Country Risk Month Ahead: September 2025

Our country risk experts provide insight into events that could impact the geopolitical landscape in September.

Guyana’s general election

Guyana will hold a general election on Sept. 1, in which President Irfaan Ali is running for reelection as the representative of the People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP-C). There are no publicly available formal election polls, but our in-country sources, local media and informal polls indicate that Ali maintains public support due to infrastructure investment and social spending funded by oil revenues and backing from Guyana’s main ethnic groups.

The main opposition parties — the People’s National Congress Reform (PNCR) led by Aubrey Norton and the Alliance for Change (AFC) led by Nigel Hughes — remain divided and have been unable to form a coalition to challenge the government due to leadership differences.

In the event of a PPP-C victory, broad policy continuity would be likely, including continued development of the oil sector. An opposition government (led by either the PNCR or the AFC) would also promote growth of the oil and gas and infrastructure sectors but would be more likely to review the terms of existing oil contracts, tighten environmental requirements and consider increasing oil royalties.

Jamaica’s general election

Jamaica will conduct a general election on Sept. 3 to fill all 63 seats in the House of Representatives. Incumbent Prime Minister Andrew Holness from the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) is seeking a third consecutive term. If the JLP wins, policy continuity is likely, focusing on economic growth, maintaining fiscal discipline, and prioritizing infrastructure improvements and efforts to control crime.

In contrast, the opposition People’s National Party (PNP) led by Mark Golding would be likely to push for welfare expansion and increased spending on healthcare, education and small business support. On crime and security, the PNP is more likely to push for investments in community policing, youth engagement and addressing “root causes” of crime.

The election polls anticipate a close contest.

Syria’s indirect parliamentary elections

Syria will hold indirect parliamentary elections for its People’s Assembly between Sept. 15 and Sept. 20, the first since the removal of then-President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024.

Of the 210 seats, President Ahmed al-Sharaa will directly appoint 70, with provincial subcommittees selecting 140. The People’s Assembly’s term will last 30 months, extendable if it approves this via constitutional amendment and after a presidential proposal.

Provincial representation will be based on estimated population count, although mass displacements are likely to generate unequal representation of minority groups.

The direct and indirect appointment of members of parliament (MPs) by Sharaa is likely to consolidate policymaking within the executive, and parliament will probably be configured to ensure the smooth passage of legislation, which is passed through simple majority voting.

EU lowers Russian oil price cap

The EU is set to replace the fixed US$60 price cap on Russian seaborne oil imports into the EU and the UK on Sept. 3, with a floating cap set at 15% below the average market price, initially at US$47.6.

Unlike the previous price cap agreed by G7 members, enforced since December 2022, this cap will be enforced solely by the EU and the UK. Market Intelligence estimates that 80% of Russian exports are being shipped to countries not applying the G7 countries’ oil price cap.

Since March 2025, given soft global energy market conditions, the average monthly prices for Russian crude have consistently fallen below the US$60 per barrel price cap level. This has allowed Russian crude oil exporters to use G7- linked shipping and insurance services in full compliance with EU regulations while selling their crude at market prices. G7-linked tankers lifted over 39% of Russia’s 3.36 million-b/d crude exports in June 2025, the highest since end-2023.

Under the revised cap, shadow fleet operators, which control sanctioned tankers, and non-sanctioned ships operating outside the price cap, are likely to have increased opportunities to haul Russian oil with the new EU cap driving Greek companies away from Russia.

US African Growth and Opportunity Act set to expire

The US’ African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which was first enacted in 2000 and has been a major component of legislation governing US trade with the African continent, will expire on Sept. 30. The agreement allows for duty-free access to the US for over 6,000 products from 32 African countries.

The countries that have historically benefited most from the agreement include South Africa, Kenya, Ghana, Madagascar and Lesotho. Under AGOA, South Africa has been exporting various brands of cars and car parts into the US, along with a range of mining products and citrus fruits. Kenya and Madagascar have benefited significantly through the duty-free exports of apparel, textiles and several agricultural products including coffee and cocoa, which is one of Ghana’s main US exports too.

Renewal of AGOA, especially in its current form, is unlikely. So far in bilateral trade negotiations, including with South Africa, US representatives have advised that they are developing a trade template that will apply to US trade with all African states. It is unclear when this will be finalized, and how it will apply.

Russia-Belarus’ Zapad military exercises

On Sept. 12–16, 2025, Belarus and Russia will conduct their Zapad-2025 (West-2025) joint strategic military exercises. Traditionally held every two years, the last Zapad exercise took place in 2021, before Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

The exercises will focus on air defense, defensive combat scenarios, repelling incursions, and tactical aviation support, and will be held on Belarusian territory and Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave. Belarus’ Defense Ministry in May announced a reduction in scope and a relocation of the main maneuvers from Belarus’ western border to central Belarus. According to official statements, the scaling down aims to demonstrate Belarus’ readiness for “de-escalation, dialogue and peace.”