Consensus highlights rapid sales ramp for Revolution Medicines' lead cancer drug

Revolution Medicines Inc.'s (NASDAQ: RVMD) experimental pancreatic cancer therapy, daraxonrasib, has moved a step closer to market after the European Medicines Agency's Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) began a phased review of the drug, an accelerated regulatory pathway that allows data to be assessed as it becomes available. The move follows the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's decision in May to permit expanded access to the treatment for eligible patients.

The regulatory momentum comes after pivotal Phase III trial results published in April showed daraxonrasib more than doubled median overall survival to 13.2 months from 6.7 months for standard chemotherapy in previously treated metastatic pancreatic cancer patients, while also demonstrating meaningful improvements in progression-free survival and quality of life. The oral therapy is the first RAS(ON) inhibitor to deliver positive late-stage results in this setting, targeting a broad range of RAS mutations that drive the vast majority of pancreatic cancers.

Visible Alpha consensus reflects increasing confidence in the program, with analysts assigning daraxonrasib an 81.67% probability of regulatory success in pancreatic cancer, with approval expected later this year.

Analysts forecast the drug, which will be Revolution Medicines' first commercial product, to generate approximately $74 million in risk-adjusted sales in 2026. Revenue is then projected to accelerate sharply to $648 million in 2027, exceed the blockbuster threshold at $1.2 billion in 2028, and approach $9 billion by 2040.

 This article was published by Visible Alpha, part of S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.