BLOG — Nov. 21, 2025
The Age of Agility: Key Themes for 2026
If 2025 was a year of seismic shifts, 2026 will be a year of recalibration to both the aftershocks and the new disruptions we expect to trade patterns, the economy and the geopolitical landscape.
We see three themes driving strategic recalibration across the 2026 global landscape: adapting to trade realities, shaky economic foundations and shifting asymmetric power in geopolitics. We identify aspects of each theme as critical for organizations seeking to convert risks into opportunities in a world where change is the only constant.
Adapting to Trade Realities
Uncertainty is the new certainty for global trade. Key developments over 2026 that will condition the evolving global trade landscape include US mid-term elections, the renegotiation of US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), closer trade alliances in Asia and among emerging markets, and new regulations in the EU.
US-oriented supply chains will continue to face tariffs and deal-related fluctuations, with the US administration set to continue using tariffs for foreign policy, as well as economic aims.
Elsewhere, the prospect for trade liberalization remains positive, although subdued global business expectations, as S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®) data indicates, would constrain the expansion of the manufacturing sector.
Supply chains have proven resilient in the face of an ever-lengthening list of challenges, including physical interruptions from conflicts and climate change, economic nationalism and the opportunities from longer-term investments in risk management and technology adaptation.
Shaky Economic Foundations
The elevated uncertainty that has weighed on recent economic performance — centered on but not confined to trade — is expected to contribute to another year of subdued global growth. Still, change creates opportunities, reflected in the rapidly evolving trade, technology and financial landscape.
The economic outlook for 2026 is characterized by a delicate balance between emerging tailwinds and persistent headwinds. Moderating inflation and looser fiscal policies in major economies will support growth. Elevated debt burdens and the specter of renewed inflationary pressures pose constraints on fiscal and monetary policy.
In this environment, we expect emerging markets and frontier economies will experience varied trajectories. Competition for foreign direct investment (FDI) will intensify.
We anticipate that interoperability between domestic payment systems, the development of a BRICS+ alternative to existing international payment arrangements and a wider adoption of stablecoins — digital currencies pegged to fiat currencies that provide price stability — will gain traction in 2026.
Shifting Asymmetric Power
Through 2026, we anticipate a global order increasingly defined by shifting asymmetries in geopolitical power relations among countries and other entities. Profound changes in technology, including AI, are driving these shifts, by forcing adaptations and changing the leverage available to all actors.
Strategic competition has already challenged longstanding conventions and asymmetric geopolitical power. Balance of influence is increasingly being shaped by — and shaping — the spheres of innovation, driving the accelerated cycles of technological advancement. These notably include the advent of generative AI and autonomous weapons systems.
The fragmented approaches to AI governance among the US, the EU, mainland China and emerging markets underscore the complexity and competition inherent in the race for technological leadership. Deployment of commercially available, cheap technology is also emerging as a key factor in conflict, making incursions easier to initiate.
This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.