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Access the latest PMI
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Featured

27 January 2023

Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices rise on chemical market strength

26 January 2023

The global economic outlook brightens as inflation eases

24 January 2023

US Weekly Economic Commentary: Shrinking goods sector

20 January 2023

Mexico’s nearshoring potential likely to grow as alignment with US increases

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  1. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices rise on chemical market strength

    26 January 2023

    Gains in chemicals and lumber pushed commodity prices slightly higher for the second consecutive week

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  2. The global economic outlook brightens as inflation eases

    25 January 2023 Sara Johnson

    World real GDP is now projected to increase 1.9% in 2023, up from last month’s forecast of 1.6% growth.

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  3. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Shrinking goods sector

    23 January 2023 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    There has been a notable weakening in consumer demand for goods as reflected in retail sales.

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  4. Mexico’s nearshoring potential likely to grow as alignment with US increases

    20 January 2023 Jose Sevilla-Macip

    The focus on semiconductors and critical minerals during the recent summit emphasized the nearshoring opportunities for Mexico.

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Supply Chain Logistics
    blog image
  5. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Inflation rounding the corner

    17 January 2023 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    We expect continued declines in both headline and core inflation, consistent with our forecast for a mild recession this year.

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  6. What makes supply chains vulnerable to disruption?

    13 January 2023 Vaiva Seckute

    Sectors with longer supply chains are likely to remain vulnerable to disruptions.

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Supply Chain Logistics
    • Automotive Supply Chain
    blog image
  7. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices ease at start of 2023

    12 January 2023 Michael Dall

    Falling energy prices and demand concerns send prices slightly lower last week

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  8. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Solid ending to 2022

    09 January 2023 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    We have revised up our estimate of fourth-quarter GDP growth by nearly two percentage points since Dec. 23.

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  9. Top 10 themes to watch for in global banking in 2023

    06 January 2023 Natasha McSwiggan Alyssa Grzelak

    As expected, despite an overhang of risk from the pandemic, global banking sectors again avoided major crises in 2022. Starting 2023, however...

    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
    blog image
  10. Weekly Pricing Pulse: A mixed week for commodity markets overshadowed by sharp decline in energy prices

    04 January 2023 Thomas McCartin

    Unseasonably warm weather to round out 2022 in Europe and the US relieves natural gas markets.

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  11. US Monthly GDP Index for November 2022

    04 January 2023 Ben Herzon

    According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly US GDP rose 0.4% in November.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  12. Top 10 economic predictions for 2023

    04 January 2023 Yacine Rouimi Vaiva Seckute Todd C. Lee Thea Fourie Sharon Fisher Sara Johnson Rajiv Biswas Ken Wattret John Anton Joel Prakken Jeannine Cataldi Emily Crowley Chris Varvares Bree Neff Alyssa Grzelak

    Central banks' efforts to subdue inflation will dominate the economic landscape in 2023, producing a pronounced slowdown in global economic growth....

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  13. Key themes for Latin America in 2023

    20 December 2022 Veronica Retamales Burford Rafael Amiel Pollyanna De Lima Paula Diosquez-Rice Jose Sevilla-Macip Johanna Marris Claudia Wehbe Carlos Cardenas Carlos Caicedo Carla Selman Alejandro DuranCarrete Ailsa Rosales

    2023 will be marked by economic deceleration, the consolidation of the political left, higher fiscal burden, and greater business disruption...

    • Political Risk
    • Monetary Policy
    • Environmental Policy
    • Economic Risk
    • Country risk
    blog image
  14. MENA region’s economic growth to slow after strong 2022

    19 December 2022 Jamil Naayem

    MENA’s real GDP growth will likely slow in 2023, as the region’s economies are not immune to weakening global demand and tightening financial...

    • Oil & gas upstream
    • Interest Rates
    • Inflation Rates
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    blog image
  15. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Spending, production declines

    19 December 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    We expect that PCE growth will slow to a crawl early next year, as the economy rolls over into what will likely be a mild recession.

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  16. Debt Market conditions improve towards year-end

    19 December 2022 Brian Lawson

    Debt market conditions are improving for riskier asset classes, indicated by both aggregate and issuer-specific factors.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
    blog image
  17. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Significant price rises for commodities

    16 December 2022 Michael Dall

    Gradual lifting of Chinese COVID-19 restrictions support commodities

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  18. ESG and exclusionary policies affecting Latin America

    14 December 2022 Veronica Retamales Burford Jose Sevilla-Macip Carlos Cardenas Carlos Caicedo Carla Selman Ailsa Rosales

    ESG-related scrutiny will significantly increase for projects in Latin America, especially for ESG-oriented lenders or investors with a focus...

    • ESG Investing
    • Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)
    • Country risk
    blog image
  19. US Weekly Economic Commentary: 2023 Recession

    12 December 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    Easing of financial conditions since October and the firmness of recent real data suggest a delay in the onset of recession to early 2023.

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  20. Banking risk monthly outlook: December 2022

    12 December 2022 Natasha McSwiggan

    Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in December.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
    blog image
  21. Regional inequality in the UK: London slows down and still outperforms

    09 December 2022 Phil Smith Marie Lechler, Ph.D.

    We expect London GDP to grow 5.0% year-on-year in 2022, outstripping all other areas of the UK and widening regional inequalities.

    • Regional, state and metro-level economic forecasts
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  22. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices soar

    08 December 2022 Michael Dall

    A European cold snap and loosening Chinese COVID-19 restrictions support commodities

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  23. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Strong labor demand

    05 December 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    We expect the Fed to slow the pace of rate hikes beginning this month and to raise the target for the federal funds rate over the next several...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  24. Water scarcity in Latin America: Operational challenges

    02 December 2022 Veronica Retamales Burford Marie Lechler, Ph.D. Jose Sevilla-Macip Johanna Marris Carlos Caicedo Carla Selman Ailsa Rosales

    Extreme weather events such as water stress, floods, and droughts have led to additional operational challenges in Latin America.

    • Security Risk
    • Operational Risk
    • Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)
    • Country risk
    blog image
  25. US Monthly GDP Index for October 2022

    01 December 2022 Kathleen Navin Ben Herzon

    Monthly US GDP rose 0.3% in October

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  26. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Tighter COVID-19 containment measures in mainland China pour cold water on market sentiment

    01 December 2022 Thomas McCartin

    Cooler sentiment over the outlook for mainland China’s relaxation of zero-Covid policy has pulled prices lower after the previous week’s increase...

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  27. Vulnerable housing markets in Europe can deepen recessions

    29 November 2022 Vaiva Seckute

    Across Europe residential real estate prices have been rising amid low interest rates, boosting affordability and making investments in real...

    • Inflation
    • Housing Markets
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  28. US Weekly Economic Commentary: More resiliency

    29 November 2022 Ken Matheny Juan Turcios Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    We revised up our forecast of fourth-quarter US GDP growth to a 0.8% annual rate, reflecting sizeable increases in orders and shipments of capital...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  29. The world economy faces an extended cooling off period

    29 November 2022 Sara Johnson

    We project global real GDP growth to slow from 5.9% in 2021 to 2.9% in 2022 and 1.5% in 2023.

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  30. A world rebalancing

    22 November 2022 Lindsay Newman

    five organizing themes that will drive the economic and risk environment in 2023: global security unsettled, energy trade-offs, precarious supply...

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Country risk
    blog image
  31. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Resilient consumers

    21 November 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    Largely on the resiliency in US retail sales, we revised up our forecast of fourth-quarter US GDP growth by 0.7 percentage point to +0.4%.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Consumer Spending
    blog image
  32. Outlook for India’s economic growth and policy platforms

    21 November 2022 Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch Deepa Kumar Angus Lam

    India’s ambition to increase its economic power is unlikely to be limited to encouraging foreign investor participation.

