Blog - 21 May, 2025
APAC Tariff Alert - China in Focus: Impact of Post-Tariff Share Buybacks on Future Dividends
The recent surge in share buyback announcements by Chinese A-listed companies reflects a strategic response to external trade shocks and domestic policy incentives following the Trump administration's "reciprocal tariffs" implemented in April this year. Since 2024, the Chinese regulatory framework has actively encouraged buybacks, with the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) revising rules to streamline buyback procedures and introducing stock repurchase-specific loans to reduce financing costs. Additionally, state-backed entities such as Central Huijin and China Chengtong have further bolstered market stability efforts by purchasing ETFs and blue-chip stocks, signaling a coordinated "quasi-stabilization fund" approach to counter panic-driven selloffs.
These buyback announcements are predominantly from industry leaders and export-heavy sectors, aiming to mitigate risks from tariffs and optimize shareholder value. While share buybacks may temporarily reduce a company's cash reserves and limit its dividend capacity in the near term, they can ultimately enhance earnings per share (EPS) and promote a growing dividend trend if not pursued excessively.
From a dividend perspective, we are analyzing the impact of these recent share buyback announcements on upcoming dividend payouts. In our assessment, we categorize the potential effects from high to low, particularly if the recent buyback plans significantly limit cash dividend payout capacity and necessitate adjustments to the dividend per share (DPS) compared to prior levels.
To see company level details, please click here.
| Name | Isin | MarketCap (CNY billion) | Buyback Plan Size | FCF FY0 (CNY billion) |
LTM Div Size (CNY billion) |
Impact on DPS | Next DPS Estimate | Next XD Estimate | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kweichow Moutai Co | CNE0000018R8 | 1970.9 | CNY 3 - 6 billion | 63.7 | 64.7 | Low | 27.6240 | 6/18/2025 | Limited impact for the dividend payments admid the solid earnings and consistent dividend policy. |
| Midea Group Co Ltd | CNE100001QQ5 | 534.7 | CNY 1.5-3 billion | 4.1 | 26.7 | Low | 3.5000 | 6/5/2025 | Steady dividend growth track record. Strong cash position. Low percentage of share buybacks relative to total capital. |
| Zijin Mining Group | CNE100000B24 | 444.5 | CNY 0.6-1 billion | 13.1 | 10.0 | Low | 0.2800 | 5/21/2025 | The company is sitting on 21 billion undistributed profit, allowing both share buyback and dividends. |
| FOXCONN INDUSTRIAL INTERNET | CNE1000031P3 | 359.4 | CNY 0.5 - 1 billion | N.A. | 11.5 | Medium | 0.6300 | 8/14/2025 | Revised down the final dividend forecast for the company from CNY 0.68 to CNY 0.63. Hold conservative outlook considering the buyback. |
| Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine | CNE0000014W7 | 307.6 | CNY 0.6-1.2 billion | 4.4 | 1.3 | Low | 0.2000 | 6/25/2025 | FY24 performances were strong with profit increased by more tham 45% to 6 billion, driven by the new drugs. |
| Guotai Junan Securities | CNE1000022F3 | 270.3 | CNY 1-2 billion | N.A. | 4.0 | Low | 0.2800 | 6/27/2025 | Company reported 45% to 65% y/y increase in profit for Q1, limited impact on dividends. Monitoring the events post the merger. |
| China Pacific Insurance (Group) | CNE1000008M8 | 262.6 | TBC | -63.4 | 9.8 | Low | 1.0800 | 7/11/2025 | Limited impact for the dividend outlook amid solid performance. |
