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02 December 2022 Veronica Retamales Burford Marie Lechler, Ph.D. Jose Sevilla-Macip Johanna Marris Carlos Caicedo Carla Selman Ailsa Rosales
Extreme weather events such as water stress, floods, and droughts have led to additional operational challenges in Latin America.
01 December 2022 Kathleen Navin Ben Herzon
Monthly US GDP rose 0.3% in October
01 December 2022 Thomas McCartin
Cooler sentiment over the outlook for mainland China’s relaxation of zero-Covid policy has pulled prices lower after the previous week’s increase...
29 November 2022 Vaiva Seckute
Across Europe residential real estate prices have been rising amid low interest rates, boosting affordability and making investments in real...
29 November 2022 Ken Matheny Juan Turcios Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
We revised up our forecast of fourth-quarter US GDP growth to a 0.8% annual rate, reflecting sizeable increases in orders and shipments of capital...
29 November 2022 Sara Johnson
We project global real GDP growth to slow from 5.9% in 2021 to 2.9% in 2022 and 1.5% in 2023.
22 November 2022 Lindsay Newman
five organizing themes that will drive the economic and risk environment in 2023: global security unsettled, energy trade-offs, precarious supply...
21 November 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
Largely on the resiliency in US retail sales, we revised up our forecast of fourth-quarter US GDP growth by 0.7 percentage point to +0.4%.
21 November 2022 Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch Deepa Kumar Angus Lam
India’s ambition to increase its economic power is unlikely to be limited to encouraging foreign investor participation.
17 November 2022 Michael Dall
Our MPI signals that better news on US inflation and easing Chinese COVID-19 restrictions boost markets
17 November 2022 Jingyi Pan
November flash PMI data will be eagerly awaited in the coming week to shed light on inflation, employment trends and risks of recession in the...
16 November 2022 Michael Zdinak Chris Varvares Akshat Goel
US holiday sales will grow a solid 4.5% in 2022, above the pre-pandemic average of 3.9% and well below the lofty rates seen in recent years.
14 November 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
The better-than-expected US Consumer Price Index report for October supports a downshift in the pace of Fed rate hikes in December.
14 November 2022 Rajiv Biswas Jingyi Pan
An assortment of data releases packs the week ahead including US and China’s retail sales and industrial production figures.
08 November 2022 Michael Dall
Weak global construction prospects spark latest sell-off
08 November 2022 William Farmer Theo Acheampong Lindsay Newman John Raines Jack A. Kennedy Hannah Cotillon Dijedon Imeri Carla Selman Ailsa Rosales
Latin American and African representatives are likely to frame water scarcity as a global issue affecting food security to obtain financing commitments....
08 November 2022 William Farmer Theo Acheampong Lindsay Newman John Raines Jack A. Kennedy Hannah Cotillon Dijedon Imeri Carla Selman Ailsa Rosales
The Russia–Ukraine conflict has severely disrupted energy supply in the EU and forced a near-term policy divergence between energy security and...
08 November 2022 Alisa Strobel
More sub-Saharan African countries are likely to seek further debt restructuring as foreign exchange shortages rise.
07 November 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
Demand has softened, and we continue to expect a weak fourth quarter with US GDP contracting slightly, marking the start of a recession.
07 November 2022 William Farmer Theo Acheampong Lindsay Newman John Raines Jack A. Kennedy Hannah Cotillon Dijedon Imeri Carla Selman Ailsa Rosales
The conflict in Ukraine is likely to further deviate the timeline for meeting the targets of limiting temperature rise and reaching net-zero...
07 November 2022 Marie Lechler, Ph.D. Hugo Foster
Planners who are in the dark about local economic activity could look at where the lights are on for insights into local economic and industry...
07 November 2022 Karl Kuykendall Heather Upton Dave Iaia
With US mid-terms elections this week, our US regional team explores the critical economic issues motivating voters in swing states
03 November 2022 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in November
02 November 2022 Kathleen Navin Ben Herzon
According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP declined 0.1% in September.
02 November 2022 Michael Dall
From our MPI: Lower demand for natural gas in Europe pushes prices down
01 November 2022 Ken Wattret
Energy shortages due to unusually cold weather could lead to much deeper near-term output contractions than forecast.
31 October 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
We revised up our US forecast of fourth-quarter GDP growth by 0.4 percentage point, but we still show the US economy contracting at a 0.7% annual...
28 October 2022 Ralf Wiegert Jamil Naayem
The UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia are expected to experience healthy total construction growth in 2022 and 2023.
27 October 2022 Ronel Oberholzer
Amid increasing concerns over unsustainable debt levels in many African countries, Ghana's default risk has increased.
