Broadcast Outlook 2025: Challenges, Opportunities Facing US TV, Radio Stations

The US radio industry is undergoing a bifurcation, with traditional spot ad revenue either flat or declining, while digital avenues such as podcasting, streaming, and connected device integration are driving growth. Radio's strengths include lower ad costs, a local audience, and a relatively high return on investment compared to other media, with digital investments offering future growth potential. However, the national and local spot ad markets are expected to decline over the forecast period.

Radio's smaller share of political ad revenue compared to TV makes it more dependent on core ad trends, with top-performing categories including investment/retirement, quick service restaurants, supermarkets, commercial banking and hospitals. Although traditional auto ad spending is challenged by high interest rates, service and parts advertising continue to be reliable revenue streams.

National radio spot ad revenue is projected to decline by 5.0% to $1.76 billion in 2025 and by 3.5% to $1.70 billion in 2026, eventually stabilizing at $1.48 billion by 2030. The core local spot ad market is expected to contract less, with a 4.0% decline to $7.66 billion in 2025, followed by smaller declines until it turns slightly positive, reaching $7.17 billion by 2030. Radio station owners are investing in streaming, podcasting and digital marketing services, with digital revenue anticipated to grow 6.5% in 2025 to $1.75 billion, continuing to increase to $2.31 billion by 2030. Off-air revenue, including live events, is also expected to grow, reaching $2.78 billion by 2030.

Despite alternatives like streaming and satellite radio, radio remains popular, offering opportunities for radio-personality-driven podcasts. S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan projects podcast ad revenue to grow by 22% in 2025, surpassing $1 billion. Some radio groups are shifting from cost cutting to investing in new talent and formats, though the competitive landscape and low entry barriers for digital personalities pose challenges.

Radio's enduring appeal lies in its local reach, trust and digital integration, which advertisers value despite increasing competition. As music becomes commoditized, radio personalities are crucial for audience engagement and attracting advertising dollars.

Challenges and opportunities facing US broadcast stations today

National advertising

National core ad trends across both TV and radio station owners are expected to have easier comps in the second half of 2025, albeit primarily from the crowd-out factor of political ads in 2024, without the benefit of the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics broadcasts for NBC and Telemundo affiliates. The return of NFL and college football games should help national ad sales, while headwinds include lower consumer sentiment and sluggish macro-economic conditions.

Political advertising

Political advertising, particularly during election cycles, remains a significant revenue source, with an estimated record $4.12 billion in 2024. Off-year political ad revenue is forecast at $937.1 million in 2025, led by the New York City mayoral race, with another substantial mid-term election year in 2026 expected to generate $3.77 billion.

During the five-year projection period from 2025 to 2030, political advertising is expected to be disproportionately allocated to local stations in swing-state markets and regions with higher projected population growth, such as Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas and Utah. These areas are anticipated to experience above-average increases in political ad spending. The forecast for TV stations accounts for the fluctuations between even/election and odd/non-election years, predicting another record-breaking $4.53 billion in the 2028 presidential election year.

Local advertising

Broadcasters continue to hold an advantage over their digital rivals, which is the ability to serve and build trust with communities, including through local news, weather and sports programming. Over-the-air households have been growing over the past decade as the traditional cable bundle becomes more expensive and more affordable streaming options raise their prices and include ad tiers. We expect local advertising on TV stations to deliver low single-digit growth in 2025, with small and midsized markets likely outperforming large markets and urban centers.

Based on our TV market-level ad projections, the top five fastest-growing TV markets by 2025–2030 CAGR are Phoenix (Prescott), Ariz., at 2.03%; Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne, Fla., at 2.02%; Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota), Fla., at 2.00%; Austin, Texas, at 1.99%; and Charlotte, NC, at 1.96%.

Over the past decade, radio advertising has shown resilience in local markets but faces structural challenges from digital disruption and evolving consumer habits. Radio's reliance on core ad trends, particularly in the auto and retail sectors, is heightened by its smaller share of political ad revenue compared to TV, leading to a shift in ad budgets towards digital platforms.

Based on our radio market-level ad projections, the top five fastest-growing radio markets by 2025–2030 CAGR are Daytona Beach, Fla., at 1.62%; Jacksonville, Fla., at 1.51%; Ft. Pierce-Stuart-Vero Beach, Fla., at 1.47%; Ft. Walton Beach-Destin, Fla., at 1.45%; and Austin, Texas, at 1.43%.

TV ratings

Based on Comscore Local Market audience data, TV station ratings have been flat to down so far in 2025, as consumers continue to shift from linear to streaming video platforms, although local news and live sports remain appointment viewing.

This year-over-year loss in viewership on a local TV station average basis tracks with the broadcast network national TV ratings based on Nielsen Holdings PLC data for the month of May. Paramount Skydance Corp.'s CBS still leads the Big Four with its sports-heavy programming, including media rights to the Masters and PGA Championship golfing majors and NCAA men's basketball tournament games.

On a positive note, broadcast still remains a core distribution partner for the National Football League Inc., although it is entering a season where more games are being streamed exclusively or simulcast on Amazon.com Inc.'s Prime Video, Alphabet Inc.'s YouTube LLC, Netflix Inc., NBCUniversal LLC's Peacock and new direct-to-consumer sports app launches from Walt Disney Co.'s ESPN and Fox Corp.'s Fox One.

