Picture This: US Inbound Shipping Activity Slows in January

What we know

US seaborne imports fell 5.5% year over year in January, marking the fifth straight monthly decline and matching the roughly 5.4% average drop in Q4 2025. While the burden from US import tariffs has declined, a year-over-year comparison reflects destocking processes. Consumer sectors outside of furniture remain weak.

Timing and one-off effects reduce the certainty of forecasts for the coming months. IEEPA duties could be removed by the Supreme Court, while the Lunar New Year holiday has its latest onset since 2015. The latter should lead to lower shipments in January versus December, yet they rose by 8.4% sequentially, indicating concerns regarding the stability of US-mainland China trade relations.

Shipping rates for North Asia to US east coast routes have returned to their late 2023 levels, indicating a mixture of expectations for reduced demand and improved capacity as carriers make a tentative return to the Red Sea.

The US manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index improved to 52.4 in January from 51.8 in December (over 50 indicates expansion). That included an improvement in the quantity of purchases, which reached 52.6 from 49.9 to reach the highest since June 2025. The increase came despite a dip in new export orders to 48.4 from 49.1 – the seventh straight month of decline – suggesting newly signed trade deals have yet to bolster output.

Consumer sentiment remains weak. While the University of Michigan’s preliminary February Consumer Sentiment Index inched up less than 1 point to 57.3 from January’s 56.4, essentially unchanged and still 20% below January 2025 levels.

Why it matters

The persistence of declining imports even as tariffs temporarily ease suggests the near-term downcycle is being driven by inventory normalization and weak end-demand, not just tariff shocks.

Category divergence indicates tariff timing and structure can still reshape trade flows unevenly, complicating planning for importers, retailers, and ports. Policy uncertainty and calendar effects increase the risk of misreading short-term swings in import data, raising the value of monitoring rates and lead indicators.

Falling freight rates and restored routing capacity imply less pricing power for carriers and a potentially more favorable cost environment for shippers—but also reinforce the signal of soft demand.

The hangover from tariff front-loading a year earlier combined with a weak consumer sentiment position supports the Market Intelligence forecast that US seaborne imports of container freight will likely decline in 2026 as a whole versus 2025.

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.