Banking Risk Monthly Outlook: November 2026

Global banking risk in November 2026 centers on a shift away from state ownership of banks and on new liquidity and deposit-protection rules. Sales of state-owned banks in Ukraine and Egypt, and a possible delay to bank IPOs in Indonesia, are likely to affect bank capital and funding.

Regulators in Brazil and Ghana are also tightening deposit-insurance and liquidity requirements. These changes should strengthen resilience over time, but they may raise compliance costs and slow credit growth for smaller banks.

Banking risk in emerging markets this month is shaped by changes in who owns banks and by new rules on liquidity and deposit protection. Plans to sell state-owned banks, a possible shift in Indonesia's market status, and tighter regulation in Brazil and Ghana are likely to affect bank funding, capital and lending.

• Potential removal of the Indonesia Stock Exchange from the MSCI Emerging Markets Index will lead to a delay in initial public offerings of Indonesian banks.
• Ukraine is expected to advance the privatization of Sense Bank and Ukrgasbank.
• Brazilian authorities will continue reviewing deposit-insurance and liquidity arrangements following the Banco Master liquidation. 
• Egypt's Banque du Caire has set the price for its November initial public offering, and we expect a strong improvement in capital position for Banque Misr.
• Ghanaian commercial banks are scheduled to implement the liquidity coverage ratio from September 2027, a move that is expected to enhance the sector’s liquidity resilience and align domestic regulation more closely with Basel III standards.

Potential removal of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) from the MSCI Emerging Markets Index will lead to a delay in IPO of Indonesian banks. 

MSCI is assessing a reclassification of Indonesia's stock exchange from its Emerging Markets index into a standalone market. The subsequent withdrawal of funds from the stock exchange will likely impact the valuation of shares of potential IPOs.

For the banking sector, one potential impact is the part-privatization of the state-owned Bank Jakarta destined for 2027. The delay will impact the banks' ability to boost its capital to increase lending to the economy. The second is the secondary listing of additional shares in the IDX by banks with concentrated ownership, such as CIMB Niaga, to comply with the revised March 2026 ownership rule issued by the Financial Services Authority and the IDX, which requires banks to have at least 15% of its shares listed by March 2028.  

Ukraine is expected to advance the privatization of Sense Bank and Ukrgasbank. 

On Oct. 18, the government established a commission to oversee the sale of the state's stakes in both banks, while the Ministry of Finance has selected advisers for the transactions. The commission will determine tender procedures, approve starting prices and select winning bidders before submitting its decisions to the government for approval.

Successful privatizations would reduce the state's footprint in the banking sector, while providing a route for strategic investments into the country as part of post-conflict reconstruction efforts.

Privatizations would begin the process of disentangling the sovereign-bank nexus, which includes state ownership of the largest banks in the sector, with Sense Bank and Ukrgasbank the smallest of these. The Ministry of Finance's financial adviser tender envisages an engagement period running until March 2029, suggesting that preparation and execution could extend over several years. 

Brazilian authorities will continue reviewing deposit-insurance and liquidity arrangements following the Banco Master liquidation.

The bank’s causes of stress have highlighted the need for improving the design and funding of Brazil’s deposit-protection framework and the prudential treatment of smaller lenders. Further regulatory adjustments could strengthen depositor protection and reduce vulnerabilities exposed by the resolution process. Tighter liquidity or funding requirements could also raise compliance costs and constrain balance-sheet growth among smaller banks.

Changes to the framework of the Credit Guarantee Fund — the deposit insurance of the country — or to prudential requirements and the treatment of institutions with more vulnerable funding structures, will remain important indicators of the broader regulatory consequences of Banco Master’s failure.

Egypt’s Banque du Caire has set the price for its November initial public offering, and we expect a strong improvement in capital position for Banque Misr.

As one of the most significant privatization initiatives, Banque du Caire has priced its long-delayed IPO on the Egyptian Exchange (EGX) at 5.30 Egyptian pounds per share. The offering is expected to raise approximately US$658 million and include a stake of up to 45%, leading it to the largest IPO on the EGX.

The private placement has shown strong investor demand. After Banque du Caire's official listing on the EGX in early November, all IPO and divestment proceeds will be collected by Banque du Caire's current largest shareholder, state-owned Banque Misr.

This transaction will likely strengthen the capital position and liquidity of Banque Misr in the immediate term. Scaling back state ownership in the banking sector will effectively reduce the sovereign-bank nexus.