Weekly Pricing Pulse: MPI Shows Third Weekly Consecutive Decline

The Material Price Index (MPI) by S&P Global Market Intelligence declined by 0.1% last week, the third consecutive weekly decline. The decrease was mixed, with six of the ten subcomponents declining. The MPI is approximately 9.4% lower than it was the same week a year ago, indicating a general easing in commodity prices over the past 12 months.

Energy markets were the key upward driver last week, with the sub-index increasing by 1.2%. The OPEC crude oil basket price rose to $71.96 per barrel after two weeks of declines. This spike was influenced by seasonally strong demand, as refineries ramped up processing to meet the increased travel demand during the summer in the northern hemisphere. Market sentiment was also impacted by US President Donald Trump's announcement of a forthcoming statement on Russia, raising speculation about potential additional sanctions that could disrupt oil supplies. In contrast, non-ferrous metals experienced a decline, with the sub-index falling by 1.4%. Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange dropped by 2.8%, marking the largest weekly percentage decline since April 2025, to a weekly average of $9,768.15 per metric ton. This decrease was attributed to President Trump's announcement of a larger-than-expected 50% US import tariff on copper, which diminished the attractiveness of shipping copper to the US and raised concerns about a slowing global economy and its impact on copper demand.

Markets remained focused on tariff developments last week, particularly as the Trump administration extended the deadline for a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs to August 1, threatening high rates for Canada and Brazil. The administration concluded its Section 232 investigation into US copper imports, announcing 50% tariffs on copper starting August 1. Additionally, Trump revealed plans for up to 200% tariffs on pharmaceutical imports, with enforcement delayed for 1 or 1.5 years. Meanwhile, the minutes from the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting indicated that a majority of officials are concerned about persistent inflation pressures from higher tariff rates. While an emerging divide exists within the FOMC regarding the timing and pace of potential rate cuts, S&P Global Market Intelligence expects the FOMC to remain on pause until December, although a rate cut could occur as soon as September if inflation softens. Overall, commodity market sentiment continues to be influenced by the recent trade policy developments. This week, key data releases include the consumer price index (CPI) and the producer price index (PPI) for the US, will give an indication of how trade policy developments are impacting the US economy.

—By Yan Hoong

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.