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Featured
Blog 13 hours ago

US Weekly Economic Commentary: Whew!

Blog 20 hours ago

India’s global ambitions

Blog Jun 03, 2023

Inflection point: Why lower core inflation is key to Europe’s economic and financial outlook

Blog Jun 02, 2023

US Monthly GDP Index for April 2023

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  1. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Whew!

    05 June 2023 Lawrence Nelson Chris Varvares Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    Recent news from the labor market must be more than a little troubling to Fed policy makers.

    • Labor Markets
    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  2. India’s global ambitions

    05 June 2023 Gauri Jauhar Deepa Kumar Ashima Tyagi

    Recent global events have prompted India to recalibrate its geopolitical strategy as it focuses on manufacturing to manifest its ambitions.

    • Labor Markets
    • Energy Transition
    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
  3. Inflection point: Why lower core inflation is key to Europe’s economic and financial outlook

    02 June 2023 Ken Wattret

    S&P Global Market Intelligence addresses a series of key questions related to inflation trends in the eurozone.

    • Inflation Rates
    • Inflation
    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  4. US Monthly GDP Index for April 2023

    01 June 2023 Caroline Foshee Ben Herzon

    According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly US GDP rose 0.4% in April.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  5. Weekly Pricing Pulse: A tepid Asian market ushers commodity prices lower

    01 June 2023 Michael Dall

    Materials prices continue to fall amid a concerned market per our MPI

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  6. Washing machine learning: Years of change in home appliance supply chains

    30 May 2023 Chris Rogers

    Cost-optimizing strategies for supply chains involve making determinations on the number, scale and location of suppliers.

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Supply Chain Logistics
    • Labor Markets
  7. Egypt’s inflation temporarily softens in April; more social spending assigned in new budget

    26 May 2023 Yasmine Ghozzi

    With a short-lived breather from elevated inflation, we expect prices to accelerate in May.

    • Inflation
    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  8. Risks and opportunities in sub-Saharan Africa’s housing market

    24 May 2023 Ronel Oberholzer Ana Souto

    The sub-Sahara African real estate market is less extended and more reliant on informal options, reducing the threat of sharp downside corrections...

    • Housing Markets
    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  9. US Weekly Economic Commentary: The X-date files

    22 May 2023 Lawrence Nelson Joel Prakken Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    X-date may arrive before the FOMC meeting next month, with the potential to shift the views of the Committee away from its tightening bias.

    • Political Risk
    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  10. An asynchronous global economic expansion

    22 May 2023 Sara Johnson

    The global economic expansion will proceed at a moderate pace, led by service sectors.

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  11. US debt ceiling standoff: What you need to know

    19 May 2023 John Raines

    Our baseline forecast remains that the White House and congressional leadership will complete a last-minute negotiated compromise.

    • Sovereign Risk
    • Political Risk
    • Economic Risk
    • Credit Risk
    • Country risk
    • Banking Risk
  12. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices down as bearish sentiment remains

    19 May 2023 Michael Dall

    Commodity prices fall last week as inflation outlook worsens - per our MPI

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  13. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Below-trend growth this year amid stubborn inflation

    15 May 2023 Lawrence Nelson Joel Prakken Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    We saw little new data last week to influence our expectation that real GDP will decline 0.1% in the second quarter.

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  14. Euro adoption: After Croatia, who's next?

    15 May 2023 Shuchita Shukla Dragana Ignjatovic Anja Heimann

    Political will from existing and aspiring members will be more decisive than the Maastricht criteria in the eurozone accession timelines.

    • Political Risk
    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
  15. S&P Global Investment Manager Index (IMI) reveals risk appetite at survey low in May

    11 May 2023 Jingyi Pan

    Latest S&P Global Investment Manager Index data revealed that risk sentiment rests at a survey record low in May

  16. EV manufacturing race: Which US states are taking an early lead?

    11 May 2023 Karl Kuykendall

    The traditional US automotive belt that spans from the Midwest to the Southeast has taken a huge slice of the investment pie to date.

    • Political Risk
    • Labor Markets
    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  17. Navigating geopolitical headwinds

    10 May 2023 Lindsay Newman

    The defining feature of the geopolitical era unfolding around us is an accelerating interdependence between economic and security spheres.

    • Trade Policy
    • Security Risk
    • Political Risk
    • Economic Risk
    • Country risk
  18. US Weekly Commentary: Tighter financial conditions needed

    08 May 2023 Lawrence Nelson Chris Varvares Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    The Federal Reserve may have still more work to do if things don’t change pretty quickly.

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  19. Resource nationalism in West Africa

    08 May 2023 Martin Roberts

    Requirements that companies commit to greater local content and domestic processing of resources are likely in the one- to three-year outlook....

    • Political Risk
    • Operational Risk
    • Economic Risk
    • Country risk
  20. Banking risk monthly outlook: May 2023

    05 May 2023 Natasha McSwiggan

    Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in May.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
  21. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Widespread drop in materials prices amid sluggish manufacturing demand

    05 May 2023 Thomas McCartin

    Elevated materials prices continue to normalize as supply remains adequate to meet current demand levels

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  22. Brazil’s inflation falls and there may be room for easing monetary policy this year

    05 May 2023 Rafael Amiel Pollyanna De Lima

    The current rate is significantly high and lagged effects of previous monetary tightening by Brazil’s central bank will continue to work.

    • Political Risk
    • Monetary Policy
    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  23. Romania successfully accelerates EU funds absorption in 2022; 2023 may be challenging

    04 May 2023 Shuchita Shukla

    Further disbursements to Romania under the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility hinge on the government passing contentious reforms.

    • Political Risk
    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
  24. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Storm clouds building

    01 May 2023 Lawrence Nelson Chris Varvares Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    The expected softness in the second quarter leaves open the possibility that the US will slip into recession by midyear.

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  25. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices dip as oil demand weakens

    28 April 2023 Michael Dall

    Prices down last week as Eurozone manufacturing data disappoints - per our MPI

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  26. Vulnerable housing and real estate markets

    27 April 2023 Todd C. Lee Ronel Oberholzer Rajiv Biswas Patrick Newport Diego Iscaro Anja Heimann

    Tightening monetary conditions are driving a softening of house prices, which in some key markets are expected to decline in 2023 and 2024.

    • Housing Markets
    • Economic Risk
    • Consumer Spending
  27. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Soft data paint mixed picture amid slowing economy

    25 April 2023 Lawrence Nelson Joel Prakken Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    Last week was a busy one for “soft” data and results from several surveys painted a mixed picture of economic conditions.

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  28. The global economy shows resilience in the face of tightening financial conditions

    24 April 2023 Sara Johnson

    World real GDP projected to increase 2.3% in 2023, 2.7% in 2024

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  29. Political scenarios for Turkey’s presidential and general elections

    20 April 2023 Jessica Leyland Andrew Birch

    We examine potential electoral scenarios and their policy implications over a 12-month outlook from the election date.

    • Political Risk
    • Economic Risk
    • Country risk
  30. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities lower as inflation remains stubbornly high

    20 April 2023 Michael Dall

    Prices were down last week as markets await further interest rate rises.

    • Petrochemical Markets
    • Oil Markets Supply, Demand and Pricing
    • Natural Gas / LNG Markets
    • Metal Markets
    • Commodities
  31. Chile and Peru’s copper for energy transition

    18 April 2023 Veronica Retamales Burford Johanna Marris Carla Selman

    Chile and Peru face the challenge of rapidly expanding the output capacity amid regulatory and political uncertainty.

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Political Risk
    • Operational Risk
    • Government Policy & Regulations
    • Energy Transition
    • Country risk
  32. World cup hosting lifts Qatar’s real GDP growth to 8.0% YOY in Q4; slower growth ahead

    18 April 2023 Jamil Naayem

    Robust Q4 economic activity lifted real GDP growth to close to 4.8% in 2022, a level unseen since the middle of the last decade.

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Country risk
  33. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Solid growth and elevated inflation still shining through

    17 April 2023 Lawrence Nelson Joel Prakken Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    New data on sales encouraged us to revise up our estimate of first-quarter real PCE growth to a very robust 4.8% (annualized).

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  34. Mexico likely to pass restrictive legal changes to mining and state contract procedures

    12 April 2023 Jose Sevilla-Macip

    Discretionary government use of the proposed legal tools for political purposes would entail a significant increase in contract uncertainty.

