduction in covered emissions from 2005 levels in 2030 under the joint action scenario.

Other necessary executive branch actions include tougher emissions standards for vehicles, industrial sources and oil and gas producers, as well as ambitious equipment performance standards for buildings and industry.

"Assuming leaders in the White House, key agencies, state capitals, and corner offices have the political will to act ambitiously, and both the congressional infrastructure bill and budget package become law, we find that reducing emissions 50% by 2030 is within reach," the Rhodium Group said.