The war in the Middle East will further increase the cost of US agricultural exports — and further diminish global demand — after a 2025 in which growth slowed despite the efforts by shippers to replace a rapidly vanishing Chinese market.

War-linked bunker fuel surcharges, as well as soaring diesel prices for inland truck and rail movements, could “add tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars to our costs,” Mike Symonanis, director of strategic network at Louis Dreyfus Company and chairman of the American Cotton Shippers Association, told the Journal of Commerce.

Symonanis said agricultural exporters are closely scrutinizing the surcharges, which will be most significant for small and midsize shippers, to determine whether they accurately reflect higher fuel costs borne by container lines.

“If the carrier says it costs them ‘X,’ how do we get to the point of substantiation? This will be an ongoing conversation between shippers and carriers,” he said.

For their part, carriers are attempting to mitigate the impact of rising bunker fuel costs through more direct sailings and slower steaming of vessels.

At the Port of Oakland, which handles agricultural exports from California’s Central Valley, “carriers are asking the terminals to work 24/7, so they spend less time in port,” said Bryan Brandes, the port’s maritime director.

Peter Friedmann, executive director of the Agriculture Transportation Coalition (AgTC), noted that the impact of those fees will intensify the longer the war drags on.

“Generally, costs are going up and will continue to go up until there is an end to the war,” Friedmann said. “The fuel surcharges will have a cascading effect on ag shippers’ costs as they are phased in.”

And although the US itself is a large producer of fertilizers, growers could also face higher costs for fertilizers if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for too long, with crops that consume large quantities of ammonia and phosphates particularly vulnerable.

Piling on the pressure

The additional costs for shippers — and resulting drag on demand abroad — come at a time when export growth was already slowing, primarily due to Chinese import tariffs in response to duties imposed by the Trump administration.

Containerized US agricultural exports grew 2.9% last year, but that was down from 7.1% growth in 2024, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Perhaps more alarming, outbound agricultural product shipments have declined at a compound annual rate of 1.7% since 2020.

“When the impact of tariffs is a higher price that other countries don’t have to deal with, that certainly diminishes our market access and encourages competitors to develop longer-term strategies to expand their market access,” said Buddy Allen, president and CEO of the American Cotton Shippers Association.

Both Allen and Mike Steenhoek, executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition, said products from Brazil have largely taken the place of US cotton and soybeans in the Chinese market, creating what Steenhoek described as “considerable headwinds” for exports.

Mainland China’s share of US agriculture exports fell to 6.2% from 15.7% in 2024 and as high as 23.7% in 2022, according to PIERS. In dollar terms, Chinese buyers purchased just $3.1 billion worth of soybeans in 2025, down from $17.9 billion the year before, Steenhoek said.

The rapid shift of agricultural exports to other markets is also being felt at the port level.

“Six years ago, about 70% of our cargo was tied to China. Today, it’s closer to 60%, with countries in Southeast Asia growing in importance,” said Noel Hacegaba, CEO of the Port of Long Beach. Cotton exports through Long Beach plummeted 90% last year, while soybean exports fell 95%, he said.

The good news for growers is that there is growing global demand for soybeans, which move primarily in bulk ships, as well as higher-value processed soybean products like meal and oils, which tend to move in containers. Steenhoek said promising markets include the Philippines, Colombia, Mexico, Canada, Guatemala, and Vietnam.

“Potentially, 2026 could be a good marketing year in terms of demand, but there are so many uncertainties ahead in terms of tariffs,” he said. “This is an industry where you are making your commitments today for deliveries months away.”
 

Originally published in the Journal of Commerce on May 4, 2026.