    • Political Risk
    • Operational Risk
    • Legal Risk
    • Country risk
  35. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Big wheel keeps on turning — but it’s slowing

    10 April 2023 Lawrence Nelson Chris Varvares Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    There is rough sledding ahead; we just can’t say for sure where the bumps and valleys are.

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  36. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities higher as contagion fears wane

    07 April 2023 Michael Dall

    Commodity prices supported last week by hope banking crises will be contained - insights from our MPI

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  37. Brazil–China strategic partnership

    06 April 2023 Alejandro DuranCarrete Ailsa Rosales

    Brazil–China trade seminar generates multiple agreements to deepen bilateral business links

    • Economic Risk
    • Country Intelligence
  38. State fiscal reserves at historic highs ahead of impending slowdown

    06 April 2023 Fran Hagarty

    Continued inflationary challenges and the exhaustion of federal stimulus will limit rainy day fund growth in the near term

    • Regional, state and metro-level economic forecasts
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  39. Banking risk monthly outlook: April 2023

    05 April 2023 Natasha McSwiggan

    Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in April

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
  40. Eurozone’s tight labor market still faces low wage/price spiral

    05 April 2023 Diego Iscaro Anja Heimann

    High inflation and a tight labor market in the eurozone will drive nominal wage growth higher in the short term.

    • Labor Markets
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  41. Sub-Saharan African currencies will be more vulnerable to exchange rate pressures in 2023

    03 April 2023 Thea Fourie Ronel Oberholzer Archbold Macheka Anton Casteleijn Alisa Strobel

    Dwindling external buffers raise sub-Saharan African currency depreciation risks, but capital controls unlikely.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
  42. US Monthly GDP Index for February 2023

    03 April 2023 Caroline Foshee Ben Herzon

    According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.2% in February

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  43. Baltic states grapple with high unemployment rates for Ukrainian refugees

    03 April 2023 Shuchita Shukla

    The challenge for 2023 is to increase the absorption of refugees in the Baltic labor markets.

    • Labor Markets
    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  44. Opposition to Israeli government’s proposed judicial changes

    30 March 2023 Kevjn Lim

    Single-day strikes have by now affected most of the economy and will likely become protracted if dialogue fails.

    • Security Risk
    • Political Violence
    • Political Risk
    • Country risk
  45. The economic consequences of coordinated cyber-attacks

    30 March 2023 Diego Iribarren Cassandra Pagan

    The world’s seaports are one of the global economy’s principal vulnerabilities as they can act as enablers of shocks that may spread globally....

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Security Risk
    • Operational Risk
    • Economic Risk
    • Cyber Risk Management
  46. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Fed keeps thumb on inflation after banking turmoil

    27 March 2023 Lawrence Nelson Juan Turcios Joel Prakken Akshat Goel

    The Fed acknowledged that a contraction of credit emanating from banking sector turmoil was likely to create new headwinds for the economy.

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  47. Czech technical recession against strong Romanian growth in 2022

    27 March 2023 Shuchita Shukla

    Czechia and Romania represent the two ends of CEE-4 GDP performance last year, reflecting their relative external exposures.

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  48. Sri Lanka secures IMF funding; austerity measures likely to worsen civil unrest risks

    24 March 2023 Hannah Cotillon Angus Lam

    The initial IMF disbursement will provide temporary relief but austerity measures will be unpopular

    • Sovereign Risk
    • Security Risk
    • Political Risk
    • Economic Risk
    • Country risk
    • Banking Risk
  49. Eurozone flash PMI signals faster than expected growth in March

    24 March 2023 Chris Williamson

    Eurozone economic growth accelerated to a ten-month high in March according to the latest flash PMI survey data

  50. GDP growth in sub-Saharan Africa likely to slow in 2023

    24 March 2023 Thea Fourie

    In 2023, growth in sub-Saharan Africa will slow further on the expectation of weaker global growth.

    • ESG Investing
    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Country risk
  51. Assessing the debt market fallout from banking sector instability

    24 March 2023 Brian Lawson

    A look at the bond market impacts of recent banking sector instability.

    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
  52. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities down amid market turmoil

    23 March 2023 Michael Dall

    Financial sector woes spread to commodity markets last week as seen in our MPI

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  53. Banking stresses amplify economic risks

    21 March 2023 Sara Johnson

    Actions by central banks and regulators to provide liquidity and broaden deposit insurance will likely avert a major financial crisis, but the...

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
  54. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Financial turbulence reflects and creates uncertainty

    20 March 2023 Lawrence Nelson Joel Prakken Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    Recent financial turbulence is reflecting uncertainty about the underlying health of the banking system, casting a shadow over the value of assets...

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
  55. Argentina’s balance between debt and fiscal management and electoral objectives in 2023

    20 March 2023 Paula Diosquez-Rice

    For the next two political terms, Argentina’s next two governments will face heavy external debt service requirements.

    • Political Risk
    • Fiscal Policy
    • Economic Risk
    • Country risk
  56. UK house prices in February posted largest annual fall since end-2012

    16 March 2023 Raj Badiani

    Housing market activity and prices will come under persistent pressure during 2023.

    • Housing Markets
    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  57. Saudi-Iranian agreement indicates intent for de-escalation and more independent Saudi policy

    16 March 2023 Kevjn Lim Jack A. Kennedy

    The agreement likely reflects a wider attempt by Saudi leadership to reset perceptions of Saudi Arabia as a stabilizing actor in the region.

    • Security Risk
    • Political Risk
    • Economic Risk
    • Country risk
  58. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities edge higher despite market turmoil

    16 March 2023 Michael Dall

    Equity sell-off not enough to stop commodity price rises last week per our MPI

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  59. Kenya revives power purchase agreements, aiding foreign investment efforts

    15 March 2023 William Farmer

    Resuming the issuance of PPAs and deprioritizing contract renegotiations aligns with the government’s aim to increase foreign direct investment....

    • Renewables
    • Power Market Investment Strategies
    • Power Market Contracts
    • Electric Power Markets
    • Economic Risk
    • Country risk
  60. Silicon Valley Bank failure complicates Fed’s job to slow inflation to 2%

    14 March 2023 Chris Varvares

    With inflation remaining well above the Fed’s 2% target, we should expect increases in the policy rate to continue.

    • Monetary Policy
    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
  61. Tripwires that could signal trouble for Iran’s nuclear talks

    10 March 2023 Kevjn Lim

    We identify seven tripwires that would indicate that a collapse in Iran’s nuclear talks was becoming more likely.

    • Security Risk
    • Political Risk
    • Country risk
  62. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Marginal gain for commodities amid subdued trading

    09 March 2023 Michael Dall

    Official data offered few signals for future growth and limited price movement per our MPI

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  63. Banking risk monthly outlook: March 2023

    09 March 2023 Natasha McSwiggan

    Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in March

    • Economic Data
    • Country Intelligence
    • Banking Risk
  64. Hard core: Underlying price pressures to extend ECB rate-hiking cycle

    07 March 2023 Ken Wattret

    Soaring alternative inflation metrics cement the case for additional 50bp rate hikes for the EU

    • Inflation Rates
    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  65. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Inflation elevated, rates headed higher

    06 March 2023 Lawrence Nelson Joel Prakken Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    The risk of an imminent recession has receded, and the risk of imbedded high inflation has risen.

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  66. US Monthly GDP Index for January 2023

    02 March 2023 Caroline Foshee Ben Herzon

    According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.3% in January.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  67. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities edge lower as inflation fears resurface

    02 March 2023 Michael Dall

    Strong US inflation data concerns traders but mainland China optimism remains

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  68. Resource shortages likely to disrupt critical supply chains in South Africa

    01 March 2023 Thea Fourie Nezo Sobekwa Langelihle Malimela Evan Burger

    The mining, agriculture, automobile, and energy sectors, all of which are heavy users of water, are likely to be impacted.

    • Water
    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Political Risk
    • Oil & Gas Resources
    • Economic Risk
    • Automotive Supply Chain
  69. The economic and operational impacts in Syria-Turkey earthquake zones

    27 February 2023 Jessica Leyland Andrew Birch

    Outside of the vast human and social impacts of the earthquake, the biggest national economic impact will be on the fiscal deficit.

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Ports and terminals
    • Political Risk
    • Economic Risk
  70. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Stubborn inflation clouds the outlook

    27 February 2023 Lawrence Nelson Chris Varvares Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    The odds of recession beginning in the first half of 2023 have receded somewhat over the last few weeks.

