MediaTalk | Season 4 | Ep. 39 - Can Hockey Translate Olympic Gold into NHL Revenue Growth?

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Mike Reynolds: Hi, I'm Mike Reynolds, the senior reporter covering the media industry for S&P Global Market Intelligence tech, media, and telecom news team.
Welcome to "MediaTalk," a podcast hosted by S&P Global, where our news and research staff explore issues in the ever-changing media landscape. Today, we're going to talk some hockey. The '25/'26 season turned out to be a big year for the puck sport in the US. For the first time since Al Michaels exclaimed, "Do you believe in miracles?" — when the Americans beat the Soviet Union and then Finland in Lake Placid — the US players were adorned with gold medals. New Jersey Devils forward Jack Hughes scored for the US 1 minute and 41 seconds into overtime to top Canada, leading Team USA to the top of the medal stand. That thrilling victory at the Winter Games led to a subsequent surge in interest in the puck sport and viewership rises for national rights holders ESPN and TNT Sports. There were strong playoff deliveries too, as the Carolina Hurricanes raised Lord Stanley's Cup. As the '26, '27 season faced off on Sept. 29, there are a lot of new things to consider. Today, I'm joined by Mike Johnson, a Kagan analyst who covers sports and is a "MediaTalk" regular. How are we doing today, Mike?

Michael Johnson: Hey, Mike. Yeah, thanks for having me. I'm doing great. Hockey's really having a moment right now in the US. A lot of buzz, a lot of changes for this upcoming season, so it's going to be fun covering it all.

Reynolds: All right. Before we get into some of those developments, Mike, you live in Western New York.
The Buffalo Sabres ended a very long playoff drought.

Johnson: Yeah. Yeah, Mike, after I think it was 15 years without playoff hockey in Buffalo, and yeah, the energy was off the charts. KeyBank Center was rocking. And I think they had 18 straight sellouts to close the season. The opening series, too, against Boston was unreal — fans lining outside for watch parties and things like that in the snow. The arena was rocking, local businesses saw a huge boost as well, and merchandise sales were off the charts. So yeah, a lot of excitement. There has been, anyway, this two-month gap after football ends where the Sabres have already been out of it.

Reynolds: Yes, sure.

Johnson: People kind of looking around like, "All right, what's next?" But now that the Sabres are back, that fills that gap, and people are really looking forward to this season, for sure.

Reynolds: All right. I'm a New York Rangers fan. It was a tough year for the Blueshirts in '25/'26. They finished in last place in the Eastern Conference. Hopefully can rebound this season. All right. Let's go. Mike, you've written an extensive season preview. Can you give us some of the overview highlights, and then we'll delve into them as we go along?

Johnson: Yeah, absolutely, Mike. So yeah, this season's kind of loaded with storylines. First things first, we've got the expanded 84-game schedule this year. Means more divisional rivalries and an earlier start to the season than years past. We have the new CBA that's taken effect fresh for this year. There's different contract rules, revenue sharing tweaks. So a lot to cover there. We have the media rights are a big deal. Negotiations are coming up. And, with record viewership and a younger fan base, the league's kind of poised for a big payday in that regard. And then, we also have the local coverage evolving fast. We have centralized production this year. We have Amazon Prime Video stepping in for a few teams. And then, lastly, internationally, the NHL's reach is growing at a pretty fast pace, especially in Europe with new broadcast deals and regular season games in Germany and Finland this year. And then, behind all of that, we have expansion, things like that. So there's a lot of momentum and the league's never been more dynamic.

Reynolds: Okay. All right. As you mentioned, the new CBA, 84 games now. They get to play division rivals four times, adds an extra home game for each club. Revenue sharing. A lot of stuff here on the CBA front. As media guys, Mike, let's talk a little bit about last season and viewership was really strong.

