S&P 500 ETF dividends: IVV, VOO, SPY: DPS forecast for Q3 2026

Dividend growth across the S&P 500 remains strong in 2026, with aggregate regular cash dividends from index constituents projected to increase 8.8% year over year to approximately $740 billion. While IVV, VOO and SPY all track the same benchmark, differences in fund structure and distribution practices have contributed to distinct distribution growth trends over time.

According to our latest estimates, IVV is expected to record the strongest distribution growth in 2026, while VOO and SPY continue to exhibit more consistent historical distribution patterns.

Key takeaways

• Aggregate S&P 500 regular cash dividends are expected to reach approximately $740 billion in 2026.
• IVV is forecast to deliver the highest distribution growth among the three ETFs this year.
• VOO and SPY have historically shown more consistent annual distribution growth patterns.
• Bull-case distribution scenarios imply larger potential increases than the declines reflected in bear-case scenarios for all three ETFs.

Annual dividend growth trends: Same benchmark, Different patterns

The chart illustrates how annual distributions have evolved across the three funds despite their shared benchmark. IVV's distributions have been more volatile, including declines in 2021 and 2025, but the fund is estimated to rebound sharply in 2026. In contrast, VOO and SPY have demonstrated steadier distribution growth trends that more closely align with changes in underlying S&P 500 dividends.

Key factors influencing third-quarter distributions include upcoming dividend announcements from TransDigm, UnitedHealth Group, Home Depot, McDonald's and Visa. TransDigm's potential special dividend remains one of the largest variables in our forecast and could materially affect final ETF distributions.