The Decisive | Season 4 Ep.3 - Searching for Value Amid Uncertainty: A Sneak Peek at Inland 25

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Kristen Hallam:

You're listening to The Decisive Podcast. Insights and analysis to empower confident decision making. Welcome back to another episode of The Decisive Podcast brought to you by S&P Global Market Intelligence. I'm your host, Kristen Hallam. And today we're looking ahead to the Inland Distribution Conference organized by the Journal of Commerce, part of S&P Global. This conference will bring shippers, logistics companies, brokers and forwarders, warehousing and distribution companies, LTL and truckload carriers, and supply chain technology providers together in Chicago starting September 29th. And joining us from the Journal of Commerce to tell us more about what's on the agenda is Eric Johnson, Senior editor, Technology welcome back to The Decisive, Eric.

 

Eric Johnson:

Great to be back, Kristen. Thanks for having me.

 

Kristen Hallam:

Did I leave anyone off that long list of people coming to Inland?

 

Eric Johnson:

It's a motley crew. I think you— we might have missed Intermodal marketing companies, or IMCs as they're called. Intermodal companies, we'll call them that. And also drayage providers, which is the leg between, you know, the sort of short haul leg between ports and inland ports and sort of distribution centers. So yeah, it's a hopelessly complex set of different entities who all gather in Chicago at the same time, which is what makes it fun.

 

Kristen Hallam:

All right, well, I apologize to the IMCs and the drayage providers for leaving them off the list and look forward to a complex array of characters appearing at Inland this year. So we do have a lot of subscribers to the podcast who are primarily interested in economics or geopolitics, and maybe shipping, not so much. But why should they be interested in the Inland Distribution conference or Inland25 as it's known?

 

Eric Johnson:

Yeah, I think we have set a scene over the last, let's call it five to six years, a blurring of the sort of distinct silos of expertise around economic issues, geopolitics—you named those two—and then shipping and freight and logistics or freight transportation, which is the sort of industry that we write to and write about, just because the sort of blinders around whatever, whatever correlated or was caused by one thing or another are now, you know— have been taken away, right? Since the pandemic, there's the general population and that includes people who are, you know, fundamentally interested in economics or geopolitics, they all have a better sense of the logistics impacts, whether they're upstream or downstream of, of policy decisions and, you know, sort of economic disruptions on the whole.

So that's a long way of saying the freight industry or the freight market is somewhat of a bellwether for the economy. I think there's differing viewpoints about whether it's upstream or sort of concurrent with the rest of the economy. It's certainly not downstream. I think there's also—you could also argue about how far upstream it is. But it's certainly, you know, some people think what happens in the freight market ultimately, you know, is like a symptom, and it ultimately extends out to the broader economic environment and geopolitical decisions or issues that are happening impact things like supply and demand, which are endemic in the freight market. So, yeah, I think anyone who's sort of interested in, in the way, in covering economics because there's so much ahistorical stuff going on right now ought to be paying attention to what's going on in the area that we cover. I would of course say that because I'm very interested in the area that we cover, but I don't think that necessarily is a wrong position to take because I do think what's going on in the freight industry is really interesting and should be interesting to people who follow this, whether they're on the economic side or the geopolitical side of things.

 

Kristen Hallam:

Yeah, yeah, I hear you. I hear you. So kind of in keeping with that, the theme for this year's Inland Distribution Conference is searching for value amid uncertainty, which I feel like that could be the theme for everything in 2025. What does— but what does that mean in the context of Inland 25?

 

Eric Johnson:

You're not wrong. I think our whole, all of our lives are about searching for value amidst uncertainty. It's funny, you know, we have to come up with a theme for these events, right? Because, you know, people go to the website, they want to know what kind of the, the background context for the event is. And you know, we probably had to come up with this at some point in between January and March. And at that point we were just sort of coming to terms with how impactful the current administration was going to be on a whole bunch of things including imports, exports, the domestic economy. And so we, we needed a theme that meant something but was a little durable and wasn't going to be obsolete like a month after we opened registration for the event. So it— I think what we, why that theme is meaningful is because ultimately every event that we put on, we expect people to get value out of their attendance at the event.

It's not just a junket. It's not just a, a place like a reunion. It's meant to drive business value and if we're not doing that, we're not doing it, we're not doing these events. Right? And so we really thought, like, let's get back to the core of what we're trying to do with these events, which is bring people together in person in a way that they don't maybe get to in other parts of the year. And knowing that it was very unlikely that anything was going to be resolved from a trade policy or a broader economic perspective by the end of September, which is when the event is happening. So I think we picked a good theme because certainly the last five months have not been very certain for most people in our industry at least.

