Political violence disruptions ahead for LAPSSET corridor

The Lamu Port Southern Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) corridor, now under construction, has been designed to provide a comprehensive rail, road, and oil pipeline network linking Lamu port, Kenya, to landlocked markets in Ethiopia and Uganda as well as crude oil production in South Sudan. However, the project is likely to face continued delays, and estimated costs for the corridor's development have increased from $16 billion in 2009, according to the Kenyan government, to $30 billion during 2014. Construction companies also face significant risks of disruption due to political violence-principally terrorism, landownership disputes, industrial action, asset damage, and personnel harm-as do suppliers, partners, and cargo along the construction route supply chain.

Using the Every Point on the Planet (EPOP) forecast mapping tool (see figure), IHS is able to plot where the threat of political violence is highest (shown as 'clouds' colored according to risk level), where it is likely to grow, and which assets are most at risk.

The Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) have increased patrols in the northeast, especially around Mandera, since June 2014, to improve security. However, by drawing on over 2,300 geolocated events in Kenya, differentiated by scale and type of attack, EPOP indicates that northeast Kenya is nevertheless still under threat of political violence. Land cargo is likely to be delayed at military checkpoints and is at risk of damage from roadside improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and small-arms attack if mistaken for Kenyan military supplies.

The KDF deployment as part of the African Union Mission in Somalia to fight Al-Shabaab has significantly increased the dangers posed to cargo along LAPSSET's proposed northeastern road corridor. Al-Shabaab is likely to target personnel at construction sites and sabotage equipment, presenting increased risks of operational disruption, damage, and harm to personnel. EPOP shows that these threats are concentrated along the Somali border in Garissa and Mandera counties.

In the north and northwest, aggrieved communities are likely to disrupt road and rail construction in Marsabit, Samburu, and Turkana counties. Labor disputes over wages, working conditions, and lack of community development are likely to trigger protests and riots. Other risk clouds show increased fighting over water and livestock between rival communities along proposed railroads in Marsabit and Turkana counties.

Disruption to road construction and port operations is highly likely in southeastern Kenya, especially along the proposed Lamu port-Mombasa road network. The risk of small-arms and IED attacks on freight and land cargo transported out of Lamu port is also increasing.

Chris Suckling is consultant, sub-Saharan Africa and Indicators & Analytics, IHS Country Risk