Picture This: World Cup Security Risks

What we know

The 2026 men’s FIFA World Cup is scheduled to take place in Canada, Mexico and the US from June 11 to July 19. Forty-eight national teams will compete at venues in 16 host cities: two in Canada (Toronto and Vancouver), three in Mexico (Mexico City, Guadalajara and Monterrey), and 11 in the US (Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Houston, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Seattle and San Francisco Bay Area). 

The World Cup is designated by the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) as a Special Event Assessment Rating (SEAR) Level 1 event, the highest federal security classification, requiring the integration of physical barriers, surveillance and emergency protocols. Approximately 50,000 police and security personnel will be deployed across all US venues, increasing capacity for intelligence collection/fusion, investigative disruption and interagency coordination.

In March, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced Plan Kukulcán, a security deployment including about 100,000 law enforcement personnel, more than 2,000 military and police vehicles, and 10,000 new CCTV cameras across 10 Mexican cities, but focused on the three host cities. 

Canada’s security plan for Vancouver and Toronto centers on Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP)-led multi-agency command structures, expanded border screening, more than 200 temporary surveillance cameras, and trilateral counter-uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) coordination with the US and Mexico. The RCMP’s Counter Drone Program is specifically mandated to provide operational support.

Why it matters

Extensive intelligence and security collaboration between the three host countries is likely to mitigate the risk to the World Cup finals.

Violent crime risks remain higher overall in Mexico than in the US and Canada, with multiple criminal groups present in all three Mexican host cities. However, there is a low likelihood of them engaging in violent attacks directly targeting World Cup events or visitors, with the highest risk being petty street crime in tourist areas.

Terrorist attacks targeting the event are less likely in Mexico. There are no known terrorist groups operating in Mexico City, Guadalajara or Monterrey. 

The World Cup has the potential to significantly boost economic activity in host countries. For example, in Qatar, which hosted the 2022 World Cup, real GDP grew by a robust 8.0% year over year in the fourth quarter of that year, propped up by strong services sector activity during the event in November-December.

However, our national and regional US economic teams have assessed the 2026 FIFA World Cup's potential economic impact and found the event is unlikely to produce a measurable effect in the data we forecast. The economic benefits of large sporting events are often overstated due to substitution effects, crowding out of regular economic activity, and profit leakages to international organizations.

Unlike the 1996 Atlanta Olympics—which drove measurable growth through multi-year infrastructure investments—the 2026 World Cup will use existing stadiums and be dispersed across 11 U.S. cities, diluting the regional impact. 

—With contributions from Michael Zdinak and Karl Kuykendall