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  71. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities down as energy crisis recedes

    23 February 2023 Michael Dall

    Worst-case scenario in European energy markets is avoided which is helping to lower commodity prices

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  72. The global economy moves forward, averting recession

    22 February 2023 Sara Johnson

    The global economic outlook has brightened, with the major economies showing resilience in early 2023. However, persistent core inflation will...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  73. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Stronger for longer?

    21 February 2023 Lawrence Nelson Joel Prakken Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    We revised up our tracking forecast for first-quarter US GDP growth, following a huge increase in retail sales and food services in January.

    • Federal Reserve Policy
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  74. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices slide amid weak mainland China demand

    16 February 2023 Michael Dall

    The much-anticipated resurgence in Mainland China manufacturing remains elusive

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  75. Securing semiconductor supplies in the EU

    16 February 2023 Petya Barzilska Jan Gerhard Dijedon Imeri Blanka Kolenikova

    The EU is building tools to allow greater public control in situations of severe supply chain disruptions.

    • Trade Policy
    • Technology & Processes
    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Supply Chain Logistics
    • Government Policy & Regulations
  76. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Inching towards recession as markets play chicken with the Fed

    13 February 2023 Lawrence Nelson Chris Varvares Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    Financial markets are pricing in doubt that the FOMC will push its policy rate as high, or for as long, as Fed communications suggest.

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  77. Russia-Ukraine war: One year on

    10 February 2023 Alex Kokcharov

    Ukraine’s ability to counter a likely Russian offensive in the coming months and resist the Russian air campaign will hinge on military assistance....

    • Security Risk
    • Political Risk
    • Country risk
    • Country Intelligence
  78. The shifting global semiconductor landscape in Asia-Pacific

    10 February 2023 Rajiv Biswas Pollyanna De Lima Petya Barzilska Ling-Wei Chung Laura Denman John Raines Hannah Cotillon Brian Lawson

    Public policy initiatives, driven by supply chain and national security concerns, will change the global configuration of the semiconductor sector....

    • Trade Policy
    • Technology & Processes
    • Supply Chain Risk
  79. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities down on bearish outlook

    09 February 2023 Michael Dall

    Falling energy prices continue and weaker demand remains the major influence on commodity markets

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  80. Banking risk monthly outlook: February 2023

    08 February 2023 Natasha McSwiggan

    Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in February.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
  81. Top US regional economic predictions for 2023

    07 February 2023 Steven Frable Karl Kuykendall Fran Hagarty

    This coming US recession will have less of a regional theme than past ones given its mild nature and broad-based drivers.

    • Regional, state and metro-level economic forecasts
    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
  82. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Surprisingly strong employment in January

    06 February 2023 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    The latest economic data hint at the possibility that the US might avoid rolling over into a (mild) recession as soon as the first quarter.

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  83. Where to find the fastest adoption rates for blockchain technology

    06 February 2023 Alisa Strobel

    Sub-Saharan Africa is achieving the fastest adoption rates for blockchain technology globally.

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Agriculture Traceability
  84. Rising cost of living is likely to fuel protests in Europe in 2023

    03 February 2023 Bibianna Norek

    The risk of violence during protests is likely to be highest in France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Germany.

    • Labor Markets
    • Environmental Policy
    • Economic Risk
  85. Threat to the energy transition from capital costs

    02 February 2023 Rob Marshall

    Our case study underlines the danger that companies may be overstating the business risks associated with renewable energy investments in emerging...

    • Renewables
    • Investment Economics
    • ESG Investing
    • Energy Investment Analysis
    • Energy Capital Investments
    • Carbon & renewable energy
  86. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Falling energy prices mark the start of a New Lunar Year for commodity markets

    01 February 2023

    Falling energy prices define the commodity landscape this week, leading to a decline in the MPI

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  87. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Don’t be fooled by Q4 GDP

    30 January 2023 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    Underlying demand growth is weak, supporting our expectation that GDP growth will turn negative in early 2023.

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  88. Bank of Canada pauses monetary policy

    30 January 2023 Arlene Kish

    The Bank of Canada will remain on the sidelines throughout this year before it even contemplates cutting interest rates. 

    • Monetary Policy
    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
  89. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices rise on chemical market strength

    26 January 2023

    Gains in chemicals and lumber pushed commodity prices slightly higher for the second consecutive week

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  90. The global economic outlook brightens as inflation eases

    25 January 2023 Sara Johnson

    World real GDP is now projected to increase 1.9% in 2023, up from last month’s forecast of 1.6% growth.

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  91. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Shrinking goods sector

    23 January 2023 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    There has been a notable weakening in consumer demand for goods as reflected in retail sales.

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  92. Mexico’s nearshoring potential likely to grow as alignment with US increases

    20 January 2023 Jose Sevilla-Macip

    The focus on semiconductors and critical minerals during the recent summit emphasized the nearshoring opportunities for Mexico.

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Supply Chain Logistics
  93. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Inflation rounding the corner

    17 January 2023 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    We expect continued declines in both headline and core inflation, consistent with our forecast for a mild recession this year.

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  94. What makes supply chains vulnerable to disruption?

    13 January 2023 Vaiva Seckute

    Sectors with longer supply chains are likely to remain vulnerable to disruptions.

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Supply Chain Logistics
    • Automotive Supply Chain
  95. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices ease at start of 2023

    12 January 2023 Michael Dall

    Falling energy prices and demand concerns send prices slightly lower last week

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  96. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Solid ending to 2022

    09 January 2023 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    We have revised up our estimate of fourth-quarter GDP growth by nearly two percentage points since Dec. 23.

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  97. Top 10 themes to watch for in global banking in 2023

    06 January 2023 Natasha McSwiggan Alyssa Grzelak

    As expected, despite an overhang of risk from the pandemic, global banking sectors again avoided major crises in 2022. Starting 2023, however...

    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
  98. Weekly Pricing Pulse: A mixed week for commodity markets overshadowed by sharp decline in energy prices

    04 January 2023 Thomas McCartin

    Unseasonably warm weather to round out 2022 in Europe and the US relieves natural gas markets.

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  99. US Monthly GDP Index for November 2022

    04 January 2023 Ben Herzon

    According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly US GDP rose 0.4% in November.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  100. Top 10 economic predictions for 2023

    04 January 2023 Yacine Rouimi Vaiva Seckute Todd C. Lee Thea Fourie Sharon Fisher Sara Johnson Rajiv Biswas Ken Wattret John Anton Joel Prakken Jeannine Cataldi Emily Crowley Chris Varvares Bree Neff Alyssa Grzelak

    Central banks' efforts to subdue inflation will dominate the economic landscape in 2023, producing a pronounced slowdown in global economic growth....

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  101. Key themes for Latin America in 2023

    20 December 2022 Veronica Retamales Burford Rafael Amiel Pollyanna De Lima Paula Diosquez-Rice Jose Sevilla-Macip Johanna Marris Claudia Wehbe Carlos Cardenas Carlos Caicedo Carla Selman Alejandro DuranCarrete Ailsa Rosales

    2023 will be marked by economic deceleration, the consolidation of the political left, higher fiscal burden, and greater business disruption...

    • Political Risk
    • Monetary Policy
    • Environmental Policy
    • Economic Risk
    • Country risk
  102. MENA region’s economic growth to slow after strong 2022

    19 December 2022 Jamil Naayem

    MENA’s real GDP growth will likely slow in 2023, as the region’s economies are not immune to weakening global demand and tightening financial...

    • Oil & gas upstream
    • Interest Rates
    • Inflation Rates
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
  103. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Spending, production declines

    19 December 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    We expect that PCE growth will slow to a crawl early next year, as the economy rolls over into what will likely be a mild recession.

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  104. Debt Market conditions improve towards year-end

    19 December 2022 Brian Lawson

    Debt market conditions are improving for riskier asset classes, indicated by both aggregate and issuer-specific factors.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
  105. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Significant price rises for commodities

    16 December 2022 Michael Dall

    Gradual lifting of Chinese COVID-19 restrictions support commodities

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  106. ESG and exclusionary policies affecting Latin America

    14 December 2022 Veronica Retamales Burford Jose Sevilla-Macip Carlos Cardenas Carlos Caicedo Carla Selman Ailsa Rosales

    ESG-related scrutiny will significantly increase for projects in Latin America, especially for ESG-oriented lenders or investors with a focus...

    • ESG Investing
    • Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)
    • Country risk
  107. US Weekly Economic Commentary: 2023 Recession

    12 December 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    Easing of financial conditions since October and the firmness of recent real data suggest a delay in the onset of recession to early 2023.

