Fallout from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and ongoing supply-chain challenges sustained metals prices early in the June quarter, yet optimism was short-lived as rapidly deteriorating economic outlooks triggered widespread equity- and commodity-market downturns through May and June. Sentiment turned increasingly bearish as monthly reports documented persistent, multidecade-high inflation, which propelled central banks to sharply raise interest rates into the September quarter. These developments triggered widespread concern over the likelihood of recession in many economies, dampening demand outlooks for most metals. Prices for most metals appeared to stop declining in mid-July, however, suggesting market participants had adapted to the economic uncertainty and weaker outlook. We have nevertheless adjusted most of our metals price forecasts lower for the remainder of 2022 and into 2023, reflecting the subdued demand expectations.
Sector-specific activity levels continued at high levels despite the market volatility. Exploration drilling remained historically elevated, although just below the all-time high achieved in the March quarter, while our composite exploration measure, the Pipeline Activity Index, slipped quarter over quarter to 125 from 129. M&A activity was likewise strong for the quarter. Boosted by Gold Fields' proposed acquisition of Yamana, M&A activity surged to its third-highest quarterly total deal value since the beginning of 2018.
Join us to recap the June quarter and to obtain our views for the coming year and beyond.
- 2022 June quarter review
- Geopolitical & macroeconomic trends
- Exploration, Mergers & acquisitions and Mining finance activity
- Commodity market outlooks