Rising Prices Make Halloween Less of a Treat: US Economic Analysis

• Parents are likely screaming “gimme a break” this Halloween, as candy prices are up again this year. This means sales are expected to fall in real terms, as rising input costs continue to haunt candy makers.
• After moderating to 2.6% in 2024, candy prices are up a whopping 10.4% in 2025, and the cost of raw inputs — mostly cocoa — has continued to rise by double digits, forcing candy makers to offer more non-chocolate candies.
• In our forecast, current dollar spending on Halloween candy rises 3.8% to an all-time high of $4.2 billion in 2025. Rising inflation means real purchases of Halloween candy (i.e., volumes) are expected to fall 2.0% this year, and for the third time in four years.

Inflation is rising from the dead, particularly seen in the high cost of raw materials such as sugar and cocoa. Now, the specter of tariffs is adding to the inflationary brew. 

Combine that with recent trends, and it is clear why candy makers are increasingly concerned about keeping costs under wraps. First, the producer price index for the chocolate made from cacao is up 23.6% year over year, following a 55.1% increase in 2024. How? A string of unseasonably bad weather in the regions where cocoa beans are grown has continued to push prices up. The last two years have seen speculation about future crop yields, which has helped push the producer price index even higher, up almost 175% since 2019.

On the other hand, the producer price index for sugar manufacturing is down 6.3% from a year ago, driven by the lower cost of importing raw sugar. 

Second, labor costs continue to rise. Average hourly earnings for sugar and confectionery product manufacturing employees are up 4.2% year over year. While that represents a slowdown from the 13.5% jump seen in 2023 and the 5.0% rise in 2024, labor costs have more than recovered from an 8.1% decline in 2022 when rattled supply chains disrupted manufacturing. 

We expect current-dollar spending on Halloween candy to grow 3.8% in 2025 to a record $4.2 billion — nearly double what consumers spent on candy a decade ago. This comes out to about $31.80 per household, and while growth is expected to be close its pre-pandemic average, higher prices can be expected to take more than a fun-sized bite out of real sales this year.

In our forecast, there is no sugarcoating the fact that growth of current dollar spending on treats is expected to fall short of last year’s 4.4%. 

Through September, headline consumer price index prices are 3.0% higher, up from a 2.4% gain one year earlier, and earnings for all workers are 3.7% higher this year. As a result, consumers are again worried about shrinkflation when it comes to the size of their paydays.

October’s final reading on consumer sentiment was the lowest since April and May. While consumers are less panicked about inflation, they are increasingly concerned about job prospects. In such an environment, out-of-pocket items such as candy do okay, but big-ticket items — vehicles, homes, appliances, and 12-foot skeletons — can become deferred purchases. 

Another bout of higher prices means confectionery makers will continue to face shrinking margins, and combined with slowing sales, those price increases explain two trends consumers can expect to see when shopping this year.

First, the shift toward retailers offering more non-chocolate candies will continue, and second, seasonal sweets will appear on shelves even earlier. Both trends come as candy makers and retailers try to capitalize on solid demand for celebrating and shoppers’ renewed hunt for a good deal. The National Retail Federation expects a record percentage of people to engage in the festivities this year and reports that nearly half of those surveyed began shopping before October.

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.