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  108. Banking risk monthly outlook: December 2022

    12 December 2022 Natasha McSwiggan

    Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in December.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
  109. Regional inequality in the UK: London slows down and still outperforms

    09 December 2022 Phil Smith Marie Lechler, Ph.D.

    We expect London GDP to grow 5.0% year-on-year in 2022, outstripping all other areas of the UK and widening regional inequalities.

    • Regional, state and metro-level economic forecasts
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  110. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices soar

    08 December 2022 Michael Dall

    A European cold snap and loosening Chinese COVID-19 restrictions support commodities

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  111. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Strong labor demand

    05 December 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    We expect the Fed to slow the pace of rate hikes beginning this month and to raise the target for the federal funds rate over the next several...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  112. Water scarcity in Latin America: Operational challenges

    02 December 2022 Veronica Retamales Burford Marie Lechler, Ph.D. Jose Sevilla-Macip Johanna Marris Carlos Caicedo Carla Selman Ailsa Rosales

    Extreme weather events such as water stress, floods, and droughts have led to additional operational challenges in Latin America.

    • Security Risk
    • Operational Risk
    • Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)
    • Country risk
  113. US Monthly GDP Index for October 2022

    01 December 2022 Kathleen Navin Ben Herzon

    Monthly US GDP rose 0.3% in October

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  114. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Tighter COVID-19 containment measures in mainland China pour cold water on market sentiment

    01 December 2022 Thomas McCartin

    Cooler sentiment over the outlook for mainland China’s relaxation of zero-Covid policy has pulled prices lower after the previous week’s increase...

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  115. Vulnerable housing markets in Europe can deepen recessions

    29 November 2022 Vaiva Seckute

    Across Europe residential real estate prices have been rising amid low interest rates, boosting affordability and making investments in real...

    • Inflation
    • Housing Markets
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  116. US Weekly Economic Commentary: More resiliency

    29 November 2022 Ken Matheny Juan Turcios Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    We revised up our forecast of fourth-quarter US GDP growth to a 0.8% annual rate, reflecting sizeable increases in orders and shipments of capital...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  117. The world economy faces an extended cooling off period

    29 November 2022 Sara Johnson

    We project global real GDP growth to slow from 5.9% in 2021 to 2.9% in 2022 and 1.5% in 2023.

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  118. A world rebalancing

    22 November 2022 Lindsay Newman

    five organizing themes that will drive the economic and risk environment in 2023: global security unsettled, energy trade-offs, precarious supply...

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Country risk
  119. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Resilient consumers

    21 November 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    Largely on the resiliency in US retail sales, we revised up our forecast of fourth-quarter US GDP growth by 0.7 percentage point to +0.4%.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Consumer Spending
  120. Outlook for India’s economic growth and policy platforms

    21 November 2022 Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch Deepa Kumar Angus Lam

    India’s ambition to increase its economic power is unlikely to be limited to encouraging foreign investor participation.

    • Government Policy & Regulations
    • Fiscal Policy
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  121. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity price growth returns

    17 November 2022 Michael Dall

    Our MPI signals that better news on US inflation and easing Chinese COVID-19 restrictions boost markets

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  122. Flash PMI preview: November flash PMI data to provide insights into inflation trends and recession risks

    17 November 2022 Jingyi Pan

    November flash PMI data will be eagerly awaited in the coming week to shed light on inflation, employment trends and risks of recession in the...

    • Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
  123. Nominal holiday sales up, real sales down

    16 November 2022 Michael Zdinak Chris Varvares Akshat Goel

    US holiday sales will grow a solid 4.5% in 2022, above the pre-pandemic average of 3.9% and well below the lofty rates seen in recent years.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Consumer Spending
  124. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Fed will downshift to “50”

    14 November 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    The better-than-expected US Consumer Price Index report for October supports a downshift in the pace of Fed rate hikes in December.

    • Inflation
    • Federal Reserve Policy
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  125. Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 14 November 2022

    14 November 2022 Rajiv Biswas Jingyi Pan

    An assortment of data releases packs the week ahead including US and China’s retail sales and industrial production figures.

    • Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
  126. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities down on bearish demand outlook

    08 November 2022 Michael Dall

    Weak global construction prospects spark latest sell-off

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  127. COP27: Framing water scarcity and food security as global issues

    08 November 2022 William Farmer Theo Acheampong Lindsay Newman John Raines Jack A. Kennedy Hannah Cotillon Dijedon Imeri Carla Selman Ailsa Rosales

    Latin American and African representatives are likely to frame water scarcity as a global issue affecting food security to obtain financing commitments....

    • Political Risk
    • Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)
    • Country risk
  128. COP27: Energy security concerns collide with climate agenda

    08 November 2022 William Farmer Theo Acheampong Lindsay Newman John Raines Jack A. Kennedy Hannah Cotillon Dijedon Imeri Carla Selman Ailsa Rosales

    The Russia–Ukraine conflict has severely disrupted energy supply in the EU and forced a near-term policy divergence between energy security and...

    • Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)
    • Economic Data
    • Country risk
  129. Foreign exchange shortages could prompt further debt restructuring trend in SSA

    08 November 2022 Alisa Strobel

    More sub-Saharan African countries are likely to seek further debt restructuring as foreign exchange shortages rise.

    • Foreign Exchange (FX) Derivatives
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  130. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Recession still likely

    07 November 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    Demand has softened, and we continue to expect a weak fourth quarter with US GDP contracting slightly, marking the start of a recession.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  131. COP27: Implementation constraints amid the Russia–Ukraine conflict

    07 November 2022 William Farmer Theo Acheampong Lindsay Newman John Raines Jack A. Kennedy Hannah Cotillon Dijedon Imeri Carla Selman Ailsa Rosales

    The conflict in Ukraine is likely to further deviate the timeline for meeting the targets of limiting temperature rise and reaching net-zero...

    • Political Risk
    • Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)
    • Economic Risk
  132. How nighttime lights illuminate economic activity

    07 November 2022 Marie Lechler, Ph.D. Hugo Foster

    Planners who are in the dark about local economic activity could look at where the lights are on for insights into local economic and industry...

    • Regional, state and metro-level economic forecasts
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  133. Economic snapshots of the battleground states in US mid-term elections

    07 November 2022 Karl Kuykendall Heather Upton Dave Iaia

    With US mid-terms elections this week, our US regional team explores the critical economic issues motivating voters in swing states

    • Regional, state and metro-level economic forecasts
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  134. Banking risk monthly outlook: November 2022

    03 November 2022 Natasha McSwiggan

    Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in November

    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
  135. US Monthly GDP Index for September 2022

    02 November 2022 Kathleen Navin Ben Herzon

    According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP declined 0.1% in September.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  136. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities dip as mild weather eases energy pressures

    02 November 2022 Michael Dall

    From our MPI: Lower demand for natural gas in Europe pushes prices down

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  137. Recessions in Europe: How deep and how long?

    01 November 2022 Ken Wattret

    Energy shortages due to unusually cold weather could lead to much deeper near-term output contractions than forecast.

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  138. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Q3 surprise but recession looms

    31 October 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    We revised up our US forecast of fourth-quarter GDP growth by 0.4 percentage point, but we still show the US economy contracting at a 0.7% annual...

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  139. Oil and gas revenue will boost real estate and construction spending in the Gulf

    28 October 2022 Ralf Wiegert Jamil Naayem

    The UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia are expected to experience healthy total construction growth in 2022 and 2023.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Capital Construction Costs
  140. Ghana’s increasing risk of debt default

    27 October 2022 Ronel Oberholzer

    Amid increasing concerns over unsustainable debt levels in many African countries, Ghana's default risk has increased.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
  141. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities down as demand prospects dim

    26 October 2022 Michael Dall

    Politburo meeting fails to boost market sentiment

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  142. Capital Markets: Emerging markets continue generating mixed signals

    25 October 2022 Brian Lawson

    Emerging market supply remains strong for investment-grade issuers, but debt restructuring issues are affecting several sub-Saharan countries...

    • Economic Data
    • Capital markets
    • Banking Risk
  143. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Manufacturing vs. housing

    25 October 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    Manufacturing activity expanded in September, while contraction has intensified in the U.S. housing sector.

    • Housing Markets
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  144. Trick-or-treaters will bag less loot as Halloween candy prices eat into sales volumes

    24 October 2022 Akshat Goel

    Parents are expected to spend $3.2 billion on candy this Halloween — a record amount, which works out to about $25 per household.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Consumer Spending
  145. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices edge up slightly

    21 October 2022 Michael Dall

    Despite last week’s commodity price increase, weak demand will dominate pricing in the near term.