26 October 2022 Michael Dall
Politburo meeting fails to boost market sentiment
25 October 2022 Brian Lawson
Emerging market supply remains strong for investment-grade issuers, but debt restructuring issues are affecting several sub-Saharan countries...
25 October 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
Manufacturing activity expanded in September, while contraction has intensified in the U.S. housing sector.
24 October 2022 Akshat Goel
Parents are expected to spend $3.2 billion on candy this Halloween — a record amount, which works out to about $25 per household.
21 October 2022 Michael Dall
Despite last week’s commodity price increase, weak demand will dominate pricing in the near term.
17 October 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
The Fed will be forced to raise interest rates to support tight financial conditions and a softening in demand in pursuit of lower inflation....
13 October 2022 Michael Dall
Per our MPI, improving gas market fundamentals pull commodity prices lower
13 October 2022 Lawrence Nelson John Raines
US midterm elections represent a referendum on the president. Issues weighing down the president’s approval rating include inflation and immigration....
11 October 2022 Karl Kuykendall
Many US residents and businesses left high-cost coastal cities during the pandemic for lower-cost southern and Mountain locations.
10 October 2022 Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
We expect US labor markets to ease in coming quarters as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates
06 October 2022 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in October including: China, Ghana, and...
06 October 2022 Michael Dall
Market confidence low as borrowing costs soar and buyers take flight
06 October 2022 Sergio A. Hernandez Rafael Amiel Pollyanna De Lima Paula Diosquez-Rice Carlos Caicedo Ailsa Rosales
The likely need for a wide coalition, regardless of who wins the election, will prevent sharp changes in policy and would slow down structural...
05 October 2022 James C. Kelly
Hurricane Ian, a category 4 hurricane that hit southwest Florida in late September will shave 1.5–2.0 percentage points off Florida’s Q3 GDP...
04 October 2022 Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
We expect outright declines in real US GDP beginning as soon as the fourth quarter of this year.
04 October 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon
According to our Monthly GDP Index, US monthly GDP rose 0.8% in August.
29 September 2022 Michael Dall
Market confidence hit by further aggressive interest rate hikes as shown in the MPI
28 September 2022 Bree Neff Anton Alifandi
Protests in Indonesia are not supported by major political parties and are unlikely to transform into wider discontent with the government. ...
28 September 2022 Raj Badiani
The UK must borrow money to fund its tax cuts, triggering turmoil in financial markets and uncertainty in the inflation fight.
27 September 2022 Theo Acheampong Lindsay Newman John Anton Johanna Marris
The surge in demand for critical minerals creates opportunities for companies and exacerbates regulatory and operational risks.
27 September 2022 Scott Hazelton Marie Lechler, Ph.D.
Our regional data and country risk scores help investors pinpoint attractive locations for construction projects.
26 September 2022 Ken Matheny Chris Varvares Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
We expect the US recession to be mild by historical standards. The unemployment rate is likely to rise by several percentage points.
22 September 2022 Sara Johnson
Tightening financial conditions will lead to a further slowdown in global economic growth, putting expansions in vulnerable regions at risk and...
21 September 2022 Thomas McCartin
Commodity prices marked a slight increase last week with a mixed bag between subcomponents
19 September 2022 Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
We lowered our forecast of third-quarter US GDP growth as data suggested less growth of personal consumption expenditures.
15 September 2022 Michael Dall
Market sentiment hit by big interest rate hikes - MPI highlights increasing anxiety
12 September 2022 Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
We expect US GDP growth to improve to sluggish rates in the third and fourth quarters. We don’t expect much improvement in growth in 2023.
08 September 2022 Michael Dall
Prospects for slower demand continue to weigh on commodity prices, with data last week further harming market sentiment.
08 September 2022 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in September.
06 September 2022 Ken Matheny Joel Prakken Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
Labor demand is still very strong and labor markets are extraordinarily tight.
06 September 2022 Carla Selman
As a result of the Chilean referendum, a new constitutional process is likely to delay the implementation of President Boric’s agenda
02 September 2022 Chris Suckling
Hydropower, manufacturing, and automotive sectors pushed the highest increases CRP
02 September 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon
According to our Monthly US GDP Index, US GDP rose 0.4% in July.
30 August 2022 Ken Matheny Joel Prakken Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
Fresh data suggest that the US economy did not enter a recession in the first half. We anticipate the US will avoid an outright recession.
25 August 2022 Jordan Anderson
Outbreak of major fighting near southern Tigray increases risk of wider conflict resuming in northern Ethiopia
25 August 2022 Theo Acheampong Thea Fourie Martin Roberts Langelihle Malimela Jordan Anderson
We discuss political developments and the potential for social unrest in select sub-Saharan African countries over the next six months
24 August 2022 Michael Dall
MPI increases as traders scramble for natural gas supply before winter season
24 August 2022 Sara Johnson
Global inflation is expected to moderate in 2023 and 2024. The global economy is expected to achieve a soft landing with real GDP averaging 2.5%...