Johnson: Yeah, exactly. Last season the NHL posted its best regular season TV numbers in, I think it was 14 years. Games averaged just under 550,000 viewers across ESPN, ABC, TNT, TruTV. And I think that was up 23% year over year. Some big numbers there. ABC hit 1.1 million per game. ESPN was up 48%. TNT had its best Sunday package ever. The Olympics and the Four Nations Face-Off gave hockey a pretty big boost as well. And then you also saw upticks in women's viewership as well. So yeah, big numbers as far as the regular season goes, and that just continued into the postseason as well. ESPN saw its best first and second round since regaining the rights. I think it was the Western Conference Final where Vegas swept Colorado. It averaged 2.2 million viewers, which was up 44% from the prior year. TNT Sports set records too. In the Eastern Conference Final, I think it was averaging around 2 million viewers, up close to 50%. And then overall, the playoff coverage on TNT, it averaged just under 1.5 million viewers per game.

Reynolds: Yeah, it was just banner for both sides, and then the Stanley Cup Final turned out to be the best in a number of years as well, right?

Johnson: Yeah, exactly. The Hurricanes over Vegas — not necessarily the biggest markets as far as hockey goes — but ABC drew over 5.2 million viewers, I think. The most watched since 2019. And so it was up big from the previous year as well.

Reynolds: Gotcha. Mike, gotcha. All right. So as we head into this season, what's the national TV picture like in terms of games?

Johnson: Yeah. So current media rights deals with ESPN, TNT run through 2028. So two more seasons under the current landscape. Exclusive negotiations expected to start next year.
League execs are optimistic. Viewership, like we mentioned, at record highs. The fan base is progressively getting a little bit younger and a little bit more diverse. And the current partnerships are strong, so we'll see what kind of negotiations take place there. The league tripled its annual rights fees during the last cycle. And then with the new Canadian deal, which we'll probably touch on as well, they're also looking for another big jump. Could potentially almost double from the current rights agreements.

Reynolds: It's interesting too, Mike, in the sense that the NFL was supposed to reopen and do its deals, and that's got put on hold. If that continues, this probably gives the NHL a good chance to have the negotiating rights be more favorable than what we've already talked about would suggest that they're going to be.

Johnson: Yeah, exactly. I was just going to mention that. So the NFL rights are just right around the corner too. So there's definitely going to be some competition for capital as far as that goes. Like you mentioned, if they push it a little bit further, NHL could probably sneak in there first and lock up their agreements beforehand. But yeah, the NHL's momentum is pretty undeniable right now, and while there might be some competition for those resources, they're definitely going to expect to see a bigger jump.

Reynolds: So that's the TV. What about, again, as a healthy league, expansion may be on the horizon, more teams coming into the league?

Johnson: Yeah, this was a surprising development this off-season to see how it gained steam leading up to this year. So yeah, it's a hot topic. Looking to add potentially a 33rd, 34th team in the future. We'll see how it goes. I believe they're exploring in Houston, Texas is the leading candidate currently. I believe there's been reports of a $2 billion expansion fee, or $3.5 billion total investment, including a new arena in Houston. So that's been reported. They're slow playing the process a bit. They definitely have some time here. I believe Austin, Texas is also being evaluated. So Houston's the front runner. Atlanta's also making moves with rezoning for a potential new arena, getting the city in the mix as well. And then I know Phoenix has been thrown around as well as a potential option here down the line.

Reynolds: Both in the case of Atlanta and certainly more recently with Phoenix, that would mark returns to leagues to those two markets. So that would be interesting as well. Certainly Houston and Austin, so let's see where they go. Looks like there's a lot of interest, and again, that speaks to the league's popularity at this time if you're looking to add a couple more clubs.

Johnson: Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. And hockey in the Sun Belt region is booming recently. I think teams from those areas have won six of the last seven cups. So it's definitely popular down in those regions, and it's just a sign of hockey's growth and the non-traditional markets.