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  146. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Inflation pressure 

    17 October 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    The Fed will be forced to raise interest rates to support tight financial conditions and a softening in demand in pursuit of lower inflation....

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  147. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices drop despite OPEC intervention

    13 October 2022 Michael Dall

    Per our MPI, improving gas market fundamentals pull commodity prices lower

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  148. US midterm election scenarios: Divided Congress is most likely outcome

    13 October 2022 Lawrence Nelson John Raines

    US midterm elections represent a referendum on the president. Issues weighing down the president’s approval rating include inflation and immigration....

    • Political Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
  149. High-cost US metro areas are struggling to recover from pandemic

    11 October 2022 Karl Kuykendall

    Many US residents and businesses left high-cost coastal cities during the pandemic for lower-cost southern and Mountain locations.

    • Regional, state and metro-level economic forecasts
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  150. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Employment, hours grew in September

    10 October 2022 Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    We expect US labor markets to ease in coming quarters as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  151. Banking risk monthly outlook: October 2022

    06 October 2022 Natasha McSwiggan

    Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in October including: China, Ghana, and...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
  152. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices down amid bond market turmoil

    06 October 2022 Michael Dall

    Market confidence low as borrowing costs soar and buyers take flight

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  153. Brazil’s first-round election results increase risk of gridlock in Congress, posing hurdles to fiscal consolidation

    06 October 2022 Sergio A. Hernandez Rafael Amiel Pollyanna De Lima Paula Diosquez-Rice Carlos Caicedo Ailsa Rosales

    The likely need for a wide coalition, regardless of who wins the election, will prevent sharp changes in policy and would slow down structural...

    • Political Risk
    • Economic Risk
    • Country risk
  154. The economic impact of Hurricane Ian

    05 October 2022 James C. Kelly

    Hurricane Ian, a category 4 hurricane that hit southwest Florida in late September will shave 1.5–2.0 percentage points off Florida’s Q3 GDP...

    • Regional, state and metro-level economic forecasts
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  155. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Likely to tip into recession

    04 October 2022 Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    We expect outright declines in real US GDP beginning as soon as the fourth quarter of this year.

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  156. US Monthly GDP Index for August 2022

    04 October 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon

    According to our Monthly GDP Index, US monthly GDP rose 0.8% in August.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  157. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity sell-off resumes as central banks continue to address inflation

    29 September 2022 Michael Dall

    Market confidence hit by further aggressive interest rate hikes as shown in the MPI

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Inflation
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  158. Protests over price increases in Indonesia to continue, with low risks to businesses

    28 September 2022 Bree Neff Anton Alifandi

    Protests in Indonesia are not supported by major political parties and are unlikely to transform into wider discontent with the government.  ...

    • Operational Risk
    • Economic Risk
    • Country risk
  159. UK tax-cut plan induces short-term pain in debt market, inflation fight

    28 September 2022 Raj Badiani

    The UK must borrow money to fund its tax cuts, triggering turmoil in financial markets and uncertainty in the inflation fight.

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  160. Critical minerals: Illuminating the path to an electric future

    27 September 2022 Theo Acheampong Lindsay Newman John Anton Johanna Marris

    The surge in demand for critical minerals creates opportunities for companies and exacerbates regulatory and operational risks. 

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)
    • Economic Data
    • Country risk
    • Country Intelligence
    • Copper Markets
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  161. Zeroing in on attractive construction markets

    27 September 2022 Scott Hazelton Marie Lechler, Ph.D.

    Our regional data and country risk scores help investors pinpoint attractive locations for construction projects.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Capital Construction Costs
  162. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Worsening financial conditions likely to tip US into recession

    26 September 2022 Ken Matheny Chris Varvares Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    We expect the US recession to be mild by historical standards. The unemployment rate is likely to rise by several percentage points. 

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  163. Tightening financial conditions will slow global economic growth and inflation

    22 September 2022 Sara Johnson

    Tightening financial conditions will lead to a further slowdown in global economic growth, putting expansions in vulnerable regions at risk and...

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  164. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices rise in a calm week for energy markets

    21 September 2022 Thomas McCartin

    Commodity prices marked a slight increase last week with a mixed bag between subcomponents

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  165. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Weak growth, high inflation

    19 September 2022 Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    We lowered our forecast of third-quarter US GDP growth as data suggested less growth of personal consumption expenditures.  

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  166. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity sell-off as central banks tackle inflation

    15 September 2022 Michael Dall

    Market sentiment hit by big interest rate hikes - MPI highlights increasing anxiety

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Inflation
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  167. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Growth recession

    12 September 2022 Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    We expect US GDP growth to improve to sluggish rates in the third and fourth quarters. We don’t expect much improvement in growth in 2023. 

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  168. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity sell-off as data continues to disappoint

    08 September 2022 Michael Dall

    Prospects for slower demand continue to weigh on commodity prices, with data last week further harming market sentiment.

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  169. Banking risk monthly outlook: September 2022

    08 September 2022 Natasha McSwiggan

    Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in September.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
  170. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Strong labor markets in August

    06 September 2022 Ken Matheny Joel Prakken Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    Labor demand is still very strong and labor markets are extraordinarily tight.

    • Labor Markets
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  171. Chile’s constitutional process

    06 September 2022 Carla Selman

    As a result of the Chilean referendum, a new constitutional process is likely to delay the implementation of President Boric’s agenda

    • Political Risk
    • Country risk
  172. Country Risk Premiums Quarterly: August 2022

    02 September 2022 Chris Suckling

    Hydropower, manufacturing, and automotive sectors pushed the highest increases CRP

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  173. US Monthly GDP Index for July 2022

    02 September 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon

    According to our Monthly US GDP Index, US GDP rose 0.4% in July.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  174. US Weekly Economic Commentary: No recession through July

    30 August 2022 Ken Matheny Joel Prakken Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    Fresh data suggest that the US economy did not enter a recession in the first half. We anticipate the US will avoid an outright recession.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Country Intelligence
  175. Outbreak of major fighting near southern Tigray

    25 August 2022 Jordan Anderson

    Outbreak of major fighting near southern Tigray increases risk of wider conflict resuming in northern Ethiopia

    • Security Risk
    • Political Violence
    • Operational Risk
    • Country risk
  176. Inflation and unrest in sub-Saharan Africa

    25 August 2022 Theo Acheampong Thea Fourie Martin Roberts Langelihle Malimela Jordan Anderson

    We discuss political developments and the potential for social unrest in select sub-Saharan African countries over the next six months

    • Security Risk
    • Operational Risk
    • Inflation
    • Economic Risk
    • Country Intelligence
  177. Weekly Pricing Pulse: MPI shows the largest weekly increase since March

    24 August 2022 Michael Dall

    MPI increases as traders scramble for natural gas supply before winter season

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  178. Cresting global inflation gives world economy a soft landing

    24 August 2022 Sara Johnson

    Global inflation is expected to moderate in 2023 and 2024. The global economy is expected to achieve a soft landing with real GDP averaging 2.5%...

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  179. The ascent of APAC in the global economy

    16 August 2022 Rajiv Biswas

    More youthful demographic profiles in India, Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam will drive rapid growth in consumption.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Country Intelligence
  180. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices slide on renewed demand fears

    11 August 2022 Michael Dall

    MPI decreases as interest rate rises hit investor confidence

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  181. Global recession watch: Inflation at a fever pitch

    10 August 2022 Sara Johnson

    Global recessions are typically characterized by the depth, breadth, and duration of a decline in economic activity. Are we there?

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Country Intelligence
  182. Banking risk monthly outlook: August 2022

    08 August 2022 Natasha McSwiggan

    Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in August.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
  183. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices rise on renewed energy supply fears

    04 August 2022 Michael Dall

    MPI increases after Russia announces cuts to European gas flows

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  184. US Monthly GDP Index for June 2022

    02 August 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon

    According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.2% in June.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  185. What Europe’s gas curtailment plan will do to industries and regions

    02 August 2022 Yacine Rouimi Michael Ryan Marie Lechler, Ph.D. Diego Iscaro

    EU member states are expected to embark on national campaigns to reduce gas consumption in the household and commercial sectors. 

    • Industry Monitoring and Trends
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Country Intelligence
  186. Did the US economy contract over the first half of 2022? It’s a tale of two measures

    01 August 2022 Joel Prakken

    In Q1 US real GDP declined but real GDI grew 1.8%. What do these numbers tell us about the direction of of economy?

