Blog — April 22, 2026
A reinvigorated market: Brazil’s 7-year mobile projections
Mobile service revenue is projected to reach a 2.9% CAGR, driven by postpaid and 5G growth.
Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) is set to grow at 2.4% CAGR, from $6.28 to $7.43.
In total, Brazil had 80,128 towers by the end of 2025, a 1.8% increase compared to the previous year.
Brazil’s mobile market has come through a turbulent few years: [BA1] Oi’s mobile assets sell off in 2021 and the subsequent and recent divestment of the fixed network; the emergence of growing regional operators; the rapid growth of, and opportunity for, mobile services, especially as operators ramp up standalone 5G investments with new funding in play; and regulatory moves to provide more low range spectrum for smaller players and to streamline licensing for MVNOs, in addition to the growth of 5G and eSIMs, have lowered barriers to market. These moves are driving a more vibrant market, with Kagan forecasting mobile service revenue to reach a 2.9% CAGR, driven by postpaid and 5G growth, pushing ARPUs from $6.28 to $7.43, representing a 2.4% CAGR.
The presence of only three players in the market presents a major opportunity for new players to emerge and innovate in a highly concentrated market, especially considering its population and geographic size. Although a potential sale of TIM Brasil following Italy’s state-owned Poste Italiane proposal to acquire all of the Telecom Italia shares isn’t off the cards yet.
In 2025, Brazil saw a recovery in play with a boost in postpaid subscriptions in 2025, and S&P Global Market Intelligence forecasts that this trend will continue in the next seven years. Our models estimate a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.4% for total mobile subscriptions over the 2025-2032 time frame, driven by migration from prepaid to postpaid.
This growth implies a 102.7% penetration rate by the end of the period, indicating a more mature market where lower interconnection fees between different operators' networks mean consumers no longer need to own multiple lines for cheaper in-network calls.
In 2025 postpaid mobile share in Brazil grew to 58.1% of total subscriptions, not considering the machine-to-machine (M2M) base. These subscriptions grew by 7.4% compared to 2024, ending the year with 122.3 million accesses. That growth was partially offset by a 7.9% decrease in the prepaid base to 94.1 million subscriptions, thus leaving the combination of both types with a total of 216.5 million subscriptions, 0.2% more than the previous year.
More than a quarter (26.9%) of the total subscriptions were 5G, which grew by 45.4% in 2025 and ended the year with 58.1 million subs. The rapid growth of this technology compensated for 4G’s 10.1% decline, albeit the latter is still the predominant generation in the Latin American market with a 68.1% share of total subscriptions.
Driven by migration from prepaid to postpaid, total mobile service revenues grew by 4.3%, totaling $16.3 billion in 2025 compared to the previous year. Annual average revenue per user (ARPU) increased by 7.4%, reaching $6.28. In the same time period, inflation in Brazil was up 5%.
Infrastructure
Spectrum distribution in Brazil remained largely the same in 2025 as in the previous two years, with a total of 1,805 MHz in use for sub-6 GHz bands, implying 119,917 subscribers per MHz, but this will change in 2026. Regulator Agência Nacional de Telecomunicações (Anatel) is working on a 700 MHz band auction, with the possibility of also making portions of the 6 GHz band available.
Regional operator Ligga Telecomunicações SA sold its 3.5 GHz spectrum in the state of Paraná to Unifique Telecomunicações SA — a small operator focused on southern Brazil — for $3.6 million, citing lack of rentability in the 5G deployment and operation. The company sold its operation to Brasil TecPar for $ 95 million, and assuming an additional $191.3 million debt, after failing to pay $229.5 million in debentures. Ligga’s main investor, Nelson Tanure, is also involved in Banco Master’s corruption probe in Brazil.
Ligga also moved ahead with regulatory approval of the transfer of its 3.5 GHz band license in the Northern region and São Paulo state to the ISP group Consórcio Amazônia 5G. Both Unifique and Consórcio need to meet Ligga's original 2021 auction coverage commitments, which set a deadline for the end of 2026. Brisanet, another regional player with a 5G spectrum license, has been requesting more low-range spectrum to improve its return of investment in coverage, currently focusing on the fixed-wireless access (FWA) using 3.5 GHz and 2.4 GHz bands.
In total, Brazil had 80,128 towers by the end of 2025, a 1.8% increase compared to the previous year. The density was 2,701 subscriptions per tower, an annual improvement of 1.6%.
The most notable tower asset sale in 2025 was IHS Holding Ltd. selling its Brazilian (and Colombian) operation to Macquarie Asset Management Pty Ltd. for $685 million. The deal comprised of more than 8,500 towers in Brazil and 270 in Colombia, implying $78,197 per tower. IHS had previously sold its stake in I-Systems, a neutral fiber network operation that was originally a spinoff of Telecom Italia SpA's TIM Brasil Serviços e Participações SA's fiber infrastructure, to TIM Brasil itself.
American Tower, SBA Communications, Highline and IHS acquired Oi’s tower portfolio in a series of smaller transactions in 2024 and early 2025.