Lower US imports tightening truck capacity at key inland hubs

Outbound spot truckload capacity is tightening in several inland US markets, partly because of falling US imports, adding momentum to a seasonal increase in transactional truck rates as trucking's fall peak shipping period gets underway.

Tighter capacity may be short-lived, but spot rates could run higher than expected in the fourth quarter, especially if consumer demand strengthens over the holidays.

The average US dry-van truckload spot rate rose 3 cents in the week ended Oct. 4 to $1.70 per mile, according to DAT Freight & Analytics. That rate was 5 cents higher year over year.

In 13 Midwest states representing 46% of national load volume, spot rates were up 5 cents per mile on average. Carriers in those states earned an average of $1.92 per mile, which remained 22 cents above the national seven-day rolling average, DAT said.

Rates shot even higher in specific markets and port-dependent lanes, including some routes connecting Chicago, Las Vegas and Stockton, Calif., to major US seaports, as fewer trucks dropped off imports and searched for return loads, according to DAT.

Plenty of capacity was available in July to handle a 25.7% spike in US laden container imports from Asia as tariffs pushed importers to move peak season and holiday goods earlier than usual, according to PIERS, a Journal of Commerce sister product within S&P Global. But fewer imports now mean fewer trucks looking for return loads to ports.

While this may not be a major disruption, it is the first capacity dislocation of its type that shippers have seen since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

Capacity dislocated

Excess truck capacity isn’t necessarily exiting the market; it’s being diverted. This situation is forcing shippers in certain inland markets to push more freight to spot load boards.

Last week, the number of spot loads moved from Los Angeles to Las Vegas fell 11%, leading to a shortage of dry vans in Las Vegas, said DAT principal analyst Dean Croke.

“We’re seeing an imbalance in all those markets that need to get freight back to Los Angeles,” Croke told the Journal of Commerce. “This is due to the falloff of imports in LA.”

That imbalance led to a 45% surge in outbound load posts from Las Vegas as shippers scrambled to find capacity, Croke said. As of Thursday, the average broker rate from Las Vegas to Los Angeles jumped to $2.15 per mile, up from $1.96 per mile last month.

The impact was even starker in the high-volume lane connecting Los Angeles and Stockton. The average DAT spot rate from Stockton to Los Angeles rose to $2.45 per mile in the first three days of this week, up from $1.74 per mile for the month of September.

That increase marks a 33% leap from the average rate a year earlier, according to DAT’s data. As of Thursday, the average rate from Los Angeles to Stockton had climbed 7 cents from $2.99 per mile in September to $3.06 per mile in the last three days.

In Chicago, overall spot loads jumped 20% last week, Croke said. Outbound rates from Chicago rose 8 cents on average to $2.20 per mile last week, excluding fuel surcharges, 50 cents higher than the national average, according to DAT.

“Normally, markets tend to equalize, but I don’t know how long this will take before it balances out,” said Croke, adding that the freight fluctuations brought on by changing US tariffs “is unprecedented.”

US imports should be below 2 million TEUs for at least the next five months, according to the latest Global Port Tracker forecast from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates. That situation gives truck capacity at inland hubs months to find a new level.

This article was originally published in the Journal of Commerce on Oct. 10, 2025.