    • Government Policy & Regulations
    • Fiscal Policy
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  33. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity price growth returns

    17 November 2022 Michael Dall

    Our MPI signals that better news on US inflation and easing Chinese COVID-19 restrictions boost markets

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  34. Flash PMI preview: November flash PMI data to provide insights into inflation trends and recession risks

    17 November 2022 Jingyi Pan

    November flash PMI data will be eagerly awaited in the coming week to shed light on inflation, employment trends and risks of recession in the...

    • Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
    blog image
  35. Nominal holiday sales up, real sales down

    16 November 2022 Michael Zdinak Chris Varvares Akshat Goel

    US holiday sales will grow a solid 4.5% in 2022, above the pre-pandemic average of 3.9% and well below the lofty rates seen in recent years.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Consumer Spending
    blog image
  36. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Fed will downshift to “50”

    14 November 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    The better-than-expected US Consumer Price Index report for October supports a downshift in the pace of Fed rate hikes in December.

    • Inflation
    • Federal Reserve Policy
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  37. Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 14 November 2022

    14 November 2022 Rajiv Biswas Jingyi Pan

    An assortment of data releases packs the week ahead including US and China’s retail sales and industrial production figures.

    • Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
    blog image
  38. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities down on bearish demand outlook

    08 November 2022 Michael Dall

    Weak global construction prospects spark latest sell-off

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  39. COP27: Framing water scarcity and food security as global issues

    08 November 2022 William Farmer Theo Acheampong Lindsay Newman John Raines Jack A. Kennedy Hannah Cotillon Dijedon Imeri Carla Selman Ailsa Rosales

    Latin American and African representatives are likely to frame water scarcity as a global issue affecting food security to obtain financing commitments....

    • Political Risk
    • Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)
    • Country risk
    blog image
  40. COP27: Energy security concerns collide with climate agenda

    08 November 2022 William Farmer Theo Acheampong Lindsay Newman John Raines Jack A. Kennedy Hannah Cotillon Dijedon Imeri Carla Selman Ailsa Rosales

    The Russia–Ukraine conflict has severely disrupted energy supply in the EU and forced a near-term policy divergence between energy security and...

    • Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)
    • Economic Data
    • Country risk
    blog image
  41. Foreign exchange shortages could prompt further debt restructuring trend in SSA

    08 November 2022 Alisa Strobel

    More sub-Saharan African countries are likely to seek further debt restructuring as foreign exchange shortages rise.

    • Foreign Exchange (FX) Derivatives
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  42. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Recession still likely

    07 November 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    Demand has softened, and we continue to expect a weak fourth quarter with US GDP contracting slightly, marking the start of a recession.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  43. COP27: Implementation constraints amid the Russia–Ukraine conflict

    07 November 2022 William Farmer Theo Acheampong Lindsay Newman John Raines Jack A. Kennedy Hannah Cotillon Dijedon Imeri Carla Selman Ailsa Rosales

    The conflict in Ukraine is likely to further deviate the timeline for meeting the targets of limiting temperature rise and reaching net-zero...

    • Political Risk
    • Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)
    • Economic Risk
    blog image
  44. How nighttime lights illuminate economic activity

    07 November 2022 Marie Lechler, Ph.D. Hugo Foster

    Planners who are in the dark about local economic activity could look at where the lights are on for insights into local economic and industry...

    • Regional, state and metro-level economic forecasts
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  45. Economic snapshots of the battleground states in US mid-term elections

    07 November 2022 Karl Kuykendall Heather Upton Dave Iaia

    With US mid-terms elections this week, our US regional team explores the critical economic issues motivating voters in swing states

    • Regional, state and metro-level economic forecasts
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  46. Banking risk monthly outlook: November 2022

    03 November 2022 Natasha McSwiggan

    Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in November

    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
    blog image
  47. US Monthly GDP Index for September 2022

    02 November 2022 Kathleen Navin Ben Herzon

    According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP declined 0.1% in September.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  48. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities dip as mild weather eases energy pressures

    02 November 2022 Michael Dall

    From our MPI: Lower demand for natural gas in Europe pushes prices down

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  49. Recessions in Europe: How deep and how long?

    01 November 2022 Ken Wattret

    Energy shortages due to unusually cold weather could lead to much deeper near-term output contractions than forecast.

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  50. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Q3 surprise but recession looms

    31 October 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    We revised up our US forecast of fourth-quarter GDP growth by 0.4 percentage point, but we still show the US economy contracting at a 0.7% annual...

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  51. Oil and gas revenue will boost real estate and construction spending in the Gulf

    28 October 2022 Ralf Wiegert Jamil Naayem

    The UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia are expected to experience healthy total construction growth in 2022 and 2023.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Capital Construction Costs
    blog image
  52. Ghana’s increasing risk of debt default

    27 October 2022 Ronel Oberholzer

    Amid increasing concerns over unsustainable debt levels in many African countries, Ghana's default risk has increased.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
    blog image
  53. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities down as demand prospects dim

    26 October 2022 Michael Dall

    Politburo meeting fails to boost market sentiment

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  54. Capital Markets: Emerging markets continue generating mixed signals

    25 October 2022 Brian Lawson

    Emerging market supply remains strong for investment-grade issuers, but debt restructuring issues are affecting several sub-Saharan countries...

    • Economic Data
    • Capital markets
    • Banking Risk
    blog image
  55. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Manufacturing vs. housing

    25 October 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    Manufacturing activity expanded in September, while contraction has intensified in the U.S. housing sector.

    • Housing Markets
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  56. Trick-or-treaters will bag less loot as Halloween candy prices eat into sales volumes

    24 October 2022 Akshat Goel

    Parents are expected to spend $3.2 billion on candy this Halloween — a record amount, which works out to about $25 per household.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Consumer Spending
    blog image
  57. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices edge up slightly

    21 October 2022 Michael Dall

    Despite last week’s commodity price increase, weak demand will dominate pricing in the near term.

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  58. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Inflation pressure 

    17 October 2022 Lawrence Nelson Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    The Fed will be forced to raise interest rates to support tight financial conditions and a softening in demand in pursuit of lower inflation....

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  59. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices drop despite OPEC intervention

    13 October 2022 Michael Dall

    Per our MPI, improving gas market fundamentals pull commodity prices lower

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  60. US midterm election scenarios: Divided Congress is most likely outcome

    13 October 2022 Lawrence Nelson John Raines

    US midterm elections represent a referendum on the president. Issues weighing down the president’s approval rating include inflation and immigration....

    • Political Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    blog image
  61. High-cost US metro areas are struggling to recover from pandemic

    11 October 2022 Karl Kuykendall

    Many US residents and businesses left high-cost coastal cities during the pandemic for lower-cost southern and Mountain locations.

    • Regional, state and metro-level economic forecasts
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  62. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Employment, hours grew in September

    10 October 2022 Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    We expect US labor markets to ease in coming quarters as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  63. Banking risk monthly outlook: October 2022

    06 October 2022 Natasha McSwiggan

    Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in October including: China, Ghana, and...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
    blog image
  64. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices down amid bond market turmoil

    06 October 2022 Michael Dall

    Market confidence low as borrowing costs soar and buyers take flight

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  65. Brazil’s first-round election results increase risk of gridlock in Congress, posing hurdles to fiscal consolidation

    06 October 2022 Sergio A. Hernandez Rafael Amiel Pollyanna De Lima Paula Diosquez-Rice Carlos Caicedo Ailsa Rosales

    The likely need for a wide coalition, regardless of who wins the election, will prevent sharp changes in policy and would slow down structural...

    • Political Risk
    • Economic Risk
    • Country risk
    blog image
  66. The economic impact of Hurricane Ian

    05 October 2022 James C. Kelly

    Hurricane Ian, a category 4 hurricane that hit southwest Florida in late September will shave 1.5–2.0 percentage points off Florida’s Q3 GDP...

    • Regional, state and metro-level economic forecasts
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  67. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Likely to tip into recession

    04 October 2022 Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    We expect outright declines in real US GDP beginning as soon as the fourth quarter of this year.