And then in the context of specifically around the things that we'll be discussing at the event, it's very difficult right now for shippers especially to navigate what's going on on the import and export side. Obviously with, with tariffs kind of moving in different directions almost every month, if not week, the economic picture is very difficult and seems to be trending down. So the demand side is also quite difficult to navigate. And then that has an impact on their service providers. Right?

So if you're a, if you're a major truckload carrier and you're trying to keep pricing up into a market where there's less volume potentially coming from abroad, there's less industrial sort of demand on the, you know, for manufacturers, and then you have less consumer demand because people are just sort of worried about the market, that's a difficult market to price into. But the interesting thing is it's a huge market. What goes for one company doesn't always apply to another company, much less the entire market. So there's still pockets for companies to be super successful in this, and it's definitely not a uniform kind of blow that everybody is facing right now. In some ways, it's like this is where you find where the really good operators are.

 

Kristen Hallam:

Now, you mentioned shifting demand there. And given some of the tumultuous changes we've seen in freight demand over the past five years, how can logistics managers effectively navigate the uncertainty that lies ahead in the 2020s?

 

Eric Johnson:

Yeah, it's been a interesting first half of this decade. One for the history books, if we're still reading history books a hundred years from now.

 

Kristen Hallam:

I hope so.

 

Eric Johnson:

Yeah, I hope so, too. It'll be implanted directly into our brain, I think, at that point. But, so the overarching thing that I keep hearing from, not so much directly from shippers and logistics managers directly, because I think a lot of them are, are cautious not to be too dramatic about the current scenario. And, and I think they have, they're oftentimes they're just so focused on getting through the next six months, they're not necessarily worried about 2030 as much as they would like to be. But what I hear from people who are trying to help those companies through the next five years is it's less about being able to identify what crazy circumstance is going to, you know, sort of present itself as a roadblock in your path and more about your internal ability to sort of weather whatever it is that comes at you. Right?

So that gets translated into words like agility and flexibility and resiliency and which are, you know, already done to death since the start of the pandemic. But I think functionally what that means for, for people who manage global supply chains and, and even domestic ones is you have to build a team that is sort of like emotionally durable and, and you know, kind of resilient not in the way that we talk about companies being resilient, but you have to be able to just sort of like get hit in the face metaphorically, and then wake up the next morning and start again and not, not have let that bother you. Right? Because this, it's part of the job. Right? One thing I always talk about is if everything in logistics was easy, there would be far fewer jobs in it. Right?

 

So if, you know, we, we, I hear on the technology side, which is the area that I'm in, you hear about things like autonomous supply chain and automation and AI obviously is taking over and, but the, you know, the reality is it's still a very people-driven business. And the reason it's people-driven is because it's, it, it takes problem solving sort of mentalities and so people who have that are drawn to this industry. If there's no problems to solve, if everything is autonomous, you don't really need as many people as we have in the industry. But I don't, I really don't see that going away because the complexity is, is really only getting, you know, increasingly difficult to manage.

 

Kristen Hallam:

Yeah. Yeah. And I do want to come back to technology. Obviously you're the senior editor for technology, so we will come back to that. But I wanted to talk a little bit more about how shippers are adapting their strategies in response to, you know, some of the factors that we, you mentioned earlier at the top of the podcast, like the economic picture and how that's impacting transportation pricing.

 

Eric Johnson:

Yep. Well, that's sort of a core issue at Inland every year is because we're, you know, the, the timing of the event is sort of in the final quarter before shippers sort of go out to bid with their four hire truckload carriers. Those shippers that are, you know, kind of relying on carriers and doing so on a, on an annual or, or two or three year basis even. So the timing of this is all about kind of understanding where the rate sort of picture is going to be going into ‘26. I think the temptation in— like if you strip out the context of where we are right now, the temptation for shippers would obviously be to put a ton of pressure on their carriers and service providers to give them really low cost rates. I think given that the environment right now is not without context, I think most shippers, at least ones we talk to, are very cognizant of making sure they have capacity when they need it, making sure they have partners who can provide that capacity when the market turns back in the carrier's favor, whenever that may be. And it may not even be for all of ‘26 at this point. But there is a recognition that as a shipper, your primary job is to make sure product is available to your customers, whether in an industrial or a, you know, consumer setting.

