Wegovy’s early lead to narrow as Eli Lilly prepares Foundayo launch

Earlier this month, Eli Lilly and Co. (NYSE: LLY) secured U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval for its once-daily obesity pill, orforglipron (brand name Foundayo), becoming only the second entrant in a nascent but potentially vast oral GLP-1 market. The approval follows Novo Nordisk A/S’s launch of an oral version of Wegovy in January, giving the Danish group an early commercial foothold in a category widely viewed as the next phase of the obesity drug market.

Visible Alpha consensus forecasts suggest that Novo Nordisk’s first-mover advantage may prove fleeting. While Wegovy is expected to dominate near-term revenues, analysts see Lilly’s oral candidate driving a larger share of long-term growth.

Orforglipron is projected to generate about $1.6 billion in revenue in 2026, compared with $11.4 billion for Wegovy, which itself is seen easing from roughly $12.4 billion in 2025 as competition intensifies. Beyond the initial ramp, however, Lilly’s trajectory steepens. Revenues are forecast to reach $4.9 billion in 2027 and climb to $14.2 billion by 2030, overtaking Wegovy, which is expected to generate about $12.3 billion by the end of the decade.

The backdrop is a fiercely contested GLP-1 landscape, where both companies are investing heavily to expand manufacturing capacity and develop next-generation therapies. Lilly’s broader metabolic franchise, which is anchored by Mounjaro and Zepbound has already reshaped its earnings profile and expectations.

Attention now turns to Lilly’s first-quarter results, due Thursday, April 30.

Analysts expect revenues to rise 37% year-on-year to $17.4 billion, with non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $6.77. Diabetes treatments remain the dominant engine, accounting for roughly 76% of sales, with the segment forecast to deliver $13.5 billion in Q1, including $7 billion from Mounjaro and $4 billion from Zepbound. Other divisions are set to play a more modest role: oncology revenues are projected to grow 8% to $2.1 billion, immunology 14% to $1.2 billion, and neuroscience 25% to $340 million.

This article was published by Visible Alpha, part of S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.