16 August 2022 Rajiv Biswas
More youthful demographic profiles in India, Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam will drive rapid growth in consumption.
11 August 2022 Michael Dall
MPI decreases as interest rate rises hit investor confidence
10 August 2022 Sara Johnson
Global recessions are typically characterized by the depth, breadth, and duration of a decline in economic activity. Are we there?
08 August 2022 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in August.
04 August 2022 Michael Dall
MPI increases after Russia announces cuts to European gas flows
02 August 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon
According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.2% in June.
02 August 2022 Yacine Rouimi Michael Ryan Marie Lechler, Ph.D. Diego Iscaro
EU member states are expected to embark on national campaigns to reduce gas consumption in the household and commercial sectors.
01 August 2022 Joel Prakken
In Q1 US real GDP declined but real GDI grew 1.8%. What do these numbers tell us about the direction of of economy?
28 July 2022 Hannah Cotillon Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch
Countries with similarly weak economic fundamentals or poor economic policies have reduced resilience to external shocks, like inflation.
27 July 2022 Michael Dall
MPI drops for sixth week in a row as price correction continues
27 July 2022 Lindsay Newman
Recent events (Russia-Ukraine conflict, COVID-19 pandemic, China’s COVID containment measures and Brexit) crystallize that pressure points in...
26 July 2022 Rafael Amiel Jose Sevilla-Macip Emily Crowley
Materialization of the nearshoring potential across sectors including critical minerals would significantly improve Mexico’s economic standing....
25 July 2022 Todd Lee John Raines Chris Williamson Chris Varvares Amanda Eglinton
Concerns about stagflation have emerged because high inflation is widespread and growth is slowing in some markets. Here’s what we’re watching....
25 July 2022 Sara Johnson
The global economy is projected to resume growth despite the risk of recession remains high in major economies due to accelerating monetary policy...
20 July 2022 Michael Dall
Sharp declines in industrial metal prices drive MPI down
18 July 2022 Marie Lechler, Ph.D. Diego Iscaro Bibianna Norek
in France, regional inequities are expected to grow over the next 5 years. Will this play a role in the upcoming elections?
18 July 2022 Olivier Beaufils Mohsen Bonakdarpour Keerti Rajan John Mothersole Frank Hoffman Daniel Yergin, Ph.D.
The goal of Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 will be short-circuited and remain out of reach unless massive new copper supply comes online in a timely...
15 July 2022 Brian Lawson
Issuance has been reduced over the last two weeks by the 4 July holiday and adverse US inflation data: despite some positive events, conditions...
13 July 2022 Tal Dickstein
Insights from our MPI: Lumber and energy prices rise while most other commodity prices drop.
13 July 2022 Joel Prakken
inflation in the US is intolerably high, unemployment unsustainably low, and inflation expectations have crept worrisomely above the Federal...
11 July 2022 Thea Fourie
A global recession could prove more challenging for the SSA region this time around, with fewer tailwinds and buffers to avoid sluggish growth....
05 July 2022 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in July.
04 July 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly US GDP declined 0.1% in May.
01 July 2022 Thomas McCartin
Natural gas prices jump again but most other commodity prices drop.
27 June 2022 Yating Xu Todd C. Lee Lei Yi David Li
Mainland China’s zero-Covid policy has exacted heavy tolls on the economy
23 June 2022 Michael Dall
Sharp declines in industrial metal prices drive MPI down
23 June 2022 Yacine Rouimi Ken Wattret
An intensification of energy and monetary policy-related headwinds would raise the likelihood of recession in Europe.
22 June 2022 Sara Johnson
The global economic climate is shifting rapidly in June, putting forecasters on recession watch.
16 June 2022 Brian Lawson
The European Central Bank held an unscheduled meeting on 15 June after expectations of tighter monetary policy in both the US and EU pushed peripheral...
15 June 2022 Michael Dall
Prices increase again but markets remain uncertain per our Weekly Pricing Pulse
14 June 2022 Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel
US inflation concerns led to a further tightening of financial conditions in the week ending June 10. An interest rate hike is on the horizon....
10 June 2022 Ken Wattret
At face value, the eurozone’s real GDP growth rates in Q1 were encouraging but a closer inspection of the expenditure data paints a much less...
10 June 2022 Petya Barzilska Dijedon Imeri Diego Iscaro
The proposed acceleration of the energy transition will require larger and faster investment, and the availability of funding will be key.
