Blog — 08 May, 2026
Large M&A deals defy volatile market
Article Highlights
- The total value of M&A grew 13.2% compared to the year-ago period, even though the number of transactions fell to its lowest level since the start of the M&A downturn in 2022.
- Large M&A and IPO activity remained resilient even with the war in the Middle East and other concerns, such as disruption from AI and a potential private credit cycle, sending shockwaves through global economies.
- Big-ticket deals did help boost the total value of transactions, and investment bankers remain hopeful that large deals will continue to come to market. However, the total number of transactions remains muted, underscoring the uneven nature of the dealmaking recovery.
Market volatility that first started with concerns stemming from private credit and then spread to fallout related to the Iran war has clouded the outlook for dealmaking.
During the first quarter, VIX, the Cboe index that measures expected volatility in the S&P 500, recorded an average close of 20.5, up from 17.8 in the prior quarter and 18.6 in the year ago. Volatility was especially elevated in March when the average close increased to 25.6.
The increase coincided with the start of the war in the Middle East after the US and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28. With volatility, the number of announced global M&A transactions fell to its lowest level since 2023, and equity transactions were extremely muted.
Despite the disruptions, large transactions continued to come to market — even in March — which helped prop up deal value totals for M&A and equity transactions. Three of the five largest equity deals of the quarter were completed in March, while the two largest M&A deals of the quarter were announced on March 31.
Large deals driving the activity continue a theme that persisted through 2025. But a lack of smaller transactions underscores how the dealmaking environment is not yet firing on all cylinders.