And if you are, if you are cutting, you know, a few percentage points off your rate, but you're not guaranteeing that you are getting that product to where it needs to be at a very specific time, you are, you can be undermining your business in the name of, you know, saving on transportation costs. So I just think most shippers, they have so much data available to them now, more than they've ever had. Rate indexes, technology, procurement technology, benchmarking tools, auction tools, they can do all sorts of exotic and creative things around procurement that they, you know, that they really couldn't do 10 years ago even. It's really now the onus is on who, who's going to give me the best service at the right rate, not necessarily the lowest rate. So I think that's how they're thinking about this, especially going into a time when their own demand picture is uncertain. Right. If you aren't sure that your, you know, your demand for your product is going to be through the roof, that's probably not the right time to put a ton of pressure on your service providers because some of them may not be there at the other end when demand recovers if there's too much pressure on them.

 

Kristen Hallam:

Now, the word complexity has come up a few times in Our conversation. I was wondering if you could elaborate a little bit on the complexities around the cross-border logistics between the U.S., Canada and Mexico, especially in light of recent trade policies and in light of the fact that next year is when we'll be renegotiating the USMCA trade agreement.

 

Eric Johnson:

Yeah, ‘26 is going to be a big year, I think. Well, I mean we, we sort of have a little prologue to that with the reciprocal tariffs on a bunch of products that are not covered by USMCA at this point. And obviously Canada has been in the crosshairs as of late July and early August with the administration. So you know, complexity on the transportation side, I think on the truckload side, let's focus on truckload and intermodal rail. The markets have been steadily becoming more sophisticated in the way that they view supply chains that are reliant on manufacturing in one of those two countries for a final delivery product being delivered into the US. That's been happening and we've seen that through this huge rise in cross border trade, especially with Mexico over the past few years. That topic, especially cross border trade with Mexico was a huge topic at Inland last year. It was mostly revolving around helping people understand, you know, what transportation networks look like in Mexico, how you sort of make them, coordinate them with the, with the US legs, what those border crossings look like in, in from an operational perspective. We even had a, one of our colleagues, an S&P expert in Mexico, talk about sort of the political climate and sort of ease of doing business, you know, kind of helping people who are new to that market understand how that market functions from a business perspective.

So it will definitely be a topic again this year. We have a very high-profile sort of first day session on cross border and where we are. You know, I think we have to be realistic and say, you know, August 25th through whenever the USMCA gets renegotiated and whatever it looks like and whatever it's called in 2026, there's going to be lots of twists and turns and I think it, it's really important for people not to get too emotionally high or low based on how they feel about those twists and turns and really just try to, like, think about what their investment looks like on a long term basis. Do you want to be in Mexico? Do you rely on Canada? Is that a long-term thing that you plan to do? If so, let the short term kind of machinations of, of what's going on, trade policy, kind of play, run their course and then you know, then you're in a position where you've made a long term kind of commitment to those trades and, and, and you're probably better off than kind of going against your decision every other week because of some, you know, tariff increase or tariff decrease or carve out for your industry or that sort of thing. But obviously we will be following the, the USMCA renegotiation very closely as well. Most of our colleagues, so.

 

Kristen Hallam:

Oh yes, yes. Much more to come on that for sure. And you've mentioned emotions a couple times too. I'm wondering if at Inland you're going to have like a little booth like Lucy used to have and the Peanuts cartoons, like: The psychiatrist is in. 5 cents.

 

Eric Johnson:

That's a fantastic idea. I think we may actually feel that. Kristen, we'll give you credit. I will say that a lot of industry events these days, I've been to quite a few, especially on the trade compliance and importer-exporter side and they have felt like group therapy sessions to a certain degree. So yeah, maybe we do need a professional psychiatrist at some point.

 

Kristen Hallam:

There you go. There you go. So now we come to the technology question, Eric. Yeah. You are the senior editor for technology, so. And the last time we had you on the podcast we were talking about AI and shipping actually. So wondering where technology is going to show up on the agenda for Inland 25.

