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Hurricane Ian made landfall on the southwest Florida coast on 28
September 2022 as a strong Category 4 storm. Severe flooding and
widespread damage occurred from the Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island
metropolitan area north toward the Tampa metro area. The storm then
moved northeast across the state, leaving behind damaged
infrastructure and flooding from Orlando to the Deltona-Daytona
Beach metro area. The hardest-hit areas of the state account for
nearly 15% of Florida GDP and around 0.8% of US GDP. The broader
affected area of the state accounts for almost 60% of Florida
output and 3% nationally.
Hurricane Ian will have a noticeable impact on near-term
GDP growth in Florida but only a slight impact at the national
level.
The storm will shave 1.5-2.0 percentage points off Florida's
real GDP growth in the third quarter. Our September forecast,
released before the storm, called for third-quarter growth of 1.9%.
Recovery efforts and a return to normal business activity will
allow Florida's real GDP to accelerate in the fourth quarter.
Nationally, real GDP growth will be reduced by 0.1 percentage point
in the third quarter.
The hardest-hit areas included the Cape Coral-Ft. Myers,
Punta Gorda, and Naples metropolitan areas.
These areas account for over $150 billion of annual economic
output in Florida, nearly 15% of the state's economy.
Lesser-impacted areas account for another $450 billion of economic
activity. Further north, the Tampa metro area escaped a direct hit
and appears poised for a quicker bounce back. Recovery and repair
in and around Fort Myers and Naples will take longer as
infrastructure and residences are rebuilt. Fortunately, Florida's
largest metros avoided the worst of the storm, mitigating the
overall impact on the state.
Consumer spending will rise as rebuilding efforts
commence.
The COVID-19 pandemic has shown the viability of remote work for
those able to work from home given electricity is turned back on.
Spending on property repair and durable goods like appliances will
boost the area's construction and retail sectors. Nevertheless,
missed economic activity from cancelled hotel bookings and
vacations, closed restaurants and bars, and damage to Florida's
already weak citrus crop cannot be recovered.
Florida has been one of the top-performing states
following the COVID-19 pandemic
Recovery efforts will boost spending in the fourth quarter and
into 2023 as homes and businesses are rebuilt and damaged
infrastructure is repaired and replaced. Given the timing of the
storm, many impacts will not be visible in the economic data.
Employment data for September were gathered prior to the
hurricane's arrival, and most businesses will likely retain their
workers by the time October data are gathered toward the middle of
the month. Florida is, unfortunately, accustomed to hurricane
recovery efforts and will show resilience in the coming months.
Posted 05 October 2022 by James C. Kelly, Senior Economist, US Regional Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence
This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.