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  68. US Monthly GDP Index for August 2022

    04 October 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon

    According to our Monthly GDP Index, US monthly GDP rose 0.8% in August.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  69. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity sell-off resumes as central banks continue to address inflation

    29 September 2022 Michael Dall

    Market confidence hit by further aggressive interest rate hikes as shown in the MPI

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Inflation
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  70. Protests over price increases in Indonesia to continue, with low risks to businesses

    28 September 2022 Bree Neff Anton Alifandi

    Protests in Indonesia are not supported by major political parties and are unlikely to transform into wider discontent with the government.  ...

    • Operational Risk
    • Economic Risk
    • Country risk
    blog image
  71. UK tax-cut plan induces short-term pain in debt market, inflation fight

    28 September 2022 Raj Badiani

    The UK must borrow money to fund its tax cuts, triggering turmoil in financial markets and uncertainty in the inflation fight.

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  72. Critical minerals: Illuminating the path to an electric future

    27 September 2022 Theo Acheampong Lindsay Newman John Anton Johanna Marris

    The surge in demand for critical minerals creates opportunities for companies and exacerbates regulatory and operational risks. 

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)
    • Economic Data
    • Country risk
    • Country Intelligence
    • Copper Markets
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    blog image
  73. Zeroing in on attractive construction markets

    27 September 2022 Scott Hazelton Marie Lechler, Ph.D.

    Our regional data and country risk scores help investors pinpoint attractive locations for construction projects.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Capital Construction Costs
    blog image
  74. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Worsening financial conditions likely to tip US into recession

    26 September 2022 Ken Matheny Chris Varvares Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    We expect the US recession to be mild by historical standards. The unemployment rate is likely to rise by several percentage points. 

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  75. Tightening financial conditions will slow global economic growth and inflation

    22 September 2022 Sara Johnson

    Tightening financial conditions will lead to a further slowdown in global economic growth, putting expansions in vulnerable regions at risk and...

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  76. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices rise in a calm week for energy markets

    21 September 2022 Thomas McCartin

    Commodity prices marked a slight increase last week with a mixed bag between subcomponents

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  77. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Weak growth, high inflation

    19 September 2022 Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    We lowered our forecast of third-quarter US GDP growth as data suggested less growth of personal consumption expenditures.  

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  78. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity sell-off as central banks tackle inflation

    15 September 2022 Michael Dall

    Market sentiment hit by big interest rate hikes - MPI highlights increasing anxiety

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Inflation
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  79. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Growth recession

    12 September 2022 Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    We expect US GDP growth to improve to sluggish rates in the third and fourth quarters. We don’t expect much improvement in growth in 2023. 

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  80. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity sell-off as data continues to disappoint

    08 September 2022 Michael Dall

    Prospects for slower demand continue to weigh on commodity prices, with data last week further harming market sentiment.

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  81. Banking risk monthly outlook: September 2022

    08 September 2022 Natasha McSwiggan

    Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in September.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
    blog image
  82. US Weekly Economic Commentary: Strong labor markets in August

    06 September 2022 Ken Matheny Joel Prakken Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    Labor demand is still very strong and labor markets are extraordinarily tight.

    • Labor Markets
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  83. Chile’s constitutional process

    06 September 2022 Carla Selman

    As a result of the Chilean referendum, a new constitutional process is likely to delay the implementation of President Boric’s agenda

    • Political Risk
    • Country risk
    blog image
  84. Country Risk Premiums Quarterly: August 2022

    02 September 2022 Chris Suckling

    Hydropower, manufacturing, and automotive sectors pushed the highest increases CRP

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  85. US Monthly GDP Index for July 2022

    02 September 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon

    According to our Monthly US GDP Index, US GDP rose 0.4% in July.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  86. US Weekly Economic Commentary: No recession through July

    30 August 2022 Ken Matheny Joel Prakken Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    Fresh data suggest that the US economy did not enter a recession in the first half. We anticipate the US will avoid an outright recession.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Country Intelligence
    blog image
  87. Outbreak of major fighting near southern Tigray

    25 August 2022 Jordan Anderson

    Outbreak of major fighting near southern Tigray increases risk of wider conflict resuming in northern Ethiopia

    • Security Risk
    • Political Violence
    • Operational Risk
    • Country risk
    blog image
  88. Inflation and unrest in sub-Saharan Africa

    25 August 2022 Theo Acheampong Thea Fourie Martin Roberts Langelihle Malimela Jordan Anderson

    We discuss political developments and the potential for social unrest in select sub-Saharan African countries over the next six months

    • Security Risk
    • Operational Risk
    • Inflation
    • Economic Risk
    • Country Intelligence
    blog image
  89. Weekly Pricing Pulse: MPI shows the largest weekly increase since March

    24 August 2022 Michael Dall

    MPI increases as traders scramble for natural gas supply before winter season

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
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  90. Cresting global inflation gives world economy a soft landing

    24 August 2022 Sara Johnson

    Global inflation is expected to moderate in 2023 and 2024. The global economy is expected to achieve a soft landing with real GDP averaging 2.5%...

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  91. The ascent of APAC in the global economy

    16 August 2022 Rajiv Biswas

    More youthful demographic profiles in India, Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam will drive rapid growth in consumption.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Country Intelligence
    blog image
  92. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices slide on renewed demand fears

    11 August 2022 Michael Dall

    MPI decreases as interest rate rises hit investor confidence

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  93. Global recession watch: Inflation at a fever pitch

    10 August 2022 Sara Johnson

    Global recessions are typically characterized by the depth, breadth, and duration of a decline in economic activity. Are we there?

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Country Intelligence
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  94. Banking risk monthly outlook: August 2022

    08 August 2022 Natasha McSwiggan

    Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in August.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
    blog image
  95. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices rise on renewed energy supply fears

    04 August 2022 Michael Dall

    MPI increases after Russia announces cuts to European gas flows

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  96. US Monthly GDP Index for June 2022

    02 August 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon

    According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.2% in June.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  97. What Europe’s gas curtailment plan will do to industries and regions

    02 August 2022 Yacine Rouimi Michael Ryan Marie Lechler, Ph.D. Diego Iscaro

    EU member states are expected to embark on national campaigns to reduce gas consumption in the household and commercial sectors. 

    • Industry Monitoring and Trends
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Country Intelligence
    blog image
  98. Did the US economy contract over the first half of 2022? It’s a tale of two measures

    01 August 2022 Joel Prakken

    In Q1 US real GDP declined but real GDI grew 1.8%. What do these numbers tell us about the direction of of economy?

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Country Intelligence
    blog image
  99. Sri Lanka crisis raises alarm about further unrest in APAC region

    28 July 2022 Hannah Cotillon Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch

    Countries with similarly weak economic fundamentals or poor economic policies have reduced resilience to external shocks, like inflation.

    • Political Risk
    • Economic Risk
    • Country risk
    blog image
  100. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Weak demand weighs on commodity markets

    27 July 2022 Michael Dall

    MPI drops for sixth week in a row as price correction continues

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
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  101. What is driving global volatility: Geopolitical constellations

    27 July 2022 Lindsay Newman

    Recent events (Russia-Ukraine conflict, COVID-19 pandemic, China’s COVID containment measures and Brexit) crystallize that pressure points in...

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Political Risk
    • Operational Risk
    • Economic Risk
    • Country risk
    • Country Intelligence
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  102. Mexico nearshoring potential for critical minerals

    26 July 2022 Rafael Amiel Jose Sevilla-Macip Emily Crowley

    Materialization of the nearshoring potential across sectors including critical minerals would significantly improve Mexico’s economic standing....

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Country risk
    blog image
  103. Stagflation ahead? Understanding the drivers and economic impacts of higher inflation

    25 July 2022 Todd Lee John Raines Chris Williamson Chris Varvares Amanda Eglinton

    Concerns about stagflation have emerged because high inflation is widespread and growth is slowing in some markets. Here’s what we’re watching....

