ECONOMICS COMMENTARY — Nov 18, 2021
Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 22 November 2021
The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.
IHS Markit releases flash PMIs for November in a week packed with economic data releases. Noteworthy updates include Q3 GDP from the US, Germany, Switzerland, Taiwan and Singapore. Meanwhile October US core PCE will also be due alongside the November Fed FOMC meeting minutes. The Bank of Korea also holds its policy meeting on Thursday.
Amid lingering inflation concerns, attributed to record supply delays, and a surge in COVID-19 cases in Europe, November's flash PMIs will offer valuable insights into economic conditions as we head towards the year end. The data are to be published at a time that the World Health Organisation (WHO) is warning that Europe is once again the epicentre of the COVID-19 pandemic. That said, better vaccination performance and greater resilience following earlier bouts of COVID-19 breakouts may insulate economies from some of the impact of rising case numbers, a conjecture that will be assessed with the help of the upcoming PMI releases.
Meanwhile the US releases a barrage of data including the second estimate of Q3 GDP. October core PCE will be in focus following the CPI surprises which, alongside better jobs readings, had led to various central bankers urging a more "hawkish" stance. The Fed's FOMC minutes may also prove useful in deciphering the mix of Fed members' thoughts with regards to how the Fed's goals are moving along.
Finally in APAC, Singapore and Taiwan provide detailed Q3 figures while the Bank of Korea (BoK) meets for the second time since their August surprise hike with the possibility of another hike distinctly in tow.
PMI commentary: Chris Williamson, Jingyi Pan
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI®) data are compiled by S&P Global for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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