| Luxshare Precision Industry Co. | CNE100000TP3 | 232.9 | CNY 1-2 billion | 11.4 | 2.1 | Low | 0.3600 | 7/10/2025 | Continue to expect 20% payout from the company, limited impact from buyback. |
| Muyuan Foodstuff Co | CNE100001RQ3 | 221.9 | CNY 3-4 billion | 8.7 | 7.7 | Low | 0.5720 | 7/10/2025 | Company reported more than two times surge in net profit amid earnings recovery. Buyback has limited impact to the dividend outlook. |
| Haier Smart Home | CNE000000CG9 | 216.9 | CNY 1-2 billion | 8.4 | 9.0 | Low | 0.9650 | 7/24/2025 | The management expects to improve the payout ratio to over 50% by FY25 and FY26, according to its shareholder rewarding plan for FY24-FY26. |
| COSCO Shipping Holdings | CNE100000601 | 208.5 | CNY 0.74~1.48 billion | 27.9 | 24.4 | Medium | 1.0300 | 6/19/2025 | As highlighted by the 'Action Plan of Increasing Shareholder Returns', the company shall distribute 30% to 50% of distributable profits in a given year as its full year dividends (including both interim and final). Potential negative impact from tariffs persists. |
| S.F. Holding Co | CNE100000L63 | 206.5 | CNY 0.5~1 billion | 16.4 | 4.2 | Low | 0.4400 | 5/14/2025 | The company released its shareholder rewarding plan (2024 - 2028) and confirmed to at least maintain and steadily increase FY2023's level of payout ratio going forward. Also solid earnings performance is expected. |
| Wanhua Chemical Group Co | CNE0000016J9 | 189.0 | CNY 0.3-0.5 billion | 3.1 | 3.9 | Medium | 0.7300 | 5/29/2025 | Company reported muted earnings for FY24 report with double-digit decline in net profit around 20% amid the geopotical tensions. Share price declined 20% over the past months. We hold conservative approach for the dividend outlook for the company. |
| Nari Technology Development | CNE000001G38 | 187.1 | CNY 0.5~1 billion | 4.9 | 4.3 | Low | 0.4650 | 6/16/2025 | The company initiated interim dividend for FY24, reflecting its determination of increasing shareholder return. |
| Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group | CNE000000JP5 | 185.5 | CNY 1-2 billion | 5.2 | 7.6 | Medium | 1.3200 | 6/4/2025 | Revised down the final dividend forecast from CNY1.4 to CNY1.32, continue to expect around 70% payout ratio for the company. |
| China National Nuclear Power | CNE1000022N7 | 174.3 | CNY 0.3-0.5 billion | -38.6 | 3.7 | Medium | 0.1620 | 7/16/2025 | Revise down the final dividend for the company from CNY0.22 to CNY0.162 considering the buyback and muted earnings reported. |
| Sany Heavy Industry | CNE000001F70 | 162.3 | CNY 1~2 billion | 7.9 | 1.9 | Low | 0.2800 | 6/23/2025 | Payout ratio stablized at around 30%. Repurchase amount is small relative to total capital. |
| Will Semiconductor | CNE100002XM8 | 154.7 | CNY 0.6~1.2 billion | 2.0 | 0.5 | Medium | 0.2200 | 8/13/2025 | The company initiated interim dividend for FY24, reflecting its determination of increasing shareholder return. Limited impact from US tariffs due to 5% revenue exposure. |
| Wuxi AppTec | CNE1000031K4 | 149.0 | CNY 1 billion | 4.8 | 2.8 | Low | 0.9817 | 6/26/2025 | No impacts seen in short term. |
| Boe Technology Group | CNE0000016L5 | 138.7 | No less than CNY 1.5 billion | N.A. | 1.2 | Medium | 0.0500 | 6/19/2025 | Payout ratios volatile between 15% to 70% and the company tends to raise payout ratio in response to strong earnings growth. Earnings may impact from tariffs by around 5%. |
| Weichai Power Co | CNE1000000D4 | 132.5 | CNY 0.1~1 billion | 13.5 | 6.4 | Low | 0.3470 | 6/30/2025 | Strong earnings, and rising opportunities from engine import substitution and agricultural equipment. |