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Country Intelligence
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  104. A global recession can be avoided, but risks are high

    25 July 2022 Sara Johnson

    The global economy is projected to resume growth despite the risk of recession remains high in major economies due to accelerating monetary policy...

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Country Intelligence
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  105. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Recession fears continue broad sell-off in commodity markets

    20 July 2022 Michael Dall

    Sharp declines in industrial metal prices drive MPI down

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  106. Regional inequality in France: Impact on future political stability

    18 July 2022 Marie Lechler, Ph.D. Diego Iscaro Bibianna Norek

    in France, regional inequities are expected to grow over the next 5 years. Will this play a role in the upcoming elections?

    • Political Risk
    • Economic Risk
    • Country Intelligence
    blog image
  107. Growing appetite for copper threatens energy transition and climate goals

    18 July 2022 Olivier Beaufils Mohsen Bonakdarpour Keerti Rajan John Mothersole Frank Hoffman Daniel Yergin, Ph.D.

    The goal of Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 will be short-circuited and remain out of reach unless massive new copper supply comes online in a timely...

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Energy Transition
    • Economic Data
    • Country Intelligence
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
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  108. Capital market conditions to remain difficult

    15 July 2022 Brian Lawson

    Issuance has been reduced over the last two weeks by the 4 July holiday and adverse US inflation data: despite some positive events, conditions...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Capital markets
    blog image
  109. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity markets continue to respond to recession fears

    13 July 2022 Tal Dickstein

    Insights from our MPI: Lumber and energy prices rise while most other commodity prices drop.

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Inflation
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
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  110. Not a Recession for the US—Yet

    13 July 2022 Joel Prakken

    inflation in the US is intolerably high, unemployment unsustainably low, and inflation expectations have crept worrisomely above the Federal...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  111. Sub-Saharan Africa feels inflationary heat from Russia-Ukraine war

    11 July 2022 Thea Fourie

    A global recession could prove more challenging for the SSA region this time around, with fewer tailwinds and buffers to avoid sluggish growth....

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  112. Banking risk monthly outlook: July 2022

    05 July 2022 Natasha McSwiggan

    Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in July.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
    blog image
  113. US Monthly GDP Index for May 2022

    04 July 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon

    According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly US GDP declined 0.1% in May.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  114. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Broad weakness offsets strong energy pricing

    01 July 2022 Thomas McCartin

    Natural gas prices jump again but most other commodity prices drop.

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  115. Why is mainland China sticking with “zero-COVID” policy?

    27 June 2022 Yating Xu Todd C. Lee Lei Yi David Li

    Mainland China’s zero-Covid policy has exacted heavy tolls on the economy

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Coronavirus
    blog image
  116. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Growth fears spark broad sell-off on commodity markets

    23 June 2022 Michael Dall

    Sharp declines in industrial metal prices drive MPI down

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  117. Europe’s road to recession

    23 June 2022 Yacine Rouimi Ken Wattret

    An intensification of energy and monetary policy-related headwinds would raise the likelihood of recession in Europe.

    • Inflation
    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  118. The global economic climate is shifting, as fighting inflation gains urgency

    22 June 2022 Sara Johnson

    The global economic climate is shifting rapidly in June, putting forecasters on recession watch.

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  119. Capital Markets Weekly: Tightening monetary policy increasing financial dislocation risks

    16 June 2022 Brian Lawson

    The European Central Bank held an unscheduled meeting on 15 June after expectations of tighter monetary policy in both the US and EU pushed peripheral...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Capital markets
    blog image
  120. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities nudge up on higher costs

    15 June 2022 Michael Dall

    Prices increase again but markets remain uncertain per our Weekly Pricing Pulse

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
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  121. Inflation, inflation, and more inflation

    14 June 2022 Ken Matheny Ben Herzon Akshat Goel

    US inflation concerns led to a further tightening of financial conditions in the week ending June 10. An interest rate hike is on the horizon....

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  122. Devil in the detail: Beware the eurozone’s positive Q1 growth surprise

    10 June 2022 Ken Wattret

    At face value, the eurozone’s real GDP growth rates in Q1 were encouraging but a closer inspection of the expenditure data paints a much less...

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  123. REPowerEU targets EU’s energy independence with limited official funding

    10 June 2022 Petya Barzilska Dijedon Imeri Diego Iscaro

    The proposed acceleration of the energy transition will require larger and faster investment, and the availability of funding will be key.

    • Political Risk
    • Energy Transition
    • Country risk
    blog image
  124. Russia-Ukraine war could amplify supply chain woes

    10 June 2022 Petya Barzilska Laurence Allan Kevjn Lim Ken Wattret John Raines Jessica Leyland Jack Kennedy Dijedon Imeri Alyssa Grzelak

    As the Russia-Ukraine conflict intensifies, we are seeing increased supply chain issues and the lingering effects of China’s Covid policy.

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Economic Risk
    • Country risk
    blog image
  125. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices edge up reversing last week's declines

    09 June 2022 Michael Dall

    Prices increase after another eventful week on commodity markets

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  126. The Central African Republic announces bitcoin as legal tender

    07 June 2022 Veronica Retamales Burford Thea Fourie Jeremy Smith Brian Lawson

    CAR became the second country globally, after El Salvador, to adopt bitcoin as legal tender. A look at the operational challenges

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  127. Capital Markets Weekly: Equity supply and sovereign Green Bond issuance revival

    03 June 2022 Brian Lawson

    Our latest report focuses on a selective revival in larger share sales and new sovereign issuance in the Green Bond Market.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Capital markets
    blog image
  128. Banking risk monthly outlook: June 2022

    02 June 2022 Natasha McSwiggan

    Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in June.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
    blog image
  129. US Monthly GDP Index for April 2022

    01 June 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon

    According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.5% in April.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  130. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices rebound

    27 May 2022 Michael Dall

    Better news from mainland China on COVID-19 send commodity prices higher

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
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  131. MENA oil exporters will benefit from Russia–Ukraine war fallout through rising petrodollar inflows

    25 May 2022 Jamil Naayem

    The MENA region, driven by large oil exporters, will benefit from the Russia-Ukraine war spillovers by spending additional petrodollars, thus...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Country Intelligence
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  132. NATO applications by Sweden and Finland face Turkish opposition 

    24 May 2022 Petya Barzilska Laurence Allan John Raines Jessica Leyland Dijedon Imeri

    Turkey’s implicit veto threat probably signifies an intent to extract concessions from other NATO members. 

    • Security Risk
    • Political Risk
    • Country risk
    blog image
  133. Serial disruptions threaten global economic growth

    24 May 2022 Sara Johnson

    We have revised our  2022 global GDP forecast down to 2.9% from 3.2%, global consumer price inflation projected to rise to 6.7% in 2022

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Country Intelligence
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  134. G20 members’ views on Russia diverge, making expulsion unlikely

    23 May 2022 Theo Acheampong Nezo Sobekwa Natznet Tesfay Lindsay Newman Laurence Allan Jose Sevilla-Macip John Raines Jan Gerhard Jack A. Kennedy Dijedon Imeri Deepa Kumar Carlos Cardenas Carla Selman Bibianna Norek Anton Alifandi

    Splits within the G20 on Russia are an early indicator of increasing fault lines, affecting future political, security and trade relations. 

    • Security Risk
    • Political Risk
    • Country risk
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  135. Capital Markets Weekly: Emerging market financing environment worsening

    20 May 2022 Brian Lawson

    Although a Kazakh state borrower, Poland and Romania have all issued successfully since our 5 May report, overall market dynamics are worsening....

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Capital markets
    blog image
  136. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity sell-off accelerates

    20 May 2022 Michael Dall

    Market sentiment sours over global growth concerns - latest insights from our MPI

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
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  137. Regime shift: Is higher inflation here to stay?