10 June 2022 Petya Barzilska Laurence Allan Kevjn Lim Ken Wattret John Raines Jessica Leyland Jack Kennedy Dijedon Imeri Alyssa Grzelak
As the Russia-Ukraine conflict intensifies, we are seeing increased supply chain issues and the lingering effects of China’s Covid policy.
09 June 2022 Michael Dall
Prices increase after another eventful week on commodity markets
07 June 2022 Veronica Retamales Burford Thea Fourie Jeremy Smith Brian Lawson
CAR became the second country globally, after El Salvador, to adopt bitcoin as legal tender. A look at the operational challenges
03 June 2022 Brian Lawson
Our latest report focuses on a selective revival in larger share sales and new sovereign issuance in the Green Bond Market.
02 June 2022 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in June.
01 June 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon
According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.5% in April.
27 May 2022 Michael Dall
Better news from mainland China on COVID-19 send commodity prices higher
25 May 2022 Jamil Naayem
The MENA region, driven by large oil exporters, will benefit from the Russia-Ukraine war spillovers by spending additional petrodollars, thus...
24 May 2022 Petya Barzilska Laurence Allan John Raines Jessica Leyland Dijedon Imeri
Turkey’s implicit veto threat probably signifies an intent to extract concessions from other NATO members.
24 May 2022 Sara Johnson
We have revised our 2022 global GDP forecast down to 2.9% from 3.2%, global consumer price inflation projected to rise to 6.7% in 2022
23 May 2022 Theo Acheampong Nezo Sobekwa Natznet Tesfay Lindsay Newman Laurence Allan Jose Sevilla-Macip John Raines Jan Gerhard Jack A. Kennedy Dijedon Imeri Deepa Kumar Carlos Cardenas Carla Selman Bibianna Norek Anton Alifandi
Splits within the G20 on Russia are an early indicator of increasing fault lines, affecting future political, security and trade relations.
20 May 2022 Brian Lawson
Although a Kazakh state borrower, Poland and Romania have all issued successfully since our 5 May report, overall market dynamics are worsening....
20 May 2022 Michael Dall
Market sentiment sours over global growth concerns - latest insights from our MPI
18 May 2022 Ken Wattret
A major change in approach is now required, with the anchoring of inflation expectations a priority
17 May 2022 Jordan Anderson
The prism of country risk can make a unique and valuable contribution to our understanding of the ever-growing cyber-threat environment in which...
16 May 2022 Marie Lechler, Ph.D. Chris Suckling
Regions specialized in sectors that have been adversely impacted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are set to face worse economic growth outlooks...
12 May 2022 Michael Dall
Gloomier demand outlook and higher interest rates dampened commodity prices last week
10 May 2022 Petya Barzilska Nezo Sobekwa Lindsay Newman, Ph.D. Jose Sevilla-Macip John Raines, Ph.D. Blanka Kolenikova
The latest in a series of reports on migration in 2022 focuses on examples of economic and climate-related push factors in Europe and beyond. ...
06 May 2022 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in May.
06 May 2022 Brian Lawson
Reference rates and EU spreads worsened ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting but sizeable deals were well-received in both bond and equity markets....
05 May 2022 Thomas McCartin
Market attention shifts towards lockdowns in mainland China as lower manufacturing activity suggests less demand for inputs
05 May 2022 Lindsay Newman Deepa Kumar
Despite intermittent ceasefire talks, no clear offramp to the conflict in Ukraine has yet emerged - our researchers look at possible scenarios...
04 May 2022 Todd C. Lee
Did the dollar’s weaponization against Russia initiate an irreversible fracturing of the global financial system?
02 May 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP declined 0.4% in March.
28 April 2022 Michael Dall
After a brief respite, commodity prices climbed last week
26 April 2022 Brian Lawson
US 10-year reference yields have risen 50 basis points during April – but sizeable supply continues to be absorbed successfully.
26 April 2022 Sara Johnson Elisabeth WaelbroeckRocha, Ph.D.
World real GDP growth will likely slow to 3.2% in 2022; Supply resilience is key to avoiding a global recession
20 April 2022 Diego Iscaro Bibianna Norek
If the incumbent president loses the election, the most significant policy divergence will be a shift in foreign policy, particularly with regard...
20 April 2022 Tal Dickstein
The prospect of a Russian coal ban in Europe prevents commodity prices from falling outright
13 April 2022 Brian Lawson
The prospect of increased oil supply provides some relief to commodity prices
07 April 2022 Brian Lawson
Although reference yields have risen sharply since early March, equity issuance is improving, and long-dated debt supply is proving resilient. ...
06 April 2022 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in April
06 April 2022 Michael Dall
Doubts over natural gas flows from Russia heighten price volatility last week
03 April 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
Monthly GDP declined 0.1% in February
30 March 2022 Brian Lawson
Key market trends in March to watch include the rise in reference rates and the resilience of supply from riskier asset classes.