Reynolds: How about locally? There has been so many things going on, but again, the overview here, Mike, is Main Street Sports, it was the largest operator of regional sports network. Some financial problems ended their live game coverage with hockey's first round this past season. There were seven NHL teams that had rights deals with Main Street last year. Three of them accounted for pretty much at this juncture. The Nashville Predators signed a multi-year deal with Scripps Sports for coverage on different stations. That's Scripps' fifth NHL team. The Red Wings are part of the Detroit Sports Network that Major League Baseball established and is home to MLB's Detroit Tigers, and the LA Kings games are going to run on the MLB's Los Angeles Angels regional network. But Mike, that's just the tip of the iceberg. There's so many other things.

Johnson: Yeah. Yeah. You're right. Yeah, the local coverage has been evolving for a while now. But over this off-season, like you mentioned, it's been changing pretty quickly, especially after the Main Street shut down after the first round of the playoffs last year. It left teams like the Hurricanes, Blue Jackets, Minnesota Wild, St. Louis Blues needing new broadcast homes in a pretty quick fashion here. The league itself kind of stepped in with more of a centralized production and distribution model. It means NHL Local is now handling the actual game broadcast for those clubs that I just mentioned. Distribution-wise, there's a lot of variety now, like you mentioned. For those four teams in particular, games will be made available on their own platforms, like the Blues on Blue Note Plus.

Reynolds: I like the Blue Note. I like Blue Note very much. It's a good name.

Johnson: Yep. Yep. And also on cable through partners like Charter Spectrum and streaming via Amazon Prime. For those four teams as well, fans can subscribe to their games on Prime Video even if they're not Prime members. And then you'll have DirecTV and other cable partners are expected to be added soon as well for even more distribution. And then you also have the Stars and the Ducks who were previously with Victory Plus. They've gone all in on streaming. Every local game is included free with a Prime subscription, and both teams will have a handful of games available over-the-air as well, I believe.

Reynolds: Yeah, there's no shortage of stuff, and DAZN has also become a major player here, right?

Johnson: Yeah. Yeah, exactly. So the Kings have gone with DAZN for exclusive local streaming. DAZN also took over the streaming home for MSG and YES Networks, so the local games for the Rangers, Islanders, Devils, and Sabres will be available on that platform.

Reynolds: All right. The other thing here, you mentioned there's more distribution to come. Fubo is on board with the four teams — the Blues, the Blue Jackets, the Wild, and the Hurricanes — and as you mentioned, DirecTV is likely to do that as well, and I would assume Comcast will also be part of that mix. Anyway, I thought it was interesting, Mike, the article you put together.
You cited some findings from Kagan's Insight Survey. Can you give me a little bit top line stuff there?

Johnson: Yeah, so the latest Kagan survey was done first quarter 2026. It's showing 19% of Americans watch NHL hockey. That was up 2% from last year. I believe it was 17% in their survey findings.
That still ranks behind the three other major sports...

Reynolds: The big three. Yep.

Johnson: …NFL, MLB and NBA. And fans are mostly men at 63% with 45% over 55, and only 20% aged 18 to 34. The Olympics and shows like — I believe the big one was Heated Rivalry over the last couple years — brought in some new viewers, especially younger and female fans. The core audience is still older, and access issues like blackouts and streaming costs and fragmentation are still a concern for some.

Reynolds: Yeah, it's interesting. Again, maybe it's just 'cause I'm very old now, Mike. My perception was that the hockey fan was always a little bit younger 'cause they always touted their tech savviness, but I guess that's a long time gone by now. But anyway. Yeah. All right. We've talked about national and local rights here in the States, but hockey's got a lot of players from abroad, so let's take a look at a little bit on as the NHL has expanded its global reach, if you could.

Johnson: Yeah. Yeah, exactly. So this is a big one. So the NHL is definitely expanding its global footprint pretty fast, the new 12-year Canadian deal with Rogers Communications more than doubles the broadcast revenue and brings in comprehensive coverage. That's taking effect this year. Then you had TVA Sports renewing its French language rights as well over this past offseason. You have Amazon Prime now streaming weekly games in Canada. And then in Europe too, you had Disney+ sign a five-year deal to stream NHL games in Sweden and Finland. I believe it was 160 regular season games and 50 even in Nordics prime time.

Reynolds: Okay. Yep.