| China Railway Group | CNE100000866 | 129.8 | CNY 0.1-0.2 billion | -25.5 | 4.4 | Low | 0.1780 | 7/16/2025 | Company cut FY24 dividend mostly due to slide in profit. Low impacts from the repurchase. |
| XCMG Construction Machinery Co | CNE000000FH0 | 103.4 | CNY 1.8~3.6 billion | 0.1 | 2.1 | Low | 0.2200 | 7/3/2025 | The company maintained its payout ratio at around 20% in recent three years. |
| Shanghai Electric Group | CNE100000D55 | 98.0 | CNY 0.15~0.3 billion | 10.3 | 0.0 | Low | 0.0000 | - | Per the fundamentals, we expect suspension for the company. (It's announced) |
| Zhejiang Sanhua Co | CNE000001M22 | 93.5 | CNY 0.3~0.6 billion | -0.1 | 1.3 | Low | 0.2500 | 5/15/2025 | The company tends to pay out approx. 30-50% of earnings when no material acquisition occurred. |
| AVIC Jonhon Optronic Technology Co | CNE1000007T5 | 91.8 | CNY 0.1~0.2 billion | -0.1 | 1.7 | Low | 0.8000 | 5/21/2025 | Strong growth in performance-linked payouts considering a generally stable earnings growth outlook and healthy cash levels. |
| China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings | CNE1000032B1 | 88.6 | CNY 0.31~0.62 billion | 3.7 | 2.8 | Low | 0.4170 | 7/29/2025 | Payout ratio was at around 55% with solid earnings performance. |
| China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Co | CNE100002FC6 | 87.4 | CNY 0.351 - 0.702 billion | 26.2 | 1.8 | Low | 0.1935 | 7/23/2025 | Expect payout ratio to be maintained around 50% in the near term, hold conservative outlook for the company's dividend outlook in the near term. |
| Inner Mongolian Baotou Steel Union | CNE0000017H1 | 80.7 | CNY 0.1-0.2 billion | -0.7 | 0.0 | Low | 0.0000 | - | Not expected to pay dividend for FY24. |
| Sichuan Road & Bridge | CNE000001DQ4 | 73.7 | CNY 0.1-0.2 billion | -10.2 | 4.5 | Low | 0.5200 | 7/16/2025 | Small repurchase amount relative to its annual profit and dividend payment. |
| TCL Technology Group Corp | CNE000001GL8 | 73.0 | CNY 0.7~0.8 billion | -14.8 | 1.5 | Medium | 0.0600 | 6/4/2025 | Performance may continue to be sluggish due to low demand for display terminals. |
| GoerTek Inc | CNE100000BP1 | 72.8 | CNY 0.5~1 billion | 1.2 | 1.0 | High | 0.1500 | 5/30/2025 | ~80% rev exposure to its top 3 overseas clients and ~30% rev to the US market. Uncertainties remain despite temporary exemption from tariffs of CE products. |
| Orient Securities Co | CNE100001ZV6 | 71.2 | CNY 0.25-0.5 billion | N.A. | 1.9 | Low | 0.1000 | 6/27/2025 | Company reported nearly 62% increase for the core profit which mainly due to the surge in wealth management income. Buyback has limited impact. |
| Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co | CNE0000012M2 | 70.3 | CNY 0.2~0.3 billion | -1.4 | 0.2 | Low | 0.1150 | 6/23/2025 | Dividend payout is highly correlated to earnings and the payout ratio is typically at around 10%. |
| Guangzhou Automobile Group | CNE100001NQ2 | 66.3 | CNY 0.1~0.2 billion | -2.0 | 0.3 | Low | 0.0200 | 6/13/2025 | Since FY14, payout ratio has been at above 30%, especially to be at 35% in recent five years. |
| Zhejiang NHU Co | CNE000001J84 | 63.7 | CNY 0.3-0.6 billion | 3.5 | 1.5 | Low | 0.5000 | 5/28/2025 | Limited impact for company's dividend outlok amid the earnings recovery with more than 100% surge in earnings for Q1 FY25. |
| Unigroup Guoxin Co | CNE000001M14 | 60.5 | CNY 0.1~0.2 billion | N.A. | 0.6 | Medium | 0.2700 | 6/23/2025 | Low visibility on specialty IC demand and pricing turnarounds. |