 

Eric Johnson:

Yeah, so it's, it's an increasing, I feel like part of the program and, and I've been successful in lobbying my co-chairs Bill Cassidy and Ari Ashe and letting me do more and more programming around technology. It's funny because I feel like the technology speakers at Inland tend to have a view that the rest of the industry sort of sees as too far out ahead. But I eventually see the rest of the industry sort of catch up to their way of thinking, you know, one to two to three years later. So a lot of the topics that we would, we would have discussed at inland, let's say 23, are now coming to a head right now. And for instance, we have a session about how appointment scheduling, which seems like something, you know, this is scheduling appointments for trucks to show up at docks so that A, the warehouse knows it's there, B, they can staff it appropriately to receive and unload and, and then coordinate that truck's next move and that trailer's next move. Right? Seems like that would have been solved a long time ago. It hasn't.

And you know, we talked about that at the, you know, very edges of it, a couple years ago. And now we have a whole session about how technology is sort of changing that process. And that's because there's a whole group of software vendors that are tackling that single problem. So we have, we have sessions on that. We have sessions on—I sort of went with a gimmick a little bit for the program this year. We have time, space and money sessions around technology.

So there's the payment and factoring side of things, which is a huge and growing area of, of trucking. We have the space which is about how do you, how do I, as a shipper get the space I need and use technology to do that, which is a fundamental part of their job? And then the, the time, which is with the appointment scheduling thing, there's a session about automation, just in general, a potpourri session about automation. Because there's so much of the industry that's being impacted by agentic AI, AI focused technology providers that want to sort of help insert themselves into the workflows of service providers especially. So we're going to have kind of a really robust discussion about that. So, yeah, lots of tech discussion. So if you want to get ahead, I would definitely encourage you to attend those sessions. So I'm very excited about that.

 

Kristen Hallam:

Yeah. So what else are you excited about for Inland 25 or what are you most looking forward to?

 

Eric Johnson:

Well, I think from a, from a personal perspective, I'm always, I'm always thinking about the technology stuff. So I think getting a chance to have some people on stage that I've never had at Inland before, that we've never had at Inland before, and giving people a view of like how they view this market, which most of them have been in or come from the industry. So they can speak that language, but they also are coming at it now from this sort of neutral software perspective. Those conversations are really, for me, super fun to have. It's always good to hear from the shippers, honestly. The shippers are the customers. It's the only time of the year where they're always right.

Normally, you know, normally the transportation managers at these shippers, they just get beaten up all year long because they're not doing this right. They paid too much for that. A shipment, you know, was delayed and they're the ones who are getting blamed for it. This is the one time of year where everyone is kind of, wants to hear what the shipper has to say. So those conversations are always really interesting and just kind. I'm actually really curious. I've had obviously a million conversations about the tariffs and trade policy this year.

I'm very interested to hear what the domestic market in the US has to say about this because a lot of the people who come to Inland are downstream of the imports and exports or they may not be connected to it at all at least, or they may think they're not connected to it. So they have a very sort of domestic focused view of their transportation responsibilities. So I'm interested to see if they have a view on tariffs and trade policy, what that view is, and how that sort of dovetails with what their challenges are.

 

Kristen Hallam:

Well, it's time for us to wrap up our conversation. Any final thoughts for our listeners on Inland?

 

Eric Johnson:

Inland is honestly, it's my favorite event of the year because we're involved and it's sort of our party, so to speak, but it's definitely less chaotic and crazy than TPM, which is obviously our bigger event in Long Beach in the spring. So I really feel like I get, I get to talk to so many people and it's a little bit more of a relaxed environment, but still super valuable for myself and I think, I would hope, for everyone else. We've grown this event, you know, steadily over the last few years and I think that's a testament to people appreciating what we try to do in terms of building a conference and making sure the program is meaningful to them, but also providing them space to go and, and talk and, and think up new ways to do business with one another. So, yeah, I, if you've never been, I encourage you to, to register for me. It's the best return on investment you'll get all year and, and if you've been before, you know what it's all about. And so I hope I see you again in Chicago.

 

Kristen Hallam:

We will include a registration link in the description of the episode for people to check out. Sign up. I just went to my first TPM this year, so maybe next year I will go to Inland or maybe there's even still time for me this year. Who knows?

 

Eric Johnson:

I'll work on it. I know some people.

 

Kristen Hallam:

You know some people. Yeah. Yeah, it would be fun. I do love Chicago, but thank you so much, Eric, for taking the time to talk to us about Inland and kind of the big picture for shippers right now. Until next time, thank you for listening to the Decisive Podcast from S&P Global. Please subscribe and join us for next week's episode. Until then, stay curious and stay informed.