28 March 2022 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D.
The current outflows of people from Ukraine represent the fastest growing refugee crisis in Europe since World War II.
25 March 2022 Tal Dickstein
Our Weekly pricing pulse: prices pull back from record highs
23 March 2022 Chris Suckling, Ph.D. Alexia Ash
Using a nuanced CRP to evaluate PRI coverage provides a more accurate assessment of risk
23 March 2022 Brian Lawson
During last week, Nigeria and Turkey successfully reopened emerging market supply, while Russia sovereign default reportedly was averted for...
22 March 2022 Sara Johnson
Russia-Ukraine war has fundamentally changed the global geopolitical landscape with impacts on economic & GDP recovery especially in US, Europe...
17 March 2022 Vaiva Seckute
Russian-Ukrainian war exacerbates labor shortage, supply chain and transportation disruption, and global trade leading to broad-based implications...
16 March 2022 Michael Dall
Our MPI jumped 5% as commodity prices surge on supply concerns and volatile trading conditions
10 March 2022 Ken Wattret
The soaring of global inflation rates driven by rising energy prices and other goods is aggravated by the economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine...
09 March 2022 Michael Dall
MPI climbs to all-time high as traders scramble to secure supply
09 March 2022 William Farmer Theo Acheampong, Ph.D. Peter Gardett Natznet Tesfay Davdi Li
SSA countries received insufficient financial pledges at COP26 to cover their full climate adaptation needs, but they did receive substantial...
08 March 2022 Rafael Amiel, Ph.D. Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
A state by state look at economic growth in Mexico
04 March 2022 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in March
04 March 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP was flat (0.0%) in January 2022.
04 March 2022 Michael Dall
MPI climbs to eleven-year high as panic grips commodity markets. Energy prices were the main contributor to the MPI’s increase last week.
24 February 2022 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Increases in CRP scores were driven by costs associated with capital transfer and expropriation risks in onshore gas and oil projects
24 February 2022 Paula Diosquez-Rice Carla Selman
With the deal, Argentina would avoid defaulting on its IMF liabilities in 2022 but shifts the risk to beyond 2023.
23 February 2022 Michael Dall
Commodity markets eased last week; first decline in 2022
22 February 2022 Sara Johnson
The global economic expansion will continue at a moderating pace in 2022 and 2023.
22 February 2022 Raj Badiani
The post-COVID-19 UK recovery faces strengthening headwinds, namely rampant inflation squeezing household budgets, persistent supply chain disruptions...
21 February 2022 Jihane Boudiaf
Rapid declines in Sudan’s exports and port calls in the second half of 2021 were caused by disruption resulting from the protest activity and...
17 February 2022 Brian Lawson
Three emerging market issuers including Turkey sold debt successfully this week, despite difficult conditions: Bolivia poses a pending test.
16 February 2022 Michael Dall
Broad gains on commodity markets as buyers snap up raw materials
10 February 2022 Michael Dall
Quieter week on commodity markets but prices continue to climb
08 February 2022 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in February including loan prime rates...
08 February 2022 Veronica Retamales Burford Jose Sevilla-Macip Carlos Caicedo Carla Selman
As we continue to watch global supply chain disruptions our experts take a close look at what this means for specific sectors in Latin America...
07 February 2022 Tom Jackson Steven Frable Karl Kuykendall Fran Hagarty
Our US Regional economists provide insights on their growth expectations for 2022
03 February 2022 Arlene Kish, M.A.
The Bank of Canada's hawkish tone confirms resolute objective to bring inflation back to 2% target.
02 February 2022 Anna Boyd
A closer look at current practices in the field of social license, the bedrock of the S in ESG, reveals the opportunity to shift ESG from a compliance...
02 February 2022 Thomas McCartin
Natural gas and coal join oil in showing price strength
01 February 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.1% in December 2021.
01 February 2022 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D. James Petretta
Our country risk team provides a snapshot of the political risk shaping the world in February
01 February 2022 Deepa Kumar
Today is the one year anniversary of the coup in Myanmar. Current expectations: fighting with civilian militias likely, political resolution...
31 January 2022 Yasmine Ghozzi Ralf Wiegert Jihane Boudiaf
The MENA region has been increasingly affected by water-related issues. How will this increase the risks to economic development, and for violent...
26 January 2022 Michael Dall
Since the end of November 2021, commodity markets have seen extraordinary volatility. This week oil reaches a seven-year high to send the MPI...
24 January 2022 Sara Johnson
Worldwide inflation will likely remain near 5.0% in early 2022 before gradually easing
24 January 2022 Ken Wattret
Eurozone house price inflation hit a record high in Q3 2021, with upward momentum picking up during the COVID-19 pandemic.
