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Summary
Higher-for-longer interest rates have put pressure on banks' net interest margins and put deposits in the spotlight. Regulators have heavily scrutinized banks' liquidity and commercial real estate concentrations as well in the aftermath of the trio of large bank failures in the spring of 2023, causing institutions to prize deposits and slow loan growth.
Bank margins should trough in 2024, but the pace of improvement remains in question as customers continue to shift funds into higher-cost deposits. While credit quality has largely held up thus far, institutions recognize that significantly higher rates will challenge borrowers that need to refinance loans coming due soon, particularly those looking to refinance commercial real estate credits. Credit losses will increase, but most industry observers don’t expect a severe meltdown.
During this discussion, FIG Research Director Nathan Stovall will review his proprietary projections for commercial bank performance and discuss the profitability outlook with an esteemed U.S. bank investor.
Speakers
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Nathan Stovall
Head of FIG Research
Nathan Stovall, with 17 years' experience covering the banking sector, is a principal analyst for the FIG Research offering of S&P Global Market Intelligence. His primary responsibilities include covering and analyzing financial institutions, with a focus on the banking industry.
He is the author of the banking blog, Street Talk, and host of the podcast by the same name. His in-depth analysis of the banking industry, including a focus on community banks, can be found on SPGMI's Research & Analysis feature, which includes historical and forward-looking performance figures.
During his tenure, he has regularly covered and participated on the conference circuit, moderating panels and webinars focused on major issues facing banks. He has spoken as industry events as well, offering updates on bank fundamentals, market conditions and forecasts for what lies ahead. He has been quoted in a number of trade publications and the national press, including The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Financial Times and has appeared on Fox Business News and NPR's Planet Money.
Nathan holds a Bachelor of Arts degrees from Washington & Lee University, where he majored in business journalism
Jonah Marcus - CFA
Portfolio Manager
Jonah Marcus, CFA, Portfolio Manager Jonah joined Endeavour Capital Advisors, Inc. in 2008. Previously, Jonah was a Research Analyst at Miller & Jacobs Capital, LLC from 2003 to 2008, where he worked on the firm’s financial services long/short equity fund.
Jonah Marcus, CFA, Portfolio Manager Jonah joined Endeavour Capital Advisors, Inc. in 2008. Previously, Jonah was a Research Analyst at Miller & Jacobs Capital, LLC from 2003 to 2008, where he worked on the firm’s financial services long/short equity fund. Jonah received a double BA in Economics and History from the University of Pennsylvania, cum laude, and is a CFA charterholder. He serves on the Board of Directors of New York City-based Grasshopper Bancorp, Inc., an innovative digital commercial bank. Jonah is a frequent speaker and presenter at industry events, including the S&P Global and Mid-Sized Bank Coalition (MBCA) conferences.
Moderator
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Maureen McKenna
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Head of Partnerships and Business Development
Maureen McKenna is the Solutions Lead for U.S. Commercial Banks at S&P Global Market Intelligence. In this role, she produces segment specific thought leadership and identifies opportunities for Commercial Banks to partner with S&P Global to leverage our full suite of products. Maureen started her career with SNL Financial in 2008 and has been producing training seminars and executive level conferences for professionals at US Commercial banks for the last 14 years. Maureen gradated from the University of Virginia with dual degrees in Economics and Psychology.
Event Support