ECONOMICS COMMENTARY — Dec 10, 2021
Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 13 December 2021
The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.
December flash PMIs will be released in a week packed with central bank meetings across the US, UK, eurozone, Japan and more. Other scheduled economic releases include US retail sales, UK inflation and labour market data plus eurozone industrial production. In APAC, China's industrial output and retail sales will be published alongside Japan's Q4 Tankan survey.
Clues as to the impact of the COVID-19 Omicron variant will be sought in the coming week. Hopes that Omicron may be less detrimental to the economy than earlier variants has supported markets in recent sessions, but there remains much uncertainty. While the Omicron variant's developments look set to remain a key market driver in the short-term, the attention is expected to be split with the FOMC meeting. This is particularly so after recent upbeat economic data, with Fed chair Powell's recent hawkish comments shaking markets.
Over in Europe the BoE and ECB meet with no changes to monetary policy expected in the upcoming meetings amid concerns over the Omicron variant, though the BoE in particular may see differing views. This follows the RBA this week, stating that economic recovery in Australia is expected to push through the Omicron episode. UK inflation figures will also be eagerly awaited following November's record PMI survey input cost inflation, with the monthly labour market report also viewed for signs of rising wage pressures.
China's retail sales and industrial production will meanwhile be updated and will come under scrutiny amid growing concerns over slowing growth.
PMI commentary: Chris Williamson, Jingyi Pan
APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas
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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI®) data are compiled by S&P Global for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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