Seven key dividend forecasts for 2026

Abstract: S&P Global Market Intelligence Dividend Forecasting projects global aggregate dividends to grow by 2.9% in 2026, reaching US$2.47 trillion.  Macroeconomic uncertainties - trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts, continue to weigh on corporate earnings and, by extension, dividend growth.

S&P Global Market Intelligence Dividend Forecasting projects global aggregate dividends to grow by 2.9% in 2026, reaching US$2,471 billion. While this represents a significant deceleration compared with the 4.7% growth observed in 2025, it aligns with longer-term trends. Since the post-COVID-19 pandemic rebound, dividend growth has been moderating, reflecting a return to normalized levels of shareholder returns.

Macroeconomic uncertainties, including trade tensions, fluctuating interest rates, currency volatility and geopolitical conflicts, continue to weigh on corporate earnings and, by extension, dividend growth. The robust 4.7% payout growth in 2025 — far surpassing the initial forecast of 0.3% — was primarily driven by an unexpected surge in dividend payouts across Asia-Pacific. However, this pattern is unlikely to be replicated in 2026, and the moderating pace of dividend growth reflects broader market sentiment and economic conditions.

Continuing our annual series, we highlight seven key forecasts in the dividend landscape for institutional investors to monitor in the new year.

• S&P 500 dividends will surge by 6.4% in 2026, outpacing global growth of 2.9% and signaling US market strength.
• Europe’s outlook splits: Optimism in Italy and Spain, caution in France and Germany, and steady 3.8% growth for the UK.
• Developed Asia-Pacific faces flat payouts, with no uplift from Japan and Hong Kong, while Australia is bracing for a 10% contraction.
• Developing Asia-Pacific sees diverging trends: Mainland China’s dividends dip 3% on distribution timing shifts, Taiwan’s dividends slow to 8.6% with AI-driven gains, and India’s dividends rise by 7.3% on robust economic momentum.
• The materials sector is set for a breakout, powered by metal and gold miners' dividend growth.
• Marine transportation faces a more than 40% payout cut, but container, dry bulk and specialized carriers require a nuanced view.