    18 May 2022 Ken Wattret

    A major change in approach is now required, with the anchoring of inflation expectations a priority

    • Economic Data
    • Country Intelligence
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  138. Borderless threats in the digital age: Assessing cyber-risks on a country level 

    17 May 2022 Jordan Anderson

    The prism of country risk can make a unique and valuable contribution to our understanding of the ever-growing cyber-threat environment in which...

    • Security Risk
    • Country risk
    blog image
  139. Subnational economic spill over effects after Russia’s invasion in Ukraine

    16 May 2022 Marie Lechler, Ph.D. Chris Suckling

    Regions specialized in sectors that have been adversely impacted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are set to face worse economic growth outlooks...

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  140. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices continue to retreat

    12 May 2022 Michael Dall

    Gloomier demand outlook and higher interest rates dampened commodity prices last week

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  141. Migration outlook: Emerging push factors West Africa to Europe

    10 May 2022 Petya Barzilska Nezo Sobekwa Lindsay Newman, Ph.D. Jose Sevilla-Macip John Raines, Ph.D. Blanka Kolenikova

    The latest in a series of reports on migration in 2022 focuses on examples of economic and climate-related push factors in Europe and beyond.  ...

    • Security Risk
    • Operational Risk
    • Country risk
    blog image
  142. Banking risk monthly outlook: May 2022

    06 May 2022 Natasha McSwiggan

    Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in May.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
    blog image
  143. Capital Markets Weekly: Capital market conditions worsen, but significant deal successes are continuing

    06 May 2022 Brian Lawson

    Reference rates and EU spreads worsened ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting but sizeable deals were well-received in both bond and equity markets....

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Capital markets
    • Banking Risk
    blog image
  144. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Softening demand pushes commodity prices lower

    05 May 2022 Thomas McCartin

    Market attention shifts towards lockdowns in mainland China as lower manufacturing activity suggests less demand for inputs

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
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  145. The Russia-Ukraine conflict: Beyond the nearer-term implications

    05 May 2022 Lindsay Newman Deepa Kumar

    Despite intermittent ceasefire talks, no clear offramp to the conflict in Ukraine has yet emerged - our researchers look at possible scenarios...

    • Political Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Country risk
    blog image
  146. China (mainland) may move to limit impact of US financial weapons

    04 May 2022 Todd C. Lee

    Did the dollar’s weaponization against Russia initiate an irreversible fracturing of the global financial system?

    • Financial Risk Assessment
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Country Intelligence
    blog image
  147. US Monthly GDP Index for March 2022

    02 May 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.

    According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP declined 0.4% in March.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  148. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices increases return

    28 April 2022 Michael Dall

    After a brief respite, commodity prices climbed last week

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  149. Capital Markets Weekly: Reference rates continue rising – but issuance continues to show durable demand

    26 April 2022 Brian Lawson

    US 10-year reference yields have risen 50 basis points during April – but sizeable supply continues to be absorbed successfully.

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic Data
    • Capital markets
    blog image
  150. Supply resilience is key to avoiding a global recession

    26 April 2022 Sara Johnson Elisabeth WaelbroeckRocha, Ph.D.

    World real GDP growth will likely slow to 3.2% in 2022; Supply resilience is key to avoiding a global recession

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Country Intelligence
    blog image
  151. France’s presidential election: Possible scenarios

    20 April 2022 Diego Iscaro Bibianna Norek

    If the incumbent president loses the election, the most significant policy divergence will be a shift in foreign policy, particularly with regard...

    • Political Risk
    • Country risk
    • Country Intelligence
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  152. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices stay flat despite excitement in energy markets

    20 April 2022 Tal Dickstein

    The prospect of a Russian coal ban in Europe prevents commodity prices from falling outright

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  153. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices down as energy markets calm

    13 April 2022 Brian Lawson

    The prospect of increased oil supply provides some relief to commodity prices

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
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  154. Capital Markets Weekly: Despite rising reference yields, improving equity supply and long-dated debt sales show financial market resilience

    07 April 2022 Brian Lawson

    Although reference yields have risen sharply since early March, equity issuance is improving, and long-dated debt supply is proving resilient. ...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Capital markets
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  155. Banking risk monthly outlook: April 2022

    06 April 2022 Natasha McSwiggan

    Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in April

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
    blog image
  156. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices up as supply concerns continue

    06 April 2022 Michael Dall

    Doubts over natural gas flows from Russia heighten price volatility last week

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  157. US Monthly GDP Index for February 2022

    03 April 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.

    Monthly GDP declined 0.1% in February

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  158. Capital Markets Weekly: Positive capital market indicators in late March alongside rising reference rates

    30 March 2022 Brian Lawson

    Key market trends in March to watch include the rise in reference rates and the resilience of supply from riskier asset classes.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Capital markets
    • Banking Risk
    blog image
  159. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: The migration outlook

    28 March 2022 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D.

    The current outflows of people from Ukraine represent the fastest growing refugee crisis in Europe since World War II.

    • Security Risk
    • Country risk
    blog image
  160. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity markets see their first retreat of 2022

    25 March 2022 Tal Dickstein

    Our Weekly pricing pulse: prices pull back from record highs

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  161. Political risk insurance for investment decision-making

    23 March 2022 Chris Suckling, Ph.D. Alexia Ash

    Using a nuanced CRP to evaluate PRI coverage provides a more accurate assessment of risk

    • Sovereign Risk
    • Economic Risk
    • Country risk
    blog image
  162. Capital Markets Weekly: Emerging market supply reopens successfully after Russian default initially averted

    23 March 2022 Brian Lawson

    During last week, Nigeria and Turkey successfully reopened emerging market supply, while Russia sovereign default reportedly was averted for...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Capital markets
    • Banking Risk
    blog image
  163. Russia-Ukraine war reshapes global geopolitical & economic outlook

    22 March 2022 Sara Johnson

    Russia-Ukraine war has fundamentally changed the global geopolitical landscape with impacts on economic & GDP recovery especially in US, Europe...

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  164. European supply shock: Sectors and countries at most risk

    17 March 2022 Vaiva Seckute

    Russian-Ukrainian war exacerbates labor shortage, supply chain and transportation disruption, and global trade leading to broad-based implications...

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Industry Monitoring and Trends
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  165. Weekly Pricing Pulse: “Everything” rally as Russia-Ukraine conflict rattles commodity markets

    16 March 2022 Michael Dall

    Our MPI jumped 5% as commodity prices surge on supply concerns and volatile trading conditions

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  166. Russia-Ukraine war and inflation

    10 March 2022 Ken Wattret

    The soaring of global inflation rates driven by rising energy prices and other goods is aggravated by the economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine...

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  167. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices break records as conflict war intensifies

    09 March 2022 Michael Dall

    MPI climbs to all-time high as traders scramble to secure supply

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  168. Financing sub-Saharan Africa’s energy transition

    09 March 2022 William Farmer Theo Acheampong, Ph.D. Peter Gardett Natznet Tesfay Davdi Li

    SSA countries received insufficient financial pledges at COP26 to cover their full climate adaptation needs, but they did receive substantial...

    • Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)
    • Economic Risk
    • Country risk
    blog image
  169. Regional and sectoral growth dynamics in Mexico

    08 March 2022 Rafael Amiel, Ph.D. Chris Suckling, Ph.D.

    A state by state look at economic growth in Mexico

    • Regional, state and metro-level economic forecasts
    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  170. Banking risk monthly outlook: March 2022

    04 March 2022 Natasha McSwiggan

    Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in March

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
    blog image
  171. US Monthly GDP Index for January 2022

    04 March 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.

    According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP was flat (0.0%) in January 2022.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  172. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices soar on supply concerns

    04 March 2022 Michael Dall

    MPI climbs to eleven-year high as panic grips commodity markets. Energy prices were the main contributor to the MPI’s increase last week.

