US Monthly GDP Index for February 2023

Monthly US GDP rose 0.2% in February. The increase was essentially accounted for by an increase in the pace of nonfarm inventory investment. Final sales were nearly flat. Within final sales, increases were recorded for residential fixed investment and the (imputed) portion of monthly GDP not covered by the monthly source data, while decreases were recorded for personal consumption expenditures, nonresidential fixed investment, and net exports. The level of monthly GDP averaged over January and February was 2.0% above the fourth-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest estimate of 1.9% annualized GDP growth in the first quarter is a small (0.2%) decline in monthly GDP in March.

S&P Global Market Intelligence's index of Monthly US GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.