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Country Intelligence
  187. Sri Lanka crisis raises alarm about further unrest in APAC region

    28 July 2022 Hannah Cotillon Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch

    Countries with similarly weak economic fundamentals or poor economic policies have reduced resilience to external shocks, like inflation.

    • Political Risk
    • Economic Risk
    • Country risk
  188. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Weak demand weighs on commodity markets

    27 July 2022 Michael Dall

    MPI drops for sixth week in a row as price correction continues

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  189. What is driving global volatility: Geopolitical constellations

    27 July 2022 Lindsay Newman

    Recent events (Russia-Ukraine conflict, COVID-19 pandemic, China’s COVID containment measures and Brexit) crystallize that pressure points in...

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Political Risk
    • Operational Risk
    • Economic Risk
    • Country risk
    • Country Intelligence
  190. Mexico nearshoring potential for critical minerals

    26 July 2022 Rafael Amiel Jose Sevilla-Macip Emily Crowley

    Materialization of the nearshoring potential across sectors including critical minerals would significantly improve Mexico’s economic standing....

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Country risk
  191. Stagflation ahead? Understanding the drivers and economic impacts of higher inflation

    25 July 2022 Todd Lee John Raines Chris Williamson Chris Varvares Amanda Eglinton

    Concerns about stagflation have emerged because high inflation is widespread and growth is slowing in some markets. Here’s what we’re watching....

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Country Intelligence
  192. A global recession can be avoided, but risks are high

    25 July 2022 Sara Johnson

    The global economy is projected to resume growth despite the risk of recession remains high in major economies due to accelerating monetary policy...

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Country Intelligence
  193. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Recession fears continue broad sell-off in commodity markets

    20 July 2022 Michael Dall

    Sharp declines in industrial metal prices drive MPI down

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  194. Regional inequality in France: Impact on future political stability

    18 July 2022 Marie Lechler, Ph.D. Diego Iscaro Bibianna Norek

    in France, regional inequities are expected to grow over the next 5 years. Will this play a role in the upcoming elections?

    • Political Risk
    • Economic Risk
    • Country Intelligence
  195. Growing appetite for copper threatens energy transition and climate goals

    18 July 2022 Olivier Beaufils Mohsen Bonakdarpour Keerti Rajan John Mothersole Frank Hoffman Daniel Yergin, Ph.D.

    The goal of Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 will be short-circuited and remain out of reach unless massive new copper supply comes online in a timely...

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Energy Transition
    • Economic Data
    • Country Intelligence
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
  196. Capital market conditions to remain difficult

    15 July 2022 Brian Lawson

    Issuance has been reduced over the last two weeks by the 4 July holiday and adverse US inflation data: despite some positive events, conditions...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Capital markets
  197. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity markets continue to respond to recession fears

    13 July 2022 Tal Dickstein

    Insights from our MPI: Lumber and energy prices rise while most other commodity prices drop.

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Inflation
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  198. Not a Recession for the US—Yet

    13 July 2022 Joel Prakken

    inflation in the US is intolerably high, unemployment unsustainably low, and inflation expectations have crept worrisomely above the Federal...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  199. Sub-Saharan Africa feels inflationary heat from Russia-Ukraine war

    11 July 2022 Thea Fourie

    A global recession could prove more challenging for the SSA region this time around, with fewer tailwinds and buffers to avoid sluggish growth....

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  200. Banking risk monthly outlook: July 2022

    05 July 2022 Natasha McSwiggan

    Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in July.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
  201. US Monthly GDP Index for May 2022

    04 July 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon

    According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly US GDP declined 0.1% in May.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  202. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Broad weakness offsets strong energy pricing

    01 July 2022 Thomas McCartin

    Natural gas prices jump again but most other commodity prices drop.

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  203. Why is mainland China sticking with “zero-COVID” policy?

    27 June 2022 Yating Xu Todd C. Lee Lei Yi David Li

    Mainland China’s zero-Covid policy has exacted heavy tolls on the economy

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Coronavirus
  204. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Growth fears spark broad sell-off on commodity markets

    23 June 2022 Michael Dall

    Sharp declines in industrial metal prices drive MPI down

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  205. Europe’s road to recession

    23 June 2022 Yacine Rouimi Ken Wattret

    An intensification of energy and monetary policy-related headwinds would raise the likelihood of recession in Europe.

    • Inflation
    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  206. The global economic climate is shifting, as fighting inflation gains urgency

    22 June 2022 Sara Johnson

    The global economic climate is shifting rapidly in June, putting forecasters on recession watch.

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  207. Capital Markets Weekly: Tightening monetary policy increasing financial dislocation risks

    16 June 2022 Brian Lawson

    The European Central Bank held an unscheduled meeting on 15 June after expectations of tighter monetary policy in both the US and EU pushed peripheral...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Capital markets
  208. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities nudge up on higher costs

    15 June 2022 Michael Dall

    Prices increase again but markets remain uncertain per our Weekly Pricing Pulse

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  209. Inflation, inflation, and more inflation

    14 June 2022 Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    US inflation concerns led to a further tightening of financial conditions in the week ending June 10. An interest rate hike is on the horizon....

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  210. Devil in the detail: Beware the eurozone’s positive Q1 growth surprise

    10 June 2022 Ken Wattret

    At face value, the eurozone’s real GDP growth rates in Q1 were encouraging but a closer inspection of the expenditure data paints a much less...

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  211. REPowerEU targets EU’s energy independence with limited official funding

    10 June 2022 Petya Barzilska Dijedon Imeri Diego Iscaro

    The proposed acceleration of the energy transition will require larger and faster investment, and the availability of funding will be key.

    • Political Risk
    • Energy Transition
    • Country risk
  212. Russia-Ukraine war could amplify supply chain woes

    10 June 2022 Petya Barzilska Laurence Allan Kevjn Lim Ken Wattret John Raines Jessica Leyland Jack Kennedy Dijedon Imeri Alyssa Grzelak

    As the Russia-Ukraine conflict intensifies, we are seeing increased supply chain issues and the lingering effects of China’s Covid policy.

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Economic Risk
    • Country risk
  213. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices edge up reversing last week's declines

    09 June 2022 Michael Dall

    Prices increase after another eventful week on commodity markets

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  214. The Central African Republic announces bitcoin as legal tender

    07 June 2022 Veronica Retamales Burford Thea Fourie Jeremy Smith Brian Lawson

    CAR became the second country globally, after El Salvador, to adopt bitcoin as legal tender. A look at the operational challenges

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  215. Capital Markets Weekly: Equity supply and sovereign Green Bond issuance revival

    03 June 2022 Brian Lawson

    Our latest report focuses on a selective revival in larger share sales and new sovereign issuance in the Green Bond Market.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Capital markets
  216. Banking risk monthly outlook: June 2022

    02 June 2022 Natasha McSwiggan

    Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in June.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
  217. US Monthly GDP Index for April 2022

    01 June 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon

    According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.5% in April.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  218. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices rebound

    27 May 2022 Michael Dall

    Better news from mainland China on COVID-19 send commodity prices higher

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  219. MENA oil exporters will benefit from Russia–Ukraine war fallout through rising petrodollar inflows

    25 May 2022 Jamil Naayem

    The MENA region, driven by large oil exporters, will benefit from the Russia-Ukraine war spillovers by spending additional petrodollars, thus...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Country Intelligence
  220. NATO applications by Sweden and Finland face Turkish opposition 

    24 May 2022 Petya Barzilska Laurence Allan John Raines Jessica Leyland Dijedon Imeri

    Turkey’s implicit veto threat probably signifies an intent to extract concessions from other NATO members. 

    • Security Risk
    • Political Risk
    • Country risk
  221. Serial disruptions threaten global economic growth

    24 May 2022 Sara Johnson

    We have revised our  2022 global GDP forecast down to 2.9% from 3.2%, global consumer price inflation projected to rise to 6.7% in 2022

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Country Intelligence
  222. G20 members’ views on Russia diverge, making expulsion unlikely

    23 May 2022 Theo Acheampong Nezo Sobekwa Natznet Tesfay Lindsay Newman Laurence Allan Jose Sevilla-Macip John Raines Jan Gerhard Jack A. Kennedy Dijedon Imeri Deepa Kumar Carlos Cardenas Carla Selman Bibianna Norek Anton Alifandi

    Splits within the G20 on Russia are an early indicator of increasing fault lines, affecting future political, security and trade relations. 

