US retailers project first year-over-year import cut in 19 months as tariffs bite

US imports this month will see their first year-over-year decline in more than a year and a half as the “true impact” of the Trump administration’s tariffs come to fruition, a major retail group said Friday. The National Retail Federation (NRF) also warned the negative growth will accelerate, with imports from June through September expected to be at least 20% lower than the corresponding month last year. 

“We are starting to see the true impact of President Trump’s tariffs on the supply chain,” Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, said in the group’s newly released Global Port Tracker (GPT) published with Hackett Associates.

Gold said the US tariffs will result in “higher costs for businesses as well as reduced cargo volumes.” 

“In the end, these tariffs will affect consumers in the form of higher prices and less availability on store shelves,” he said. 

That less availability will begin in May, with projected imports of 1.81 million TEUs down almost 13% from May 2024 and the first year-over-year drop in imports in 19 months, according to the GPT.

Imports for June through September are projected to see year-over-year declines of 20.2%, 23.4%, 21.5% and 21.2%, respectively. Expected June imports of 1.71 million TEUs would be the lowest for any month since March 2023, the GPT said.

Tariff impacts

Tariffs implemented by President Donald Trump in April “come at the most important time in the buying process” for retailers, said Gold, adding that many retailers are being forced to delay or cancel orders — with small retailers being especially impacted.

With a pre-tariff rush of imports that appears to have largely ended in January, the ratio of US retail inventories to sales, a barometer of inventory balance, was unchanged in February, at 1.31, according to US Census Bureau data.

Amid US importers increasingly canceling or suspending orders, ocean carriers are making capacity adjustments in the form of suspended services and blanked sailings.

“Container carriers are indeed dropping voyages and consolidating cargo and service to ensure that their vessels are as full as possible and to maintain economies of scale as demand declines,” said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates. 

While carriers have begun to suspend services on the trans-Pacific, Hackett added that reports of a “broken” supply chain and ships “making U-turns in mid-voyage” because of the tariffs are “very far from the truth and the reality on the ground.”

The GPT expects 12.13 million TEUs in US imports for the first half of 2025, up just 0.3% on the year and a significant downgrade from the 5.7% growth that was forecast before tariffs were implemented.

The GPT is published monthly using import data collected from 13 ports on the US East, West and Gulf coasts.

Originally published in the Journal of Commerce, May 9, 2025

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.