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  173. Country Risk Premiums Quarterly: Q1 2022

    24 February 2022 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.

    Increases in CRP scores were driven by costs associated with capital transfer and expropriation risks in onshore gas and oil projects

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Country risk
    blog image
  174. Argentina-IMF deal advances

    24 February 2022 Paula Diosquez-Rice Carla Selman

    With the deal, Argentina would avoid defaulting on its IMF liabilities in 2022 but shifts the risk to beyond 2023.

    • Sovereign Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  175. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices dip after government intervention

    23 February 2022 Michael Dall

    Commodity markets eased last week; first decline in 2022

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  176. The global economy disrupted: Higher inflation and slower growth in the 2022 outlook

    22 February 2022 Sara Johnson

    The global economic expansion will continue at a moderating pace in 2022 and 2023.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  177. UK economy faces a difficult start to 2022 despite the end of COVID-19 restrictions

    22 February 2022 Raj Badiani

    The post-COVID-19 UK recovery faces strengthening headwinds, namely rampant inflation squeezing household budgets, persistent supply chain disruptions...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Coronavirus
    blog image
  178. The impact of civil unrest on Port Sudan

    21 February 2022 Jihane Boudiaf

    Rapid declines in Sudan’s exports and port calls in the second half of 2021 were caused by disruption resulting from the protest activity and...

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Operational Risk
    • Country risk
    blog image
  179. Capital Markets Weekly: Emerging market issuers resist market volatility

    17 February 2022 Brian Lawson

    Three emerging market issuers including Turkey sold debt successfully this week, despite difficult conditions: Bolivia poses a pending test.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Capital markets
    • Banking Risk
    blog image
  180. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices jump as traders return

    16 February 2022 Michael Dall

    Broad gains on commodity markets as buyers snap up raw materials

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  181. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices increase for fifth week in a row

    10 February 2022 Michael Dall

    Quieter week on commodity markets but prices continue to climb

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Procurement Strategies
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  182. Banking risk monthly outlook: February 2022

    08 February 2022 Natasha McSwiggan

    Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in February including loan prime rates...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
    blog image
  183. Supply chains disruptions in Latin America

    08 February 2022 Veronica Retamales Burford Jose Sevilla-Macip Carlos Caicedo Carla Selman

    As we continue to watch global supply chain disruptions our experts take a close look at what this means for specific sectors in Latin America...

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  184. US regional economic expectations for 2022: Employment, housing, and inflation

    07 February 2022 Tom Jackson Steven Frable Karl Kuykendall Fran Hagarty

    Our US Regional economists provide insights on their growth expectations for 2022

    • Housing Markets
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Consumer Spending
    blog image
  185. The Bank of Canada ends extraordinary guidance

    03 February 2022 Arlene Kish, M.A.

    The Bank of Canada's hawkish tone confirms resolute objective to bring inflation back to 2% target.

    • Monetary Policy
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
    blog image
  186. It's time for a paradigm shift in ESG

    02 February 2022 Anna Boyd

    A closer look at current practices in the field of social license, the bedrock of the S in ESG, reveals the opportunity to shift ESG from a compliance...

    • Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)
    • Country risk
    blog image
  187. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Strength in energy offsets softness in broader commodity markets

    02 February 2022 Thomas McCartin

    Natural gas and coal join oil in showing price strength

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  188. US Monthly GDP Index for December 2021

    01 February 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.

    According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.1% in December 2021.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  189. Country risk month ahead: February 2022

    01 February 2022 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D. James Petretta

    Our country risk team provides a snapshot of the political risk shaping the world in February

    • Security Risk
    • Political Risk
    • Country risk
    blog image
  190. Myanmar’s military completes one year in power

    01 February 2022 Deepa Kumar

    Today is the one year anniversary of the coup in Myanmar. Current expectations: fighting with civilian militias likely, political resolution...

    • Security Risk
    • Operational Risk
    • Country risk
    blog image
  191. Water: The dilemmas MENA governments are facing

    31 January 2022 Yasmine Ghozzi Ralf Wiegert Jihane Boudiaf

    The MENA region has been increasingly affected by water-related issues. How will this increase the risks to economic development, and for violent...

    • Water
    • Operational Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    blog image
  192. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity price strength continues as oil reaches a seven-year high

    26 January 2022 Michael Dall

    Since the end of November 2021, commodity markets have seen extraordinary volatility. This week oil reaches a seven-year high to send the MPI...

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  193. The global economy disrupted: Higher inflation and slower growth in the 2022 outlook

    24 January 2022 Sara Johnson

    Worldwide inflation will likely remain near 5.0% in early 2022 before gradually easing

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  194. Bubble trouble: Europe’s house price boom back in the spotlight

    24 January 2022 Ken Wattret

    Eurozone house price inflation hit a record high in Q3 2021, with upward momentum picking up during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    • Housing Markets
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  195. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Early 2022 commodity price rally continues

    19 January 2022 Michael Dall

    Industrial metal prices spike to send the MPI higher last week.

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  196. Banking risk monthly outlook: Regional risks in 2022

    11 January 2022 Natasha McSwiggan

    Our banking risk team explores key issues, trends, and developments that are likely to change the risk outlooks for banks at a regional level...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
    blog image
  197. Sudanese Prime Minister resigns

    07 January 2022 Jihane Boudiaf

    Hamdok’s resignation leaves the military in de facto control of the country by force but lacking in legitimacy. What's next?

    • Political Violence
    • Political Risk
    • Country risk
    blog image
  198. The ECB will continue to support bond markets in 2022 despite lower net purchases

    06 January 2022 Diego Iscaro

    Net purchases will be substantially lower than in 2021, but reinvestments of assets already on the ECB’s balance sheet will continue to provide...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
    blog image
  199. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Natural gas price decline outweighs broader price strength

    06 January 2022 Thomas McCartin

    Natural gas prices retreat, pulling the MPI lower

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  200. Emerging risks in Latin America in 2022

    05 January 2022 Rafael Amiel, Ph.D. Jeremy Smith Carlos Caicedo

    Latin America begins 2022 in fragile condition given the COVID-19 economic impact, a deteriorated fiscal position, weak FDI, and high inflation....

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  201. US Monthly GDP Index for November 2021

    03 January 2022 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.

    According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly US GDP declined 0.8% in November.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  202. Top themes to watch in global banking for 2022: Risk and uncertainty remain heightened

    03 January 2022 Alyssa Grzelak

    The banking sector avoided a major crisis in 2021. Will 2022 fair as well? Risks and uncertainty remain heightened

    • Sovereign Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
    blog image
  203. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities rally after another energy price hike

    22 December 2021 Michael Dall

    Natural gas prices surge once more, driving the MPI higher

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  204. Census Bureau vintage 2021 population estimates: Illustrative of a continuing trend 

    21 December 2021 Patrick Newport, Ph.D.

    According to the Census Bureau, the estimated population of the US grew by 0.1%, the lowest rate since the nation’s founding

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  205. MENA economic outlook 2022: Strengthening regional growth faces noticeable global headwinds

    21 December 2021 Jamil Naayem

    The MENA region will witness healthy economic growth in the near term amid rising hydrocarbon revenues and ongoing COVID vaccination, but downside...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  206. Top-10 economic predictions for 2022: Multiple transitions

    20 December 2021 Todd Lee, Ph.D. Sara Johnson Rajiv Biswas Ken Wattret John Mothersole Joel Prakken, Ph.D. Elisabeth WaelbroeckRocha Chris Varvares Brian Lawson

    Following a 5.6% rebound in 2021, Real GDP growth will settle at 4.3% in 2022. Our Our top 10 economic predictions for 2022 highlights what's...

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)
    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    blog image
  207. The supply chain crisis: Q&A with our experts

    20 December 2021

    The supply chain crisis is one with many facets. What we're seeing is not only disruptive. It's historic—the first major disjunction in the synchronized...