19 January 2022 Michael Dall
Industrial metal prices spike to send the MPI higher last week.
11 January 2022 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk team explores key issues, trends, and developments that are likely to change the risk outlooks for banks at a regional level...
07 January 2022 Jihane Boudiaf
Hamdok’s resignation leaves the military in de facto control of the country by force but lacking in legitimacy. What's next?
06 January 2022 Diego Iscaro
Net purchases will be substantially lower than in 2021, but reinvestments of assets already on the ECB’s balance sheet will continue to provide...
06 January 2022 Thomas McCartin
Natural gas prices retreat, pulling the MPI lower
05 January 2022 Rafael Amiel, Ph.D. Jeremy Smith Carlos Caicedo
Latin America begins 2022 in fragile condition given the COVID-19 economic impact, a deteriorated fiscal position, weak FDI, and high inflation....
03 January 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly US GDP declined 0.8% in November.
03 January 2022 Alyssa Grzelak
The banking sector avoided a major crisis in 2021. Will 2022 fair as well? Risks and uncertainty remain heightened
22 December 2021 Michael Dall
Natural gas prices surge once more, driving the MPI higher
21 December 2021 Patrick Newport, Ph.D.
According to the Census Bureau, the estimated population of the US grew by 0.1%, the lowest rate since the nation’s founding
21 December 2021 Jamil Naayem
The MENA region will witness healthy economic growth in the near term amid rising hydrocarbon revenues and ongoing COVID vaccination, but downside...
20 December 2021 Todd Lee, Ph.D. Sara Johnson Rajiv Biswas Ken Wattret John Mothersole Joel Prakken, Ph.D. Elisabeth WaelbroeckRocha Chris Varvares Brian Lawson
Following a 5.6% rebound in 2021, Real GDP growth will settle at 4.3% in 2022. Our Our top 10 economic predictions for 2022 highlights what's...
20 December 2021
The supply chain crisis is one with many facets. What we're seeing is not only disruptive. It's historic—the first major disjunction in the synchronized...
14 December 2021 Michael Dall
Watching our MPI we note that market volatility is now driving commodity prices higher
14 December 2021 Akshat Goel
The pandemic rages on, but that won’t stop Americans from spending with gusto—holiday sales up 16.6%.
10 December 2021 Vaiva Seckute
House price increases in Europe accelerated since end-2020 despite GDP contractions - what's the downside risk?
08 December 2021 Michael Dall
Renewed threat from Omicron sends commodity prices down
08 December 2021 William Farmer
Growing land-rights risks due to climate impacts and 2022 elections in Kenya leads to an increase in violence.
03 December 2021 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in December.
02 December 2021 Petya Barzilska Lindsay Newman, Ph.D. Jose Sevilla-Macip Blanka Kolenikova Alex Kokcharov
Traditional drivers of irregular migration including security and conflict have an impact on everything from supply chains and labor markets...
01 December 2021 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly US GDP rose 1.5% in October.
01 December 2021 Michael Dall
Rising metal prices send commodities higher, but downside risks emerge
30 November 2021 Brian Lawson
Capital Markets Weekly: Supply affected by Thanksgiving holiday and renewed COVID-related concerns
24 November 2021 Michael Dall
Volatility in natural gas markets send commodity prices higher last week
23 November 2021 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
Projects located in sub-Saharan Africa have recorded the largest increase in Country Risk Premiums (CRPs) since the third-quarter update, as...
23 November 2021 Sara Johnson
S&P Global forecasts global real GDP will increase 5.5% in 2021, 4.2% in 2022
22 November 2021 Alyssa Grzelak
What's in store for the global financial sector in 2022? Our banking risk expert, Alyssa Grzelak, provides some insights
22 November 2021 Evan Andrade
Strong energy exports provided some offset for automotive trade flows that saw a second consecutive month of substantial losses.
19 November 2021 Alex Cotter
What's' happening to the US housing market? These four trends are ones to watch
19 November 2021 Arlene Kish, M.A.
Temporary high inflation will persist as the Bank of Canada shifts to reinvestment phase which will then be followed by policy tightening in...
17 November 2021 Michael Dall
Commodity markets remain rattled, but price correction bodes well for inflation outlook
11 November 2021 Brian Lawson
A sizeable and broad-ranging debt calendar indicates limited fallout from the Federal Reserve’s tapering decision.
11 November 2021 Yasmine Ghozzi
Recent pressures on Egypt’s short-term funding were largely reversed with Saudi Arabia’s announcement on 31 October that it is providing Egypt...
