BLOG — Dec. 10, 2025
Tariff Differentials Matter: Modest Dip in US Imports in November
Key findings
- US seaborne imports fell by just 3.2% year over year in November, helped by an improvement in shipments of auto parts as tariffs in that sector become a business-as-usual topic. There’s also been a slower than normal seasonal downturn versus October.
- Differential tariff rates have made a big difference to the performance of deliveries by origin. Shipments from mainland China fell by 17.2%, which may slow after the recent cut in IEEPA (fentanyl) rates. Shipments from ASEAN surged 21.9% higher in November, reflecting tactical reshoring for products not bought from mainland China. India’s shipments fell 18.7%, reflecting the continued elevated duty rate faced linked to its oil imports from Russia.
- Imports from the European Union, European Free Trade Association and UK improved by 10.8% year over year in November, marking a faster rate than October, reflecting lower tariff rates of 15% for the EU. The recent cut in Switzerland’s rate may drive faster growth in future. Further tariff reductions, including recent food duty exemptions, could continue to help mitigate the downturn in US imports into 2026.
US imports slowing rather than crashing
The fallout for US international trade data reporting from the recent government shutdown is continuing, with September data delayed to Dec. 11 compared to Nov. 5 a year earlier, while ongoing data is set to be reported later than normal through at least March 2025.
The delay increases the value of alternative data reporting sources such as Market Intelligence’s bill-of-lading data sets, which track physical trade flows. That’s proving particularly important as the fallout from the implementation of full IEEPA duties in August continues.
US seaborne imports of containerized freight fell by 3.2% year over year in November, Market Intelligence data shows, marking the third straight monthly downturn. That’s a slower rate than initially expected, which has been helped by a 3.9% improvement in automotive parts shipments as the impact on supply chains from Section 232 tariffs has normalized.
There’s also been a slower-than-normal seasonal downturn, with total imports in November up by 0.7% versus October on a days-adjusted basis. While similar to the 0.5% improvement in the same period a year earlier, that was much slower than the 3.8% sequential on average from 2015 to 2024.
Imports from mainland China underperform ASEAN, EU
Differential tariff rates under the IEEPA program appear to explain a large part of the spread in performance of imports by origin port-of-lading country. By extension, future changes in trade policy in 2026 — particularly widening exemptions such as those applied to food — may have a similar effect, particularly for imports from Central and South America.
US seaborne imports from mainland China and Hong Kong SAR fell by 17.2% year over year in October, extending the decline seen throughout 2025 so far. The adjustment of IEEPA (fentanyl) rates to 10% from 20%, as well as other exceptions may lead to a moderation in declines.
However, the total value of mainland China’s exports to the US fell by 25.1% in October and 29.0% in November, according to official Chinese figures, suggesting declines in average prices as Chinese firms look to maintain their market share.
The flipside of falling shipments from mainland China has been a pickup in growth in imports from the ASEAN region, which rose by 21.9% in November from a 4.4% rate in October. The region has been a center for both tactical and long-term reshoring strategies for consumer goods.
Imports from India have been falling at an accelerating rate, declining by 18.7% year over year in November after a 17.9% drop in October likely linked to the 50% tariff rate applied in relation to IEEPA and the country’s ongoing purchases of Russian oil. The latter may begin to slow, but there is little sign of a deal being done so far.
Shipments from the EU, European Free Trade Area and UK combined improved by 10.8% year over year, up from a 4.8% growth rate in October. Exporters in those regions are benefiting from a (still substantial) 15% tariff rate in the case of EU suppliers and 10% for those in the UK. Swiss exporters may see a pickup after a reduction in their tariff rate to 15% from 39%.
This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.