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Global Economic Outlook: September

How fast is inflation falling, and how resilient is economic growth? Identify the key issues facing policymakers and markets around the world. Explore our services to respond quickly to the changing business environment.

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Q3 Economies in Flux: Drive Decisions with the Purchasing Managers Index™

Recent data have shown a cooling in the pace of global economic growth after a better-than-expected second quarter. However, we had warned that this upturn had been fueled by the surprising resilience of consumer-facing services and financial services, both of which looked vulnerable to slowdowns given policy tightening and the higher cost of living squeeze. There is now evidence of these squeezes having a material impact on demand and economic growth.

Assess the developing situation with our Chief Business Economist, Chris Williamson, to get a timely update on the global economic landscape with our PMI data.


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  • September PMI™ Bulletin

    Global growth further lose momentum in August



    The global economic expansion further decelerated midway into the third quarter, sinking to the slowest in seven months. This is while global selling prices edged lower, though remained elevated by historical standards amid service sector-led stickiness of inflation.

    The J.P.Morgan Global PMI Composite Output Index - produced by S&P Global - posted 50.6 in August, down from 51.6 in July. This is the third straight month in which the rate of expansion declined to now sit at the slowest since the global economy returned to growth in February. The current reading is broadly consistent with an annualized quarterly global GDP growth of just under 1%, which is below the long-run average of 2.9%.

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  • Consumer Services

    Renewed fall in demand for consumer services bodes ill for growth but will pull inflation lower



    One key area of recent support to the global economy which is reporting a renewed decline in new orders - consumer services - is especially noteworthy, as this sector led the surprise growth revival seen globally in the second quarter. This growth spurt is now reversing amid rising interest rates and the increased cost of living.

    While this fading consumer spending spree on services is bad news for GDP growth in the world's major economies in the second half of 2023, it also signals a cooling of one of the major inflation hot spots seen in recent months, which could help pull global inflation lower in the coming months.
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