| Zhejiang Satellite Petrochemical Co | CNE100001B07 | 59.2 | CNY 0.2-0.4 billion | 7.6 | 1.7 | Low | 0.5000 | 5/14/2025 | Limited impact for company's dividend outlok amid the earnings surge. |
| Shanjin International Gold | CNE0000012L4 | 59.1 | CNY 0.1~0.2 billion | 1.9 | 1.0 | Low | 0.3650 | 5/12/2025 | Small amount compared to annual profit of 2 billion in FY24. |
| Sieyuan Electric Co | CNE000001KM8 | 57.9 | CNY 0.3~0.5 billion | N.A. | 0.3 | Low | 0.4000 | 6/23/2025 | The company maintained its payout ratio from 12% to 18% in the past three years. |
| Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) | CNE000000X38 | 57.4 | CNY 0.3-0.6 billion | -0.3 | 0.9 | Low | 0.3200 | 8/6/2025 | Company's profit increased 16% to 2.7 billion. Repurchase amount is small relative to that. |
| Sanan Optoelectronics | CNE000000KB3 | 56.9 | CNY 1-1.5 billion | 0.1 | 0.1 | Low | 0.0500 | 6/13/2025 | Revenue and earnings expected to surge in FY24 |
| NINGBO DEYE TECHNOLOGY | CNE1000052S3 | 55.6 | CNY 0.1~0.2 billion | N.A. | 1.0 | Low | 1.3000 | 5/29/2025 | The company even initiated Q3 dividend for FY24 in response to the government's calling for increasing shareholder return. Repurchase amount is small relative to total capital. |
| AVIC AIRBORNE SYSTEMS | CNE0000018C0 | 53.1 | CNY 0.3~0.5 billion | -4.3 | 0.3 | Low | 0.0700 | 5/23/2025 | The company kept its ratio at around 25-30%. |
| Spring Airlines Co | CNE100001V45 | 52.6 | CNY 0.15-0.3 billion | 2.1 | 0.7 | Low | 0.4000 | 8/11/2025 | Small repurchase amount relative to its 9M profit and operating cash flows of 2.6 and 5.5 billion respectively. |
| Lingyi iTech (Guangdong) Co | CNE1000015L5 | 50.8 | CNY 0.05-0.1 billion | -0.1 | 0.1 | Low | 0.0200 | 5/30/2025 | Company stated if total capital changes before dividend implementation this year, the dividend per share amount won't be impacted. Aggregate dividend amount will be adjusted accordingly. |
| Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co. | CNE100000BJ4 | 50.3 | CNY 0.3~0.5 billion | -0.2 | 2.1 | Low | 0.4580 | 5/22/2025 | Payout ratio has been staying in the 12%-25% range in the past five years. |
| China Merchants Energy Shipping | CNE000001PQ8 | 48.9 | CNY 0.22~0.44 billion | -0.1 | 1.3 | Medium | 0.1560 | 6/19/2025 | The company initiated interim dividend for FY24, reflecting its determination of increasing shareholder return. Upside risks from crude tankers and dry bulkers, but downside risks form container shipping under tariffs. |
| Hundsun Technologies Inc | CNE000001GD5 | 48.8 | CNY 0.2~0.4 billion | 0.7 | 0.2 | Low | 0.1000 | 6/16/2025 | Given weak earnings in recent two years, we expect a payout ratio at around 15-20%. |
| Yonyou Network Technology | CNE0000017Y6 | 47.1 | CNY 0.5~1 billion | -1.7 | 0.0 | Medium | 0.0000 | - | Per the fundamentals, we expect suspension for the company. Buyback further squeeze the possibility of resuming dividends. |
| Zhejiang Chint Electronics Co | CNE100000KD8 | 46.5 | CNY 0.27~0.54 billion | -7.5 | 1.2 | Low | 0.6200 | 7/17/2025 | We current forecast based on an average of around 25% when analysts are expecting earnings to grow at low double digit rate for the near term. |
| Shanghai Raas Blood Products Co | CNE100000C31 | 45.4 | CNY 0.5-1 billion | -1.2 | 0.2 | Low | 0.3000 | 6/5/2025 | The company pays fixed final dividend at CNY 0.3 per share. Low repurchace amount relative to the the annual profit level. |
| Sichuan Changhong Electric | CNE000000GJ4 | 45.0 | CNY 0.25-0.5 billion | 2.8 | 0.2 | Low | 0.0000 | 8/12/2025 | Zero dividend expected. |
| Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical | CNE000001BM7 | 44.6 | CNY 0.2-0.3 billion | -0.2 | 1.3 | Low | 0.3000 | 6/18/2025 | Company maintained flat dividend amid the single-digit increase in profit for FY2024. Taking the buyback into consideration, we hold conservative outlook for the company's dividend payments in the near future. |
| SDIC Capital Co | CNE000000Q11 | 43.7 | CNY 0.2-0.4 billion | N.A. | 0.8 | Low | 0.1270 | 7/3/2025 | Limited impact for the dividend outlook amid solid performance. |
| ZHONGTAI SECURITIES | CNE100004900 | 42.8 | CNY 0.3-0.5 billion | N.A. | 0.2 | Medium | 0.0250 | 6/18/2025 | Compared to the peers, company's payout ratio is less than 30%. Core profit declined more than 40% y/y in FY24 amid the muted investment return. We hold conservative outlook for company's dividend payments in the near term. |
| Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manuf Co. | CNE100000N79 | 42.4 | CNY 0.1-0.2 billion | N.A. | 0.4 | High | 0.1200 | 6/5/2025 | Earnings estimated to decline for FY24. High div base last year. Share buyback compared to last year's div (425million) is relatively large. |
| Wingtech Technology Co Ltd | CNE000000M72 | 38.9 | CNY 0.2-0.5 billion | -2.0 | 0.2 | High | 0.0000 | - | Amid the US sanction, company announced to sell off CNY 4.6 bn assembly assets to Luxshare. Company also announced nearly 80% decline in Q3 report. We highlight the riks of potential suspension for the company. |
| Shandong Nanshan Aluminium | CNE000001139 | 38.9 | CNY 0.3-0.6 billion | 3.9 | 2.0 | Low | 0.0900 | 4/23/2025 | Small repurchase amount relative to its FY24 annual profit, which has increased by 36% to CNY 4.8 billion. |
| Huagong Tech Co | CNE000001303 | 37.7 | CNY 0.3-0.4 billion | -0.4 | 0.2 | High | 0.2000 | 7/3/2025 | Share buyback total amount is significant compared to dividend total amount proposed. Company states it will adjust per share div if share capital changes. |
| Henan Shen Huo Coal Industry And Electricity Power | CNE000001097 | 37.2 | CNY 0.25-0.45 billion | 0.8 | 1.8 | Low | 0.5000 | 5/16/2025 | Company states it will not adjust per share div but adjust the total dividend amount if share capital changes. |
| Caitong Securities | CNE100002V44 | 34.4 | CNY 0.15-0.3 billion | N.A. | 0.7 | Low | 0.1000 | 6/9/2025 | Low percentage of share buybacks relative to total capital. |
| Zhejiang Shimge Pump Industry Co | CNE100000YJ6 | 34.0 | CNY 0.2-0.3 billion | 8.9 | 1.7 | Medium | 0.4000 | 6/18/2025 | Takes up 0.43% of total capital of the company according to company estimate. |
| Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group | CNE100000L55 | 31.7 | CNY 0.15-0.25 billion | 1.1 | 0.8 | Medium | 0.6900 | 6/19/2025 | Company states it will adjust per share div if share capital changes. FY24 final div total amount at around 700 million CNY. |
| Liaoning Port Co | CNE100000X77 | 31.0 | CNY 0.42-0.84 billion | 4.4 | 0.6 | Low | 0.0239 | 7/17/2025 | Continue the share buyback plan started in 2024. |
| Wintime Energy Co | CNE000000WD4 | 29.9 | CNY 0.15-0.3 billion | 3.9 | 0.1 | Low | 0.0070 | 7/30/2025 | Continue the share buyback plan started in 2024. |
| Sinolink Securities | CNE000000SV4 | 29.3 | CNY 0.05-0.1 billion | N.A. | 0.5 | Medium | 0.1400 | 7/9/2025 | High base dividend last year. 30% div payout last year vs. 10% payout in previous years. |
| Pangang Group | CNE0000007H2 | 25.0 | CNY0.1-0.2 billion | -0.5 | 0.0 | Low | 0.0000 | - | Not a dividend payer. |
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