Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 2 March 2026

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Global PMI surveys and US payrolls dominate the week ahead

The week ahead sees PMI data for manufacturing and services released around the world, providing a prelude to the publication of the monthly US employment report on Friday. Other key releases include flash inflation numbers in the eurozone, GDP for Brazil, Australia, Italy and the eurozone, plus US trade data.

The full complement of worldwide manufacturing and services PMIs will provide updates on economic conditions in February. January's data showed global growth accelerated from December's six-month low but remained subdued compared to the highs seen last year amid low business confidence. The preliminary flash PMI data available so far have meanwhile painted a mixed picture for February: stronger growth in Japan and the UK, as well as signs of life in the eurozone, contrasted with slower US growth. Although the latter saw economic activity disrupted by weather, the PMIs have signalled a diverging trend of stronger growth in Europe and Asia versus slower US growth for several months now. Asian PMI data will also be important to watch to assess whether the ASEAN economies are continuing to outperform in terms of manufacturing growth.

The national PMI surveys are accompanied by sector PMI data, which will provide insights into detailed industry trends. Here we have seen financial services slip from being a major economic growth driver in 2025 to show signs of a marked weakening of its contribution to global growth.

A lesser-known PMI dataset to also watch is the Comment Trackers, which use the anecdotal evidence provided by PMI survey participants to provide insights into what's driving change in the business environment. The comment-based uncertainty indicator, for example, has fallen in recent months but remains elevated (see chart). While February's PMI data will have been mainly collected prior to recent tariff developments post the Supreme Court ruling, it's possible that we could see uncertainty rise further, especially given events in the Middle East, which could dampen economic activity in the coming months. Tensions around Iran will also be key to oil prices and broader inflation trends, which have shown signs of lifting higher in the flash PMI data.

Friday meanwhile sees the publication of US non-farm payrolls and unemployment data. January's payroll count surprised to the upside at 130K, its highest for just over a year, while unemployment ticked lower to 4.3%. The data caused a pull-back in US rate cut expectations, adding to the prevailing view that the FOMC will remain on hold in the next few months while it weighs the influx of new data.

Read more about recent global PMI trends here.

Key diary events

Monday 2 Mar

Americas
- Mexico Business Confidence (Feb)
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

EMEA
- Germany Retail Sales (Jan)
- Switzerland Retail Sales (Jan)
- Italy GDP (2025)
- UK Mortgage Lending and Approval (Jan)

APAC
South Korea Market Holiday
- Indonesia Inflation (Feb)
- Indonesia Balance of Trade (Jan)
- India Industrial Production (Jan)
- Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

Tuesday 3 Mar

Americas
- Brazil GDP (Q4)

EMEA
- Türkiye Inflation (Feb)
- Spain Unemployment Change (Feb)
- Eurozone Inflation (Feb, flash)
- Italy Inflation (Feb, flash)

APAC
India, Thailand Market Holiday
- South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI* (Feb)
- ASEAN S&P Global Manufacturing PMI* (Feb)
- Japan Unemployment Rate (Jan)
- Australia Building Permits (Jan, prelim)

Wednesday 4 Mar

Worldwide Manufacturing PMIs, incl. global PMI* (Feb)
(Data released from 2 Mar)

Americas
- US ADP Employment Change (Feb)
- US ISM Services PMI (Feb)

EMEA
- Switzerland Inflation (Feb)
- Italy Unemployment (Jan)
- Eurozone Unemployment (Jan)
- Italy GDP (Q4, final)

APAC
- Australia AiG Industry Index (Feb)
- South Korea Industrial Production (Jan)
- Australia GDP (Q4)
- China (Mainland) NBS PMI (Feb)
- Japan Consumer Confidence (Feb)
- Taiwan Export Orders (Jan)

Thursday 5 Mar

Worldwide Services, Composite PMIs, inc. global PMI* (Feb)
(Data released from 4 Mar)

Global Sector PMI* (Feb)

Americas
- US Export and Import Prices (Jan)
- US Balance of Trade (Jan)

EMEA
- France Industrial Production (Jan)
- Switzerland Unemployment Rate (Feb)
- Eurozone HCOB Construction PMI* (Feb)
- Italy Retail Sales (Jan)
- UK S&P Global Construction PMI* (Feb)
- Eurozone Retail Sales (Jan)

APAC
- Australia Balance of Trade (Jan)
- Philippines Inflation (Feb)
- Thailand Inflation (Feb)
- Singapore Retail Sales (Jan)
- Malaysia BNM Interest Rate Decision
- Taiwan Industrial Production, Retail Sales (Jan)

Friday 6 Mar

Americas
- Brazil Balance of Trade (Feb)
- US Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings (Feb)

EMEA
- Germany Factory Orders (Jan)
- UK Halifax House Price Index* (Feb)
- Eurozone GDP (Q4, 3rd est.)

APAC
- South Korea Inflation (Feb)
- Philippines Industrial Production (Jan)
- Taiwan Inflation (Feb)

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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI^®) data are compiled by S&P Global for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.

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