10 November 2021 Michael Dall
Mainland Chinese intervention sparks a broad commodity sell-off
09 November 2021 Petya Barzilska Dijedon Imeri
The European Commission’s policy proposals to change the European Union’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) and the corollary Carbon Border Adjustment...
09 November 2021 Chris Suckling, Ph.D. Brian Lawson
The UN’s new repo facility for African debt targets a USD30 billion size and USD11 billion regional issuance cost savings over five years.
09 November 2021 Todd Lee, Ph.D.
The unique characteristics of the Chinese economy have further fueled the Chinese property sector’s expansion and caused it to become excessively...
08 November 2021 Rajiv Biswas Elisabeth WaelbroeckRocha
The shortage of semiconductors has created issues all along the supply chain. Our experts explore what risks could further impact the supply...
05 November 2021 Thea Fourie
What's driving the economy in SSA? Our Expert Thea Fourie provides some insights
04 November 2021 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D. James Petretta
Our country risk team provides a snapshot of the events shaping the world in November including climate policy, elections, and an economic forum...
04 November 2021 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in November including looser mortgage...
03 November 2021 Tal Dickstein
Prices for eight of the ten MPI sub-components fell last week
03 November 2021 Lilit Gevorgyan
The Central Bank of Russia surprised financial markets by a bold 75- basis point increase during its October rate-setting meeting, a move projected...
02 November 2021 Evan Andrade
August retail sales rose 2.1% m/m with strong underlying details, but a pull-back in the September figure is expected.
01 November 2021 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.2% in September.
29 October 2021 Brian Lawson
Diverse issuers from mainland China, elsewhere in Asia and other emerging markets are issuing successfully despite Chinese property-sector stress....
29 October 2021 Akshat Goel
Spending on Halloween candy in the US expected to reach record high of $3.1 billion in October
28 October 2021 Michael Dall
Mainland China announces plans to tackle high coal prices bringing price relief last week
28 October 2021 Ken Wattret
Persistent upward pressure on inflation, and inflation expectations, have increased the chance of an imminent Bank of England rate rise.
27 October 2021 Jamil Naayem Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch Andrew Birch
The Afghan political transformation will have varying economic effects on its immediate neighbors – Pakistan, Tajikistan, Iran, Turkmenistan...
26 October 2021 Chulwoo Hong
All housing starts segments in Canada fell as urban single and multiple starts decreased 5.9% m/m and 4.0% m/m, respectively.
21 October 2021 Sara Johnson
Latest on our Global forecast: Real GDP will increase 5.5% in 2021, 4.3% in 2022
18 October 2021 Vaiva Seckute Sharon Fisher
Although demand currently remains strong, Central and Eastern European countries face considerable pressures with supply-chain bottlenecks related...
14 October 2021 Brian Lawson
This week’s issuance highlight was the EU’s debut Green bond which raised a record EUR12 billion, attracting EUR135 billion of demand.
13 October 2021 Ken Matheny, Ph.D. Chris Varvares
Fed to begin increasing interest rates in March 2023; end asset purchases in June 2022
13 October 2021 Michael Dall
Tumult in gas markets fuels global inflation fears
12 October 2021 Ken Wattret
Soaring energy prices will fuel a further acceleration in already elevated HICP inflation but ECB policy will continue to be driven by prospects...
12 October 2021 Joel Prakken, Ph.D. Chris Varvares
Ongoing COVID concerns and worsening supply issues delay even more growth beyond 2021 as we downgrade our US GDP forecast from 5.7% to 5.4%
08 October 2021 Alex Cotter
Fraught with supply chain issues and rising costs, what trends can we expect to see in the next 5 years?
08 October 2021
Understanding the full pricture of risk within a sector and a county can change investment decisions - what would you have done differently if...
07 October 2021 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D. James Petretta
Our country risk team provides a snapshot of the events shaping the world in October
06 October 2021 Michael Dall
Rising oil and natural gas prices as seen on our MPI rekindle inflation fears
05 October 2021 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in October.
05 October 2021 Thea Fourie Brian Lawson Anton Casteleijn
New technology is changing the financial landscape in Africawith the development of central bank digital currencies
05 October 2021 Anna Boyd
ESG metrics have become benchmarks for corporate credibility, meaning social license is serious business for companies whose activities impact...
04 October 2021 Veronica Burford Carlos Cardenas Carla Selman Ailsa Rosales
A look at what is going to drive civil unrest across Latin America in the coming months
01 October 2021 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly US GDP rose 1.0% in August.
01 October 2021 Brian Lawson
Belize’s debt restructuring was accepted by bondholders and is slated to be funded through marine-focused Blue Bonds with potential US support...
29 September 2021 Michael Dall
Metal prices drop further sending the MPI down again
24 September 2021 Brian Lawson
Both Nigeria and Egypt have completed sizeable debt sales, with little disruption from Evergrande’s debt stress.
