US Monthly GDP Index for July

Monthly GDP increased 0.7% in July after a 0.3% increase in June. The increase in July was driven by a large increase in Nonfarm CIPI. Final sales to domestic purchasers posted a moderate gain in July for the third consecutive month, reflecting gains in personal consumption expenditures and nonresidential fixed investment. The level of monthly GDP in July was 3.5% above the second-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest tracking forecast of 2.6% annualized GDP growth in the third quarter is a partial reversal in August of the July gain followed by a moderate increase in September.

S&P Global Market Intelligence’s index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts.  The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP.  Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP.  Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.