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Summary
Since 2021, the Biden administration has demonstrated a clear intent to significantly reduce the cost of renewable power; accelerate the transition to electric fleets and to re-shore/near shore much of the critical mineral mining and processing needed to enable the energy transition. The incentives offered within the Inflation Reduction Act 2022 (IRA), therefore, represent policy landmarks in attempting to reach this ambition. However, this aim will require US energy producers and electric vehicle manufactures acquire critical minerals at unprecedented rates, with copper the metal of electrification, and lithium, nickel and cobalt the major components of electric vehicle batteries. As these metals turn increasingly key to energy transition, establishing accurate demand estimates and securing reliable supplies will become crucial elements of industrial strategy—even national security concerns.
The IRA’s implications for critical minerals
S&P Global’s Commodity Insights, Market Intelligence, and Mobility divisions have worked together to produce a brief analysis of the IRA’s projected impact on the demand for four key metals: copper, lithium, nickel, and cobalt.
Join our analysts as we discuss key outcomes of this analysis, including:
- How will the IRA affect demand for electric vehicles in North America? What are the implications for the growth of the electric fleet?
- How much copper, lithium, nickel and cobalt will North America require to meet its carbon emissions goals? How does this compare to conventional demand for these metals?
- What are the main operational challenges to increasing production of these metals in North America? Even if permitting is accelerated, how could partisan politics complicate project planning?
- Which countries does the U.S. rely on for its supplies of these metals? Can these countries’ production capacities rise high enough for long enough to meet new demand generated by IRA tax credits?
- If the IRA is tweaked to expand qualifying sources beyond U.S. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) countries to allies, which countries will be key? Which important sourcing countries fall between allies and foreign entities of concern?
- Can increased collaboration with the EU ease similar concerns over critical mineral sourcing for both economies?
Moderator
John Raines
Principal Global Risks Adviser and Head of North America
As S&P Global Market Intelligence’s lead analyst for United States, Dr. Raines provides in-depth insight into the inner workings of the US government and its electoral cycle.
As S&P Global Market Intelligence’s lead analyst for United States, Dr. Raines provides in-depth insight into the inner workings of the US government and its electoral cycle. Dr. Raines presents his analysis in a manner that allows clients not only to understand the context of current US and global news events, but how those incidents will impact their industry's performance over time. He has appeared in numerous media outlets, such as The New York Times, The Washington Post, Time Magazine, BBC, NPR, CNBC, and The Associated Press, discussing topics like US elections, American foreign policy, and domestic legislation. In his role of principal global risk adviser, he has delivered dozens of keynote speeches and spoken to thousands of clients on macro country risk topics, from issues like populism and trade protection to US sanctions and international terrorism. In his previous work experience with the U.S. Department of State, he held roles responsible for conducting economic policy for the United States Embassy in Panama and overseeing the American Citizen Services unit in Hong Kong. He also worked at the World Bank, where he managed several projects in production of the World Development Indicators (WDI). His other assignments have included the U.S. Department of the Treasury as a Presidential Management Fellow, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the World Trade Center. Dr. Raines earned a Ph.D. in political science from Ohio State University and a master's degree in international relations from Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Study (SAIS).
Speaker
S&P Global Energy
Mark Ferguson
S&P Global Energy
Director, Metals & Mining Research
Mark Ferguson is the Research Director for the Metals & Mining Research group at S&P Global Energy. Having worked for previous iterations of the division since 2004, he has extensive experience in producing exploration and supply-side studies and topical research for the mining sector.
Increasingly focused on energy transition-related needs pertinent to the metals & mining sector, the Research team tracks the industry’s upstream efforts while assessing demand and price expectations for key industrial and battery metals.
Mark holds a Bachelor of Science in Geology/Geography from Saint Mary’s University, and an MSc in Earth Sciences from Dalhousie University.
Mohsen Bonakdarpour
Executive Director, Economic Consulting
Mohsen is Executive Director of consulting in S&P Global Market Intelligence, working on macroeconomic and industry economics since 1986.
Mohsen is Executive Director of consulting in S&P Global Market Intelligence, working on macroeconomic and industry economics since 1986. He brings more than 30 years of experience in macroeconomic, regional, and industry consulting with a strong focus on scenario analysis, economic impact assessments, and applications of market planning. Mohsen has been responsible for development of a detailed regional application (Business Market Insights) and global information and communication technology capability. He has expertise in regional economic impact assessment and is fluent in relevant modeling tools to a wide array of issues and policies. Mohsen worked as a partner with Cisco's Global Market Intelligence group to build a model to estimate total addressable market for network technologies and services. The model has become on the forefront of strategic marketing initiative for Cisco via their global market view model and database. Mohsen was the project manager for series of large scale energy related projects including Crude Oil Export Decision - the Fact-based study and analysis played an important role in lifting the ban, Americas New Energy Future - studies had an extraordinary impact at a time of debate over future of shale and was cited in Presidential State of the Union Address, and Restarting the Engine in US Gulf of Mexico - client used the research to have BOEMER accelerate licensing process in the Gulf of Mexico. Mohsen holds an M.A. in Economics and a B.S. in Economics and Computer Science from Temple University.
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Agnieszka Maciejewska
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Associate Director, Models & Scenarios, Global Intelligence & Analytics
Agnieszka is managing GTAS Forecasting team, which is creating bilateral trade forecast and team of analysts responsible for updating macroeconomic Global Link Model.
Agnieszka is managing GTAS Forecasting team, which is creating bilateral trade forecast and team of analysts responsible for updating macroeconomic Global Link Model. Agnieszka is focused on most recent trends in trade and trade pattern changes. She is contributing to supply chain analysis in reports, articles, conferences and webinars.
Agnieszka works on development of the S&P Global Global Link Model, which is the most comprehensive global macroeconomic model commercially available. Designed for forecasting and scenario planning, it links individual country models with each other and with key global drivers of performance.
Agnieszka holds a Master of Arts in international trade from University of Gdansk, Faculty of Economics where she also completed doctoral studies.
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