22 September 2021 Thomas McCartin
Iron ore and natural gas dominate commodity price moves
22 September 2021 Brian Lawson
This early blog focuses on Industrial and Commercial Bank of China’s USD6.16 billion perpetual AT1 deal, one of three Asian perpetual deals sold...
20 September 2021 Yacine Rouimi Sam Wilkinson Keerti Rajan Chris Suckling, Ph.D. Celine Buechel
Electric vehicles (EV) transition shapes demand for EV batteries and mineral feedstocks. Find out about country risks that could impact the supply...
16 September 2021 Brian Lawson
This week’s supply included successful issuance by Indonesia, Turkey, Hungary, and Chile, alongside a heavy ESG calendar.
15 September 2021 Thomas McCartin
Surging natural gas prices were offset by another large decline in iron ore that pulled the MPI lower for a sixth week in a row
14 September 2021 John Raines, Ph.D.
Despite the increased divisiveness of Canada’s election campaign, as evidenced by vocal special interest groups targeting campaign stops, any...
14 September 2021 Vaiva Seckute
Further dips in birth in the near future are likely, but accelerated declines in fertility rates are not expected in most cases. However, underperformers...
13 September 2021 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.
The largest reductions in our overall Country Risk Premiums (CRPs) – the additional rate of return require to adjust for country risk – were...
09 September 2021 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D. James Petretta
Our country risk team provides a snapshot of the events shaping the world in September
09 September 2021 Brian Lawson
In a highly active week for debt sales, this week’s most notable developments involve the European ESG sector.
08 September 2021 Michael Dall
Ferrous prices drop further sending the MPI down last week
08 September 2021 Natasha McSwiggan
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in September
07 September 2021 Chris Williamson
The Delta waves hits some of the major indsutries but boosts the healthcare services as well as pharmaceuticals and biotech sector according...
02 September 2021 Jan Gerhard
Germany will hold the most competitive and open general election in decades on 26 September, with considerable uncertainty about who will follow...
02 September 2021 Brian Lawson
Despite intensive investor focus on when the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank will taper their asset purchases, market activity revived...
01 September 2021 Tal Dickstein
Market optimism temporarily overcomes fears over the Delta variant and weaker growth
01 September 2021 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.
According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly US GDP rose 0.2% in July
01 September 2021 José Sevilla-Macip Carla Selman Ailsa Rosales
Although Latin America possesses roughly 30% of the world’s freshwater resources, mismanagement, overexploitation, pollution, and climate change-related...
31 August 2021 Ralf Wiegert
The global recovery from COVID-19 remains at risk as virus variants are spreading, prompting governments to order new lockdowns across many regions...
27 August 2021 Lilit Gevorgyan
Ukraine's economic recovery faltered in the second quarter most likely due to the drag from net exports, and weak industrial activity
26 August 2021 Petya Barzilska Jan Gerhard Dijedon Imeri Diego Iscaro Bibianna Norek
The proposed Energy Taxation Directive points to an increasingly important role of environmental taxes in the EU.
26 August 2021 Brian Lawson
Euro-denominated supply has revived with four negative yielding deals and three corporate hybrids this week.
25 August 2021 Michael Dall
Fears over the Delta variant and weaker economic data spark further commodity price declines
24 August 2021 Thea Fourie
Employment recovers in sub-Saharan Africa, but not enough to make a dent in unemployment levels
24 August 2021 Sara Johnson
Global real GDP projected to increase 5.7% in 2021 as global economic expansion moves forward through headwinds from the Delta variant of COVID-19...
23 August 2021 William Farmer Eva Renon
Foreign troop deployment in Mozambique likely to reduce insurgent capability, but dispersal of insurgents across Niassa, Cabo Delgado provinces...
18 August 2021 Yasmine Ghozzi
Egypt’s president calls to raise the price of government subsidized bread for the first time in decades in a speech, on 3 August, and hinted...
18 August 2021 Michael Dall
Weaker demand signals weigh on commodities, sending prices lower
16 August 2021 Brian Lawson
Following strong US employment data for July, almost fifty issuers sold debt in just two days
11 August 2021 Michael Dall
Ferrous prices record third largest weekly drop on record sending the MPI sharply down
10 August 2021 Deepa Kumar Asad Ali
Taliban’s escalating military offensive in Afghanistan unlikely to represent a broader shift in intent to take control the militarily
10 August 2021 Metin Epozdemir
Reverse stress testing encourages institutions to explore the fault lines in their business models and vulnerabilities in their risk exposures....
04 August 2021 Michael Dall
Soaring natural gas prices and an oil rebound send commodities higher