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Supply Chain Logistics
    • Coal Supply & Demand
    • Automotive Supply Chain
    blog image
  208. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices rebound amid market volatility

    14 December 2021 Michael Dall

    Watching our MPI we note that market volatility is now driving commodity prices higher

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  209. US holiday sales growth will set a record in 2021

    14 December 2021 Akshat Goel

    The pandemic rages on, but that won’t stop Americans from spending with gusto—holiday sales up 16.6%.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Consumer Spending
    blog image
  210. Are European housing markets getting too hot?

    10 December 2021 Vaiva Seckute

    House price increases in Europe accelerated since end-2020 despite GDP contractions - what's the downside risk?

    • Housing Markets
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  211. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices dip on Omicron concerns

    08 December 2021 Michael Dall

    Renewed threat from Omicron sends commodity prices down

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  212. Pastoralist violence in Kenya

    08 December 2021 William Farmer

    Growing land-rights risks due to climate impacts and 2022 elections in Kenya leads to an increase in violence.

    • Security Risk
    • Political Violence
    • Country risk
    • Climate Change
    blog image
  213. Banking risk monthly outlook: December 2021

    03 December 2021 Natasha McSwiggan

    Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in December.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
    blog image
  214. What's driving the influx of global migration?

    02 December 2021 Petya Barzilska Lindsay Newman, Ph.D. Jose Sevilla-Macip Blanka Kolenikova Alex Kokcharov

    Traditional drivers of irregular migration including security and conflict have an impact on everything from supply chains and labor markets...

    • Water
    • Security Risk
    • Operational Risk
    • Country risk
    blog image
  215. US Monthly GDP Index for October 2021

    01 December 2021 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.

    According to our Monthly GDP Index, monthly US GDP rose 1.5% in October.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  216. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices edge up

    01 December 2021 Michael Dall

    Rising metal prices send commodities higher, but downside risks emerge

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  217. Capital Markets Weekly: Supply affected by Thanksgiving holiday and renewed COVID-related concerns

    30 November 2021 Brian Lawson

    Capital Markets Weekly: Supply affected by Thanksgiving holiday and renewed COVID-related concerns

    • Capital markets
    blog image
  218. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices recover after recent sell-off 

    24 November 2021 Michael Dall

    Volatility in natural gas markets send commodity prices higher last week

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  219. Country Risk Premiums Quarterly: Q4 2021

    23 November 2021 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.

    Projects located in sub-Saharan Africa have recorded the largest increase in Country Risk Premiums (CRPs) since the third-quarter update, as...

    • Sovereign Risk
    • Economic Risk
    • Economic Data
    • Country risk
    blog image
  220. Global economic growth, inflation will slow in 2022

    23 November 2021 Sara Johnson

    S&P Global forecasts global real GDP will increase 5.5% in 2021, 4.2% in 2022

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Consumer Spending
    blog image
  221. Challenges on the horizon for global financial sector

    22 November 2021 Alyssa Grzelak

    What's in store for the global financial sector in 2022? Our banking risk expert, Alyssa Grzelak, provides some insights

    • Financial Risk Analytics
    • Economic Risk
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
    blog image
  222. Canada’s September merchandise trade surplus widened due to constrained automotive production

    22 November 2021 Evan Andrade

    Strong energy exports provided some offset for automotive trade flows that saw a second consecutive month of substantial losses.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Consumer Spending
    blog image
  223. Four trends that could upend the US housing market

    19 November 2021 Alex Cotter

    What's' happening to the US housing market? These four trends are ones to watch

    • Housing Markets
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  224. Bank of Canada ends quantitative easing and switches to reinvestment phase

    19 November 2021 Arlene Kish, M.A.

    Temporary high inflation will persist as the Bank of Canada shifts to reinvestment phase which will then be followed by policy tightening in...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
    blog image
  225. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices slump once again

    17 November 2021 Michael Dall

    Commodity markets remain rattled, but price correction bodes well for inflation outlook

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  226. Capital Markets Weekly: Heavy post FOMC supply indicates absence of “taper tantrum”

    11 November 2021 Brian Lawson

    A sizeable and broad-ranging debt calendar indicates limited fallout from the Federal Reserve’s tapering decision.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Capital markets
    blog image
  227. Pressure eases on Egypt’s funding for FY2021-2022

    11 November 2021 Yasmine Ghozzi

    Recent pressures on Egypt’s short-term funding were largely reversed with Saudi Arabia’s announcement on 31 October that it is providing Egypt...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  228. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices in free fall

    10 November 2021 Michael Dall

    Mainland Chinese intervention sparks a broad commodity sell-off

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  229. Challenges for the planned carbon border tax measures in the EU

    09 November 2021 Petya Barzilska Dijedon Imeri

    The European Commission’s policy proposals to change the European Union’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) and the corollary Carbon Border Adjustment...

    • Taxation Risk
    • Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)
    • Country risk
    blog image
  230. Assessing UNECA’s new liquidity facility for African sovereign debt

    09 November 2021 Chris Suckling, Ph.D. Brian Lawson

    The UN’s new repo facility for African debt targets a USD30 billion size and USD11 billion regional issuance cost savings over five years.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Capital markets
    blog image
  231. The Evergrande Crisis and mainland China’s property sector risks

    09 November 2021 Todd Lee, Ph.D.

    The unique characteristics of the Chinese economy have further fueled the Chinese property sector’s expansion and caused it to become excessively...

    • Housing Markets
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Construction Suppliers
    blog image
  232. Taiwan crisis scenario could severely disrupt global manufacturing supply chains

    08 November 2021 Rajiv Biswas Elisabeth WaelbroeckRocha

    The shortage of semiconductors has created issues all along the supply chain. Our experts explore what risks could further impact the supply...

    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Scenario Planning
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  233. Economic opportunities in the sub-Saharan African region

    05 November 2021 Thea Fourie

    What's driving the economy in SSA? Our Expert Thea Fourie provides some insights

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Country Intelligence
    blog image
  234. Country risk month ahead: November 2021

    04 November 2021 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D. James Petretta

    Our country risk team provides a snapshot of the events shaping the world in November including climate policy, elections, and an economic forum...

    • Political Risk
    • Operational Risk
    • Economic Risk
    • Country risk
    blog image
  235. Banking risk monthly outlook November 2021

    04 November 2021 Natasha McSwiggan

    Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in November including looser mortgage...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
    blog image
  236. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Lumber and freight markets at the head of the pack as commodity prices decline

    03 November 2021 Tal Dickstein

    Prices for eight of the ten MPI sub-components fell last week

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  237. Bank of Russia delivers hefty but expected rate increase in October

    03 November 2021 Lilit Gevorgyan

    The Central Bank of Russia surprised financial markets by a bold 75- basis point increase during its October rate-setting meeting, a move projected...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
    blog image
  238. August Canadian retail sales advanced from coast to coast

    02 November 2021 Evan Andrade

    August retail sales rose 2.1% m/m with strong underlying details, but a pull-back in the September figure is expected. 

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Country Intelligence
    • Consumer Spending
    blog image
  239. US Monthly GDP Index for September 2021

    01 November 2021 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.

    According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly GDP rose 0.2% in September.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  240. Capital Markets Weekly: Emerging market issuance largely unaffected by mainland China’s property sector stress.

    29 October 2021 Brian Lawson

    Diverse issuers from mainland China, elsewhere in Asia and other emerging markets are issuing successfully despite Chinese property-sector stress....

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Capital markets
    blog image
  241. Spending on Halloween candy projected to be up a spooktacular 10%

    29 October 2021 Akshat Goel

    Spending on Halloween candy in the US expected to reach record high of $3.1 billion in October

    • Food Consumption
    • Food Commodity Markets
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  242. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Energy markets dip sending prices down

    28 October 2021 Michael Dall

    Mainland China announces plans to tackle high coal prices bringing price relief last week

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  243. Bank of England: Remember, remember the fourth of November?

