Picture This: Northern Sea Route Charted as Alternative Trade Lane

What we know

The first container ship to reach Europe via the Northern Sea Route (NSR) left mainland China on Sept. 20 for Felixstowe, according to reports, marking a new era in a changing field of trade lanes. The ship is traveling to Europe in 18 days compared with the typical four- to eight-week journeys via the Suez Canal or the Cape of Good Hope.

The capacity of this route was covered by, on average, 3,000-twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU)-capacity container ships in 2024–25 as ships still need to be ice-strengthened. There are 141 of those ships in service with reinforced hulls and an average capacity of 1,800 TEUs. Most (1,588-TEU) ice-class container ships are classed to operate in Finnish waters with four being capable to traverse Polar waters.

Since 2024, 18 container ships — compared with 74 tankers — have crossed the Bering Sea in the north of Russia to or from mainland China, with ships journeying between mainland China’s Qingdao port and Russian ports of St. Petersburg or Kaliningrad, according to Market Intelligence data. The route is therefore just an extension of previous Russia-mainland China journeys.

Why this matters

The departure of the container ships via the Northern Sea Route has raised environmental concerns for nongovernmental organization Clean Arctic Alliance, which has long been advocating the ban of heavy-sulfur fuel in Arctic waters. With the fuel used not disclosed, the alliance wondered “whether it is aligned with the spirit of the IMO’s [International Maritime Organization] Arctic heavy fuel oil prohibition, which commenced in July 2024, but doesn’t take full effect till 2029.”

The environmental characteristics of shipping are becoming more important, with the maritime sector now part of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme and ahead of a key IMO vote on emissions.

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.