Multiplying supply chain risks drive growth for global, US-based logistics firms

Volatility in global trade that is forcing shippers to rethink their supply chains will accelerate demand for domestic and international third-party logistics (3PL) services, according to logistics research firm Armstrong & Associates.

Global logistics firms are still recovering from 2023, when their combined revenue plummeted 21.4% after rising rapidly during the COVID-19 pandemic, Armstrong & Associates said in its annual report on the top 50 domestic and global 3PLs as ranked by revenue, released last week.

Amazon topped the list of both domestic and global 3PLs, with $156.2 billion in 3PL-related revenue, according to Armstrong. DHL Supply Chain & Global Forwarding was second in the global 3PL rankings, followed by Kuehne + Nagel.

C.H. Robinson Worldwide was second among the domestic 3PLs, followed by GXO Logistics and J.B. Hunt Transport Services.

In 2024, the global 3PL market stabilized and grew 3.4% to $1.22 trillion. The risk created by trade uncertainty and expanding conflicts will help push global gross 3PL revenue up another 2.7% in 2025 to $1.25 trillion, according to Armstrong.

That revenue should grow again by 4.9% in 2026 to $1.3 trillion, it said.

In the US 3PL market, Armstrong expects 4.5% growth in 3PL revenue to $321.8 billion this year after a 2.8% gain last year that brought domestic 3PL revenue to $307.9 billion.

The list of risks US importers and domestic shippers are trying to mitigate isn’t getting shorter. The Iranian government’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz amid Israel’s attack on the country could tie up already stretched global container capacity.

Armstrong & Associates’ data suggests some shippers are shifting focus to the risk of capacity shortages in North America should the impact of higher US tariffs result in tighter truck capacity as trucking companies trim capital spending on equipment.

In 2024, international transportation management was the fastest-growing sector of the US 3PL market, with revenue jumping 7.9% to $79.8 billion. This year, Armstrong expects dedicated contract carriage (DCC) to lead the market with 5.7% growth.

That indicates shippers are increasingly concerned about the potential for a sharper turn in the truckload market when freight demand eventually shifts. With no immediate end to a three-year trucking downturn in sight, large carriers continue to cut capacity.

The Journal of Commerce Truckload Capacity Index has dropped 18.3 percentage points as of the first quarter from its mid-2022 peak, and at 74.9, it is as low as it has been since 2014.

Gross revenue in the US DCC market climbed 5.9% in 2024 to $31.5 billion. Armstrong estimates DCC gross revenue will reach $33.2 billion this year.

That suggests shippers are once again looking to lock in capacity, as they did during COVID-19-related supply disruptions in 2021, to hedge against tariff-related reductions in over-the-road capacity.

Originally published in the Journal of Commerce, June 17, 2025

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.