Steel Market: Trends and Projections for 2025 and Beyond

• We expect the steel market to remain weak for the rest of 2025, with a slight recovery projected for 2026.
• Prices in mainland China and other Asian markets are at historic lows, showing little sign of increase.
• European markets face soft demand, yet production cuts and protectionist measures are providing some price support.
• U.S. tariffs, particularly the Section 232 tariffs at 50%, have significantly impacted volumes and pricing, effectively pricing out competitors from several regions.
• Asian markets remain competitive to the US. With levels near $500, the US tariff laden price is about $750 per metric ton.
• The interplay between production cuts and demand fluctuations will continue to shape the market landscape moving forward. 

The steel industry is grappling with significant challenges, particularly in mainland China and other Asian markets, where prices are at historic lows. As we approach the end of 2025, the expectation is that these low prices will persist, with little to no increase on the horizon. 

In contrast, the U.S. market is experiencing high prices at near $850 per short ton although volume buys may come in lower. Our projections indicate a gradual easing to the low $800s by mid-2026. Meanwhile, European markets face a unique set of challenges, characterized by soft demand yet supported by production cuts and protective measures. Looming imposition of CBAM will boost 2026 levels.

Tariffs have played a pivotal role in shaping steel prices across different regions. In the U.S., the implementation of Section 232 tariffs at 50% has significantly impacted volumes, effectively pricing out competitors from Europe, Brazil, Mexico, and Canada, where prices hover around or above $600 per metric ton. This creates a challenging landscape for importers and domestic producers alike. 

Conversely, Asian markets remain competitive. Asian prices are near $500 per metric ton so tariff laden levels are around $750.

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.