Sports

Sports and broadcast have been linked since the beginning of radio and TV and have become even more vital for the broadcast business as audiences still tune in for the live games despite the multitude of alternative entertainment options.

Core ad revenue is expected to benefit from TV station owners securing over-the-air (OTA) live game sports rights deals, with major professional and college teams signing partnerships with companies over the past couple of years including Gray Media Inc., The E.W. Scripps Co., Nexstar Media Group Inc., Sinclair Inc., and TEGNA Inc. in the wake of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. shuttering all of its regional sports networks and Diamond Sports Group LLC going through Chapter 11 bankruptcy restructuring.

The value proposition to teams that TV stations offer is a broader reach with higher traditional multichannel penetration, virtual multichannel subscriber uplift and OTA households that do not subscribe to any pay TV packages. It also allows teams to launch their own DTC streaming product in the local market.

Retrans

US TV station gross retransmission and virtual subscription fee revenue is projected to reach $15.52 billion in 2025, up 0.8% from an estimated $15.39 billion in 2024. Over the projection period, there is a period of slow growth rates in the 1% to 4% range that is linked to dollar-per-sub rate increases in renewals, which offset an overall decline in pay TV subscribers, with gross retransmission and virtual subscription fee revenue projected to reach $17.50 billion by 2030.

On a net basis after deducting reverse retransmission payments back to the networks, station net retransmission and virtual subscriber revenue will decline 1% from $7.35 billion in 2024 to $7.27 billion in 2025, then increase 1% to $7.40 billion by the end of the projection period in 2030. This projection aligns with company guidance from major station owners expecting flat to declining performance in 2025 and 2026, followed by 1% to 3% net retransmission growth in the subsequent three-year renewal cycle.

Based on Kagan estimates, by 2028, the projected $16.54 billion in gross retransmission and virtual subscriber fee revenue will represent 40.1% of the $41.30 billion that we model multichannel operators will pay to basic cable networks and regional sports networks that year. This occurs despite the higher TV viewing share for the Big Four broadcast networks, highlighting the pricing power differential between broadcast and cable programming.

Based on Kagan's estimates, the overall average annual dollar per retrans per sub per month for Big Four owned-and-operated and affiliate stations — ABC, CBS, FOX and NBC — is expected to grow 7% to $4.83 in 2025 from $4.52 in 2024, while the overall average including all stations receiving retrans fees to grow 6%.

Technology

AI has made huge gains over the past couple of years and has impacted every industry, including broadcast. While AI was a big topic at the National Association of Broadcasters Show in Las Vegas this past April, the creative process is probably less impacted in the early stages of generative AI (GenAI) models and will have more influence when it comes to technologies around TV and film production, editing and delivery processes, and the advertising targeting and transactional workflows.

Another factor at play is NextGen TV, also known as ATSC 3.0, which at the end of 2024 was available to some 76% of US households. At the NAB show, GameLoop illustrated NextGen TV's interactive potential by enabling viewer engagement with game shows using remote controls, a feature that draws advertisers. In collaboration with Gray Media Inc. and Sinclair Broadcast Group LLC, GameLoop aims to expand to 55 US markets by year-end.

Sinclair, a major NextGen TV investor, currently provides 91 High Dynamic Range channels, 61 of which include Dolby Atmos audio, and has introduced HDR sports channels like T2 Tennis and Pickleball TV. Internationally, countries such as Germany and Brazil are advancing with NextGen TV, with Brazil planning its use for the 2026 World Cup. To further the shift to NextGen TV in the US, the NAB proposed a 2028 phaseout of ATSC 1.0 in major markets, facilitating increased spectrum for additional channels or datacasting. The NAB also suggested a two-phase transition to the FCC, aiming for a complete switch to ATSC 3.0 by February 2030.

Deal market

The US broadcast station deal market fell to a decade-low in 2024, with a total deal volume of $232.5 million, excluding station swaps and donations, down 58% from $548.5 million in 2023. The decline was sharpest for TV station deal volume, which fell 78% year over year to $77.0 million, while radio station sales declined by 33% to $155.5 million. This marked the third consecutive year of US TV and radio station deals totaling less than $1 billion combined.

Many industry professionals consider the current broadcast ownership caps outdated. Some rules decades old, predating the rise and unfettered reach of digital and social media companies — direct competitors for advertising and subscription dollars. Cracks in the old broadcast ownership rules are starting to form under the Trump and Republican-led administration with FCC Chair Brendan Carr's "Delete, Delete, Delete" NPRM.

The TV deal market has been quick to take advantage of the prospects of softening or outright removal of broadcast ownership caps, with a slew of station deals and mergers being announced in July and August, including the Gray Media Inc. and The E.W. Scripps Co. station swaps and Nexstar Media Group Inc.'s announced $6.2 billion deal for TEGNA Inc.

The 2024 radio deal market would have been even lower if not for Educational Media Foundation's Dec. 30 filing to purchase seven FM stations from Salem Media Group Inc. for $80.0 million, which Kagan valued at an average of $2.04 per population reach.