Johnson: And then, you know — we also have the global series as well, bringing regular season games to Finland and Germany, like I mentioned previously.
And also new this year, the All-Star game is getting an international makeover with players representing US, Canada, Sweden, Finland, and a world squad as well. So it's definitely broadening globally for sure.

Reynolds: Yeah, that makes sense, right? The Olympics, they had a competition the year, a couple years early that also did very well. So that makes sense to capitalize on where your players and the fans from all over the globe, so good on them that way. All right. We've been talking about screens, but a lot of people are going to watch these games. As you mentioned up in Western New York, the Sabres sold out 15 or 16 games in a row. But overall, the league's done great with people coming to watch the games in person.

Johnson: Yeah, absolutely. Attendance is at an all-time high, basically. Last year 23.16 million showed up for live games. I think it was actually 98.5% of the seats were filled after the Olympics, so it definitely took that Olympics boost. And I think 13 clubs were at full capacity over that time period. March was the busiest month ever according to the NHL. And like you mentioned, you had the Sabres, Hurricanes, and others selling out pretty much every game to close out the year. In recent years, you've had teams invest in arena upgrades and fan experiences and new lounges, grab-and-go markets, things like that. So you're seeing a lot more people coming out to these games and experiencing it live.

Reynolds: And also all the folks that are in the watch parties that you alluded to. So if you can't get into the building, you want to stand next to the building and watch the game on big screens, it's a fun thing to do as well.

Johnson: Absolutely. Yep.

Reynolds: All right, Mike, we're getting to the end here. Can you give us a sense for where the NHL stands overall from a revenue perspective?

Johnson: Yeah. The numbers are pretty impressive, like in recent years. Revenue is projected between, I think it's $7.5 billion to $8 billion for the 2025, 2026 fiscal year, up from roughly $6.5 billion from the prior year.
You'll have things like the new Canadian media rights deal kick in this season, like I mentioned. And then you have the US media rights negotiations coming up. So it won't be surprising if we eventually see within the next five to 10 years, revenues reach the double digits in the billions, so —

Reynolds: Sure

Johnson: Things are definitely looking up there.

Reynolds: All right. There was one interesting thing you wrote in your article, something called Future Sports helping teams with financial indexes?

Johnson: Yeah. So the NHL partnered with Future Sports to launch team performance indexes for futures contract trading. I think it's powered by the CME Group. But they were the first major sport in the US to partner with them. And it lets fans and investors trade contracts based on team metrics, opening it all up for new engagement, revenue streams, things like that. I won't be surprised if you'll see other major leagues partner with them in the future as well. So it seems like something that will gain steam here in the next couple of years.

Reynolds: All right. Finally, let's talk about the commissioner. We'll start with baseball first. Rob Manfred is set to retire in January 29. Before that, he hosts a host of challenges, opportunities with potential CBA work stoppages, new centralization of local team rights, new national contracts.
NHL, as you mentioned, there's a lot of pucks in the air. What's up with Commissioner Gary Bettman?

Johnson: Yeah. So from all the reports recently, there's no formal plan yet, and nothing imminent as far as him stepping down. He just turned 75. He's been the commissioner now for over 30 years, I believe — Wow, okay
Which is wild to think about. The league is making moves behind the scenes recently. I think they consolidated executive roles to help streamline operations behind the scenes. So we'll see how it goes. Nothing imminent currently, but like you said, there's a lot of different storylines going on.
So it'll be interesting to see how everything takes shape here in the next few years.

Reynolds: All right. That concludes this episode of "MediaTalk." I had a good time, Mike, talking with you about the puck sport and hearing about where the NHL stands on many fronts and in the years to come. Thanks for being with us again, Mike.

Johnson: Thanks, Mike.

Reynolds: All right. And thanks to all of you for listening on CapIQ Pro, Spotify, and Apple. As I mentioned, you can check out Mike's preview more in depth in our conversation here on CapIQ Pro. And this is Mike Reynolds. We'll catch up soon on the next edition of "MediaTalk."