Research — JUNE 19, 2025
ASML poised for AI-fueled rebound as EUV and High-NA demand surges
ASML Holding NV (NASDAQ: ASML), the Dutch semiconductor equipment company, is set to benefit from resurgent demand in 2025 as the semiconductor industry rebounds from a subdued year.
The company’s grip on the high-end lithography market — particularly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) systems used to manufacture cutting-edge chips — places it at the heart of the AI boom. Analysts are closely watching ASML’s latest “High-NA” EUV machines, which enable even finer chip production, a capability increasingly vital for next-gen applications like AI, high-performance computing, and mobile processors.
After a -14% year-on-year decline in EUV sales last year, Visible Alpha consensus shows analysts expect a sharp recovery in 2025, with EUV revenues forecast to climb +41% year-on-year to €11.1 billion. High-NA sales are expected to triple, rising from €465 million in 2024 to €1.7 billion in 2025. In total, EUV including High-NA sales are projected to rise +49% in 2025.
This resurgence is expected to drive overall net sales up +14% in 2025 to €32.3 billion. However, the company continues to face headwinds in China, where export restrictions are set to weigh heavily. Sales from the region are forecast to fall-36% in 2025 to €5.7 billion, down from 9 billion last year.
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This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.
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