    • Security Risk
    • Political Risk
    • Country risk
  223. Capital Markets Weekly: Emerging market financing environment worsening

    20 May 2022 Brian Lawson

    Although a Kazakh state borrower, Poland and Romania have all issued successfully since our 5 May report, overall market dynamics are worsening....

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Capital markets
  224. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity sell-off accelerates

    20 May 2022 Michael Dall

    Market sentiment sours over global growth concerns - latest insights from our MPI

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  225. Regime shift: Is higher inflation here to stay?

    18 May 2022 Ken Wattret

    A major change in approach is now required, with the anchoring of inflation expectations a priority

    • Economic Data
    • Country Intelligence
  226. Borderless threats in the digital age: Assessing cyber-risks on a country level 

    17 May 2022 Jordan Anderson

    The prism of country risk can make a unique and valuable contribution to our understanding of the ever-growing cyber-threat environment in which...

    • Security Risk
    • Country risk
  227. Subnational economic spill over effects after Russia’s invasion in Ukraine

    16 May 2022 Marie Lechler, Ph.D. Chris Suckling

    Regions specialized in sectors that have been adversely impacted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are set to face worse economic growth outlooks...

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  228. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices continue to retreat

    12 May 2022 Michael Dall

    Gloomier demand outlook and higher interest rates dampened commodity prices last week

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  229. Migration outlook: Emerging push factors West Africa to Europe

    10 May 2022 Petya Barzilska Nezo Sobekwa Lindsay Newman, Ph.D. Jose Sevilla-Macip John Raines, Ph.D. Blanka Kolenikova

    The latest in a series of reports on migration in 2022 focuses on examples of economic and climate-related push factors in Europe and beyond.  ...

    • Security Risk
    • Operational Risk
    • Country risk
  230. Banking risk monthly outlook: May 2022

    06 May 2022 Natasha McSwiggan

    Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in May.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
  231. Capital Markets Weekly: Capital market conditions worsen, but significant deal successes are continuing

    06 May 2022 Brian Lawson

    Reference rates and EU spreads worsened ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting but sizeable deals were well-received in both bond and equity markets....

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Capital markets
    • Banking Risk
  232. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Softening demand pushes commodity prices lower

    05 May 2022 Thomas McCartin

    Market attention shifts towards lockdowns in mainland China as lower manufacturing activity suggests less demand for inputs

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  233. The Russia-Ukraine conflict: Beyond the nearer-term implications

    05 May 2022 Lindsay Newman Deepa Kumar

    Despite intermittent ceasefire talks, no clear offramp to the conflict in Ukraine has yet emerged - our researchers look at possible scenarios...

    • Political Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Country risk
  234. China (mainland) may move to limit impact of US financial weapons

    04 May 2022 Todd C. Lee

    Did the dollar’s weaponization against Russia initiate an irreversible fracturing of the global financial system?

    • Financial Risk Assessment
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Country Intelligence
  235. US Monthly GDP Index for March 2022

    02 May 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.

    According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP declined 0.4% in March.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  236. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices increases return

    28 April 2022 Michael Dall

    After a brief respite, commodity prices climbed last week

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  237. Capital Markets Weekly: Reference rates continue rising – but issuance continues to show durable demand

    26 April 2022 Brian Lawson

    US 10-year reference yields have risen 50 basis points during April – but sizeable supply continues to be absorbed successfully.

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic Data
    • Capital markets
  238. Supply resilience is key to avoiding a global recession

    26 April 2022 Sara Johnson Elisabeth WaelbroeckRocha, Ph.D.

    World real GDP growth will likely slow to 3.2% in 2022; Supply resilience is key to avoiding a global recession

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Country Intelligence
  239. France’s presidential election: Possible scenarios

    20 April 2022 Diego Iscaro Bibianna Norek

    If the incumbent president loses the election, the most significant policy divergence will be a shift in foreign policy, particularly with regard...

    • Political Risk
    • Country risk
    • Country Intelligence
  240. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices stay flat despite excitement in energy markets

    20 April 2022 Tal Dickstein

    The prospect of a Russian coal ban in Europe prevents commodity prices from falling outright

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  241. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices down as energy markets calm

    13 April 2022 Brian Lawson

    The prospect of increased oil supply provides some relief to commodity prices

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  242. Capital Markets Weekly: Despite rising reference yields, improving equity supply and long-dated debt sales show financial market resilience

    07 April 2022 Brian Lawson

    Although reference yields have risen sharply since early March, equity issuance is improving, and long-dated debt supply is proving resilient. ...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Capital markets
  243. Banking risk monthly outlook: April 2022

    06 April 2022 Natasha McSwiggan

    Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in April

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
  244. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices up as supply concerns continue

    06 April 2022 Michael Dall

    Doubts over natural gas flows from Russia heighten price volatility last week

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  245. US Monthly GDP Index for February 2022

    03 April 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.

    Monthly GDP declined 0.1% in February

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  246. Capital Markets Weekly: Positive capital market indicators in late March alongside rising reference rates

    30 March 2022 Brian Lawson

    Key market trends in March to watch include the rise in reference rates and the resilience of supply from riskier asset classes.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Capital markets
    • Banking Risk
  247. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: The migration outlook

    28 March 2022 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D.

    The current outflows of people from Ukraine represent the fastest growing refugee crisis in Europe since World War II.

    • Security Risk
    • Country risk
  248. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity markets see their first retreat of 2022

    25 March 2022 Tal Dickstein

    Our Weekly pricing pulse: prices pull back from record highs

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  249. Political risk insurance for investment decision-making

    23 March 2022 Chris Suckling, Ph.D. Alexia Ash

    Using a nuanced CRP to evaluate PRI coverage provides a more accurate assessment of risk

    • Sovereign Risk
    • Economic Risk
    • Country risk
  250. Capital Markets Weekly: Emerging market supply reopens successfully after Russian default initially averted

    23 March 2022 Brian Lawson

    During last week, Nigeria and Turkey successfully reopened emerging market supply, while Russia sovereign default reportedly was averted for...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Capital markets
    • Banking Risk
  251. Russia-Ukraine war reshapes global geopolitical & economic outlook

    22 March 2022 Sara Johnson

    Russia-Ukraine war has fundamentally changed the global geopolitical landscape with impacts on economic & GDP recovery especially in US, Europe...

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  252. European supply shock: Sectors and countries at most risk

    17 March 2022 Vaiva Seckute

    Russian-Ukrainian war exacerbates labor shortage, supply chain and transportation disruption, and global trade leading to broad-based implications...

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Industry Monitoring and Trends
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  253. Weekly Pricing Pulse: “Everything” rally as Russia-Ukraine conflict rattles commodity markets

    16 March 2022 Michael Dall

    Our MPI jumped 5% as commodity prices surge on supply concerns and volatile trading conditions

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  254. Russia-Ukraine war and inflation

    10 March 2022 Ken Wattret

    The soaring of global inflation rates driven by rising energy prices and other goods is aggravated by the economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine...

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  255. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices break records as conflict war intensifies

    09 March 2022 Michael Dall

    MPI climbs to all-time high as traders scramble to secure supply

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  256. Financing sub-Saharan Africa’s energy transition

    09 March 2022 William Farmer Theo Acheampong, Ph.D. Peter Gardett Natznet Tesfay Davdi Li

    SSA countries received insufficient financial pledges at COP26 to cover their full climate adaptation needs, but they did receive substantial...

    • Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)
    • Economic Risk
    • Country risk
  257. Regional and sectoral growth dynamics in Mexico

    08 March 2022 Rafael Amiel, Ph.D. Chris Suckling, Ph.D.

    A state by state look at economic growth in Mexico

    • Regional, state and metro-level economic forecasts
    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  258. Banking risk monthly outlook: March 2022

    04 March 2022 Natasha McSwiggan

    Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in March

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
  259. US Monthly GDP Index for January 2022

    04 March 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.

    According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP was flat (0.0%) in January 2022.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  260. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices soar on supply concerns

    04 March 2022 Michael Dall

    MPI climbs to eleven-year high as panic grips commodity markets. Energy prices were the main contributor to the MPI’s increase last week.

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  261. Country Risk Premiums Quarterly: Q1 2022

    24 February 2022 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.

    Increases in CRP scores were driven by costs associated with capital transfer and expropriation risks in onshore gas and oil projects

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Country risk
  262. Argentina-IMF deal advances

    24 February 2022 Paula Diosquez-Rice Carla Selman

    With the deal, Argentina would avoid defaulting on its IMF liabilities in 2022 but shifts the risk to beyond 2023.

