Research — 18 July, 2025
Tariff tensions and dividend decisions: how trade policy is reshaping Europe?
By Pattie Zhang
Macro environment & Dividend relevance
- In 2025, rising US tariffs on automobiles, industrial goods, and select consumer products are reshaping global trade dynamics. These measures, reflecting a broader shift toward protectionism and decarbonization, are increasing pressure on European multinationals with US exposure.
- For investors, this underscores the importance of understanding tariff sensitivity – not just as a cost factor but as a key driver of earnings resilience and dividend stability.
- Companies facing higher US exposure and tariff risks may respond by adjusting capital allocation strategies, such as cutting dividends or favouring share buybacks, while those with local operations or strong pricing power are generally better positioned to defend dividend payouts.
Scope of analysis
- This report covers the current constituents of the EURO STOXX 50 (SX5E), EURO STOXX Select Dividend 30 (SD3E), and FTSE 100 (top 25 names by market cap) across seven major sectors:
Consumer discretionary, Consumer staples, Healthcare, Industrials, Information technology, Materials, and Utilities.
How to read the table
- Revenue generated in the US (%): the percentage of a company’s total revenue generated from the US market in 2024.
- Sensitivity to US tariff (High / Moderate / Low): a qualitative assessment that captures both direct and indirect impacts of tariffs. Considerations include each company’s business model, supply chain exposure, production footprint, mitigation strategies, pricing power, sectoral challenges, etc.
Detailed rationale and supporting data are available in the company-by- company comments throughout the report. - DPS revisions (YTD): the latest forecasts (as of mid-May 2025) are in bold.