Novo’s obesity lead slips as Lilly surges and Wegovy patent battle heats up

Novo Nordisk A/S (CPH: NOVO-B) has filed a US patent lawsuit against telehealth group Hims & Hers Health Inc. (NYSE: HIMS) over the sale of compounded versions of its blockbuster weight-loss injection Wegovy.

Following the legal action, Novo’s shares rose 5%, while Hims & Hers sank 20%, highlighting the high stakes as cheaper alternatives begin to challenge the pricing power of the Danish drugmaker’s GLP-1 franchise.

Novo, despite pioneering the obesity drug boom, is no longer enjoying the unchallenged dominance it once had. Revenues from its diabetes and obesity care division, which accounts for 94% of group sales, grew 6.5% year-on-year in 2025 to $45.5 billion, a sharp slowdown from prior years. For the first time, that figure fell behind rival Eli Lilly and Co. (NYSE: LLY), which generated $48.2 billion from diabetes treatments.

Visible Alpha consensus forecasts suggest the pressure is only set to mount. Novo’s diabetes and obesity care revenues are expected to contract 11% year-on-year in 2026 to $41.1 billion, weighed down by efforts to push weight-loss drug prices lower in the US, intensifying competition, and the gradual loss of key patent protections.

Attempts to diversify beyond its core metabolic franchise have also proved difficult. Late last year, Novo announced that its oral version of Ozempic failed to slow Alzheimer’s progression in two large trials, ending hopes that the blockbuster could open up a major new therapeutic market.

Analysts now expect Novo’s total revenues to fall 9% in 2026 to $44.8 billion, reflecting the expected hit to its weight-loss business and a projected 2% decline in rare disease sales.

Eli Lilly, by contrast, is positioned for growth. Consensus estimates point to a 25.7% year-on-year jump in total revenues to $81.9 billion in 2026, with diabetes product revenues forecast to climb 28% to $61.7 billion, widening the gap in a market that is rapidly becoming more contested.

 This article was published by Visible Alpha, part of S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.