Praxis setback clouds seizure drug prospects, dents long-term sales expectations

Praxis Precision Medicines Inc. (NASDAQ: PRAX) has halted enrolment in a late-stage trial of its lead seizure therapy after disappointing mid-stage results. The company announced earlier this week that its Phase 2/3 POWER1 study of vormatrigine in focal onset seizures failed to meet its primary endpoint, undermining hopes that the experimental therapy could meaningfully reduce seizure frequency in a large and commercially attractive patient population.

Shares fell 23% following the announcement, and analysts have since reassessed the drug’s commercial potential, trimming both probability of success and long-term revenue expectations.

Visible Alpha consensus shows the probability of success for vormatrigine has been cut to 51.7%, from 68.1% prior to the readout. Revenue forecasts have also been marked down across the curve. The drug, previously expected to launch in late 2027, is now projected to generate risk-adjusted revenue of $54 million in 2028, its first full year on the market, compared with earlier estimates of $76 million.

Longer-term expectations have been reset more sharply. Sales once penciled in at $1 billion by 2033 are now forecast at $707 million, with blockbuster status pushed out to 2036. By 2040, analysts now see revenue reaching $1.4 billion, down from prior projections of $2.5 billion.

 This article was published by Visible Alpha, part of S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.