    • Sovereign Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  263. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices dip after government intervention

    23 February 2022 Michael Dall

    Commodity markets eased last week; first decline in 2022

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  264. The global economy disrupted: Higher inflation and slower growth in the 2022 outlook

    22 February 2022 Sara Johnson

    The global economic expansion will continue at a moderating pace in 2022 and 2023.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  265. UK economy faces a difficult start to 2022 despite the end of COVID-19 restrictions

    22 February 2022 Raj Badiani

    The post-COVID-19 UK recovery faces strengthening headwinds, namely rampant inflation squeezing household budgets, persistent supply chain disruptions...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Coronavirus
  266. The impact of civil unrest on Port Sudan

    21 February 2022 Jihane Boudiaf

    Rapid declines in Sudan’s exports and port calls in the second half of 2021 were caused by disruption resulting from the protest activity and...

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Operational Risk
    • Country risk
  267. Capital Markets Weekly: Emerging market issuers resist market volatility

    17 February 2022 Brian Lawson

    Three emerging market issuers including Turkey sold debt successfully this week, despite difficult conditions: Bolivia poses a pending test.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Capital markets
    • Banking Risk
  268. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices jump as traders return

    16 February 2022 Michael Dall

    Broad gains on commodity markets as buyers snap up raw materials

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  269. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices increase for fifth week in a row

    10 February 2022 Michael Dall

    Quieter week on commodity markets but prices continue to climb

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Procurement Strategies
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  270. Banking risk monthly outlook: February 2022

    08 February 2022 Natasha McSwiggan

    Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in February including loan prime rates...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
  271. Supply chains disruptions in Latin America

    08 February 2022 Veronica Retamales Burford Jose Sevilla-Macip Carlos Caicedo Carla Selman

    As we continue to watch global supply chain disruptions our experts take a close look at what this means for specific sectors in Latin America...

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  272. US regional economic expectations for 2022: Employment, housing, and inflation

    07 February 2022 Tom Jackson Steven Frable Karl Kuykendall Fran Hagarty

    Our US Regional economists provide insights on their growth expectations for 2022

    • Housing Markets
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Consumer Spending
  273. The Bank of Canada ends extraordinary guidance

    03 February 2022 Arlene Kish, M.A.

    The Bank of Canada's hawkish tone confirms resolute objective to bring inflation back to 2% target.

    • Monetary Policy
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
  274. It's time for a paradigm shift in ESG

    02 February 2022 Anna Boyd

    A closer look at current practices in the field of social license, the bedrock of the S in ESG, reveals the opportunity to shift ESG from a compliance...

    • Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)
    • Country risk
  275. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Strength in energy offsets softness in broader commodity markets

    02 February 2022 Thomas McCartin

    Natural gas and coal join oil in showing price strength

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  276. US Monthly GDP Index for December 2021

    01 February 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.

    According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.1% in December 2021.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  277. Country risk month ahead: February 2022

    01 February 2022 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D. James Petretta

    Our country risk team provides a snapshot of the political risk shaping the world in February

    • Security Risk
    • Political Risk
    • Country risk
  278. Myanmar’s military completes one year in power

    01 February 2022 Deepa Kumar

    Today is the one year anniversary of the coup in Myanmar. Current expectations: fighting with civilian militias likely, political resolution...

    • Security Risk
    • Operational Risk
    • Country risk
  279. Water: The dilemmas MENA governments are facing

    31 January 2022 Yasmine Ghozzi Ralf Wiegert Jihane Boudiaf

    The MENA region has been increasingly affected by water-related issues. How will this increase the risks to economic development, and for violent...

    • Water
    • Operational Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
  280. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity price strength continues as oil reaches a seven-year high

    26 January 2022 Michael Dall

    Since the end of November 2021, commodity markets have seen extraordinary volatility. This week oil reaches a seven-year high to send the MPI...

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  281. The global economy disrupted: Higher inflation and slower growth in the 2022 outlook

    24 January 2022 Sara Johnson

    Worldwide inflation will likely remain near 5.0% in early 2022 before gradually easing

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  282. Bubble trouble: Europe’s house price boom back in the spotlight

    24 January 2022 Ken Wattret

    Eurozone house price inflation hit a record high in Q3 2021, with upward momentum picking up during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    • Housing Markets
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  283. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Early 2022 commodity price rally continues

    19 January 2022 Michael Dall

    Industrial metal prices spike to send the MPI higher last week.

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  284. Banking risk monthly outlook: Regional risks in 2022

    11 January 2022 Natasha McSwiggan

    Our banking risk team explores key issues, trends, and developments that are likely to change the risk outlooks for banks at a regional level...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
  285. Sudanese Prime Minister resigns

    07 January 2022 Jihane Boudiaf

    Hamdok’s resignation leaves the military in de facto control of the country by force but lacking in legitimacy. What's next?

    • Political Violence
    • Political Risk
    • Country risk
  286. The ECB will continue to support bond markets in 2022 despite lower net purchases

    06 January 2022 Diego Iscaro

    Net purchases will be substantially lower than in 2021, but reinvestments of assets already on the ECB’s balance sheet will continue to provide...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
  287. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Natural gas price decline outweighs broader price strength

    06 January 2022 Thomas McCartin

    Natural gas prices retreat, pulling the MPI lower

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  288. Emerging risks in Latin America in 2022

    05 January 2022 Rafael Amiel, Ph.D. Jeremy Smith Carlos Caicedo

    Latin America begins 2022 in fragile condition given the COVID-19 economic impact, a deteriorated fiscal position, weak FDI, and high inflation....

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  289. US Monthly GDP Index for November 2021

    03 January 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.

    According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly US GDP declined 0.8% in November.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  290. Top themes to watch in global banking for 2022: Risk and uncertainty remain heightened

    03 January 2022 Alyssa Grzelak

    The banking sector avoided a major crisis in 2021. Will 2022 fair as well? Risks and uncertainty remain heightened

    • Sovereign Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
  291. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities rally after another energy price hike

    22 December 2021 Michael Dall

    Natural gas prices surge once more, driving the MPI higher

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  292. Census Bureau vintage 2021 population estimates: Illustrative of a continuing trend 

    21 December 2021 Patrick Newport, Ph.D.

    According to the Census Bureau, the estimated population of the US grew by 0.1%, the lowest rate since the nation’s founding

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  293. MENA economic outlook 2022: Strengthening regional growth faces noticeable global headwinds

    21 December 2021 Jamil Naayem

    The MENA region will witness healthy economic growth in the near term amid rising hydrocarbon revenues and ongoing COVID vaccination, but downside...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  294. Top-10 economic predictions for 2022: Multiple transitions

    20 December 2021 Todd Lee, Ph.D. Sara Johnson Rajiv Biswas Ken Wattret John Mothersole Joel Prakken, Ph.D. Elisabeth WaelbroeckRocha Chris Varvares Brian Lawson

    Following a 5.6% rebound in 2021, Real GDP growth will settle at 4.3% in 2022. Our Our top 10 economic predictions for 2022 highlights what's...

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)
    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
  295. The supply chain crisis: Q&A with our experts

    20 December 2021

    The supply chain crisis is one with many facets. What we're seeing is not only disruptive. It's historic—the first major disjunction in the synchronized...

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Supply Chain Logistics
    • Coal Supply & Demand
    • Automotive Supply Chain
  296. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices rebound amid market volatility

    14 December 2021 Michael Dall

    Watching our MPI we note that market volatility is now driving commodity prices higher

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  297. US holiday sales growth will set a record in 2021

    14 December 2021 Akshat Goel

    The pandemic rages on, but that won’t stop Americans from spending with gusto—holiday sales up 16.6%.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Consumer Spending
  298. Are European housing markets getting too hot?

    10 December 2021 Vaiva Seckute

    House price increases in Europe accelerated since end-2020 despite GDP contractions - what's the downside risk?

    • Housing Markets
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
  299. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices dip on Omicron concerns

    08 December 2021 Michael Dall

    Renewed threat from Omicron sends commodity prices down

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
  300. Pastoralist violence in Kenya

    08 December 2021 William Farmer

    Growing land-rights risks due to climate impacts and 2022 elections in Kenya leads to an increase in violence.

    • Security Risk
    • Political Violence
    • Country risk
    • Climate Change

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