    28 October 2021 Ken Wattret

    Persistent upward pressure on inflation, and inflation expectations, have increased the chance of an imminent Bank of England rate rise.   

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  244. How large is the regional economic impact of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan?

    27 October 2021 Jamil Naayem Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch Andrew Birch

    The Afghan political transformation will have varying economic effects on its immediate neighbors – Pakistan, Tajikistan, Iran, Turkmenistan...

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  245. Canada’s housing starts fall in September, the longest losing streak since December 2019

    26 October 2021 Chulwoo Hong

    All housing starts segments in Canada fell as urban single and multiple starts decreased 5.9% m/m and 4.0% m/m, respectively.

    • Housing Markets
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  246. Supply imbalances bring higher inflation and lower global economic growth

    21 October 2021 Sara Johnson

    Latest on our Global forecast: Real GDP will increase 5.5% in 2021, 4.3% in 2022

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  247. Supply chain disruptions in Central Europe

    18 October 2021 Vaiva Seckute Sharon Fisher

    Although demand currently remains strong, Central and Eastern European countries face considerable pressures with supply-chain bottlenecks related...

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  248. Capital Markets Weekly: EU debut Green bond to reinforce growing ESG momentum

    14 October 2021 Brian Lawson

    This week’s issuance highlight was the EU’s debut Green bond which raised a record EUR12 billion, attracting EUR135 billion of demand.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Capital markets
    blog image
  249. Slower reversal of inflation spike prompts changes to Fed call

    13 October 2021 Ken Matheny, Ph.D. Chris Varvares

    Fed to begin increasing interest rates in March 2023; end asset purchases in June 2022

    • Federal Reserve Policy
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  250. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Record energy prices send commodities higher once again

    13 October 2021 Michael Dall

    Tumult in gas markets fuels global inflation fears

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  251. Eurozone inflation: It’s not how high but how long

    12 October 2021 Ken Wattret

    Soaring energy prices will fuel a further acceleration in already elevated HICP inflation but ECB policy will continue to be driven by prospects...

    • Inflation
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  252. 2021 US GDP forecast downgraded on delta variant impacts and supply chain shortages

    12 October 2021 Joel Prakken, Ph.D. Chris Varvares

    Ongoing COVID concerns and worsening supply issues delay even more growth beyond 2021 as we downgrade our US GDP forecast from 5.7% to 5.4%

    • Economic Data
    blog image
  253. Top 5 trends in the housing market

    08 October 2021 Alex Cotter

    Fraught with supply chain issues and rising costs, what trends can we expect to see in the next 5 years?

    • Consumer Spending
    • Construction Suppliers
    blog image
  254. CRIM for sectoral differentiation: Onshore vs Offshore LNG projects in Mozambique

    08 October 2021

    Understanding the full pricture of risk within a sector and a county can change investment decisions - what would you have done differently if...

    • Operational Risk
    • Economic Risk
    • Country risk
    blog image
  255. Country risk month ahead: October 2021

    07 October 2021 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D. James Petretta

    Our country risk team provides a snapshot of the events shaping the world in October

    • Security Risk
    • Political Risk
    • Economic Risk
    • Country risk
    blog image
  256. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Soaring energy prices send commodities higher

    06 October 2021 Michael Dall

    Rising oil and natural gas prices as seen on our MPI rekindle inflation fears

    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  257. Banking risk monthly outlook October 2021

    05 October 2021 Natasha McSwiggan

    Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets in October.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
    blog image
  258. Central bank digital currency in Sub-Saharan Africa

    05 October 2021 Thea Fourie Brian Lawson Anton Casteleijn

    New technology is changing the financial landscape in Africawith the development of central bank digital currencies

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Banking Risk
    blog image
  259. Building a sustainable social license strategy

    05 October 2021 Anna Boyd

    ESG metrics have become benchmarks for corporate credibility, meaning social license is serious business for companies whose activities impact...

    • Operational Risk
    • Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)
    • Country risk
    blog image
  260. Drivers of civil unrest in Latin America

    04 October 2021 Veronica Burford Carlos Cardenas Carla Selman Ailsa Rosales

    A look at what is going to drive civil unrest across Latin America in the coming months

    • Terrorism
    • Security Risk
    • Operational Risk
    • Economic Risk
    • Country risk
    blog image
  261. US Monthly GDP Index for August 2021

    01 October 2021 William Magee Ben Herzon, Ph.D.

    According to our Monthly US GDP Index, monthly US GDP rose 1.0% in August.

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  262. Capital Markets Weekly: Belize agrees to innovative debt restructuring involving new marine-focused debt

    01 October 2021 Brian Lawson

    Belize’s debt restructuring was accepted by bondholders and is slated to be funded through marine-focused Blue Bonds with potential US support...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Capital markets
    blog image
  263. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity prices decline on industrial metal weakness

    29 September 2021 Michael Dall

    Metal prices drop further sending the MPI down again

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  264. Capital Markets Weekly: Nigeria, Egypt, UK Green Bond debut confirm investor resilience despite Evergrande debt stress

    24 September 2021 Brian Lawson

    Both Nigeria and Egypt have completed sizeable debt sales, with little disruption from Evergrande’s debt stress.

    • ESG Investing
    • Economic Data
    • Capital markets
    blog image
  265. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Material prices continue their downward slide amid concerns about softening demand

    22 September 2021 Thomas McCartin

    Iron ore and natural gas dominate commodity price moves

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  266. Capital Markets Weekly: ICBC jumbo AT1 sale well-received alongside other long-duration issuance

    22 September 2021 Brian Lawson

    This early blog focuses on Industrial and Commercial Bank of China’s USD6.16 billion perpetual AT1 deal, one of three Asian perpetual deals sold...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Capital markets
    blog image
  267. Electrical vehicles (EV) battery supply chain: Country risks and lithium supply

    20 September 2021 Yacine Rouimi Sam Wilkinson Keerti Rajan Chris Suckling, Ph.D. Celine Buechel

    Electric vehicles (EV) transition shapes demand for EV batteries and mineral feedstocks. Find out about country risks that could impact the supply...

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    blog image
  268. Capital Markets Weekly: Emerging market activity revives sharply despite reduction in ECB asset purchases

    16 September 2021 Brian Lawson

    This week’s supply included successful issuance by Indonesia, Turkey, Hungary, and Chile, alongside a heavy ESG calendar.

    • Economic Data
    • Capital markets
    blog image
  269. Weekly Pricing Pulse: Soft demand outweighs supply disruptions in commodity prices last week

    15 September 2021 Thomas McCartin

    Surging natural gas prices were offset by another large decline in iron ore that pulled the MPI lower for a sixth week in a row

    • Supply Chain Risk
    • Strategic Sourcing
    • Commodity Price Forecasts
    • Commodities
    blog image
  270. Canada’s Federal Election: Post-election government will center efforts on economic investment and stimulus spending

    14 September 2021 John Raines, Ph.D.

    Despite the increased divisiveness of Canada’s election campaign, as evidenced by vocal special interest groups targeting campaign stops, any...

    • Political Risk
    • Country risk
    blog image
  271. How permanent will the post-covid decrease in births in Europe be?

    14 September 2021 Vaiva Seckute

    Further dips in birth in the near future are likely, but accelerated declines in fertility rates are not expected in most cases. However, underperformers...

    • Economic forecasts and analysis
    • Economic Data
    • Coronavirus
    blog image
  272. Country Risk Premiums Quarterly: Q3 2021

    13 September 2021 Chris Suckling, Ph.D.

    The largest reductions in our overall Country Risk Premiums (CRPs) – the additional rate of return require to adjust for country risk – were...

    • Economic Risk
    • Economic Data
    blog image
  273. Country Risk Month Ahead: September 2021

    09 September 2021 Lindsay Newman, Ph.D. James Petretta

    Our country risk team provides a snapshot of the events shaping the world in September

    • Political Risk
    • Operational Risk
    • Economic Risk
    • Country risk