Listen: MediaTalk | Season 3 | Ep. 6 - Can The NFL's Biggest Game Get Even Bigger?

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Mike Reynolds: Hi, I'm Mike Reynolds, a senior reporter covering the media industry with S&P Global Market Intelligence Tech Media and Telecom News Team. Welcome to “MediaTalk,” a podcast hosted by S&P Global, where the news and research staff explore issues in the ever-evolving media landscape. Today, I'm joined by a trio of S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan analysts: Justin Nielson, who specializes in many things, notably broadcast; Scott Robson, who tracks developments with major programmers and cable networks; and Michael Johnson, also known as MJ, who writes about the US sports market and its increasing transition to streaming. With the Kansas City Chiefs looking to become the first team to three-peat in the Super Bowl era versus the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, Feb. 9, we're going to talk many things football.

Before we get to the NFL and its championship game, though, let's recap the inaugural season of the expanded 12-team college football playoff. Mike, in “MediaTalk”'s college football preview last August, you picked Georgia to wear the crown, but the Bulldogs were leashed by Notre Dame in the quarterfinals. You recently wrote about the freshman year of the expanded CFP before Ohio State won the crown over Notre Dame. Your assessment of its first season?

Mike Johnson: Thanks for having me on. Yeah, the Georgia prediction didn't pan out. I think overall, I'd say the first year of the college football playoff was a success. The games drummed up a lot of buzz, and Ohio State's run of beating Tennessee, Oregon, Texas, and Notre Dame was definitely deserving of a championship. So I will say, though, with that being said, it still felt like I heard as much about potential changes in the future as I did for the games themselves. So I think we can expect some changes in the future regarding scheduling, seeding, things like that. But overall, I thought it was great for the sport in the first year.

Reynolds: Scott, you picked Oregon. They were number one for most of the season, came out flat against Ohio State. Not so interested in your thoughts about that game unless you want to weigh in, but again, your sensibilities for what the first expanded CFP season brought to us.

Scott Robson: I enjoyed the expanded playoff this year. More football is always a good thing. I picked Oregon but was rooting for Texas. And in the end, Ohio State just proved to be the better team. I think overall, the new playoff system was a success, but they might want to rethink the seedings in the coming years. It's also tough to have games going on alongside the NFL, which happened on Dec. 21. There were three first-round games of college playoffs and two NFL games, one of which was the Steelers vs. Ravens. All three of those first-round college matchups were decided by two touchdowns or more. So not really must-see TV. So maybe something changes in coming years with that.

Reynolds: All right, Justin. You're an Arizona State alumni. The Sun Devils were a non-call targeting penalty and a long fourth-down completion away from beating Texas and advancing to the semifinals. Your view of the seedings and the season.

Justin Nielson: Yeah, thanks, Mike, for reminding me again, but it was kind of a crushing loss. They had an amazing season far exceeding expectations and hopeful for the next season for my Sun Devils, but yeah, I think it was great. The games notwithstanding some of the blowouts, I think the games were competitive. As Scott pointed out, the seeding could be redone. But college football is a great sport, and more college football is great for the fans.

Reynolds: Yeah, I agree. As you guys have mentioned, maybe going up against the NFL a couple of times probably leaked some viewers there, but overall, it was a great run, and hey, it's the first time. There's always some kinks to work out when you do something for the first go-round, so we'll see. Let's move on to the NFL audience-wise, strong viewership. Regular season games averaged 17.5 million viewers. Down two%age points from the prior season. Scott, can you speak to the NFL's 2024-25 regular season delivery?

Robson: Yeah. So as you mentioned, overall, NFL viewership was down slightly this season, but it still attracts a massive audience, which is pretty rare in today's media landscape. The Sunday afternoon games and Monday Night Football experienced small viewership declines, but nothing really that significant. Meanwhile, Sunday Night Football, Thursday Night Football showed growth. I don't think the 2% decline is really indicative of lessening NFL popularity. It's just rather more of a natural ebb and flow from season to season. The NFL accounted for 72 of the 100 most-watched broadcasts in 2024. Which of course includes the Super Bowl as the most-watched show on an annual basis. The Thanksgiving games had massive audiences, again with the Lions and the Bears on CBS at 37 and a half million. And then you had ESPN tout that the divisional round game between the Chiefs and the Texans was the most watched in the network's history with 33.8 million. So certainly a healthy appetite out there for the NFL.

Reynolds: And the league is also moving from linear a bit more to streaming. MJ, can you talk a little bit about what was Prime Video's third campaign as the primary Thursday night rights holder?

Johnson: Yeah, it was another year of significant growth for Amazon's Thursday Night Football. This season saw Amazon's average per game audience reach over 13 million viewers up from last year's, I think it was 11.8 million. And while those figures fall short of previous Thursday Night Football games that were showcased on Fox and NFL Network, I think they averaged around 16 million on those networks. It's still showing that Amazon is making some positive strides year after year. And something that intrigues me too about Amazon's coverage basically because I'm a football nerd is their use of AI and advanced technology throughout the broadcast. They're showing things like defensive alerts with the red orbs or the primary targets on offense. So it's something unique that kind of separates themselves from other broadcasts.

Reynolds: Yeah, some cool stuff they got going on there. Justin, Netflix got in the game with two contests on Christmas. Four playoff teams were involved. Ravens, Steelers, Chiefs, and Houston. Neither game was particularly compelling on the field. Your thoughts about Netflix's first go-round.

Nielson: It was a success for Netflix. Given the challenges that they had in the Mike Tyson and Jake Paul fight with some of the streaming, it seemed to go pretty well in terms of the experience for fans. I was switching back and forth between the NBA games because Christmas is traditionally an NBA showcase.

Reynolds: LeBron and Adam Silverwood. Yeah.

Nielson: Yeah. But Beyoncé's halftime performance and having football on Christmas is definitely, I think it's something that's going to be happening for a long time.

Reynolds: I think that they've got a contract that goes at least a couple more years, as he gets for one game, and maybe Amazon rolls in on Christmas going forward too. We'll see. Playoffs on the field have not been the most competitive, nine of the twelve games in turn sustained audience erosion. All six NFC playoff games were down, and that followed Fox's lowest regular season viewership in four years. Again, granted, this is still the highest thing in TV. Any sense, MJ, why we've got a little bit of a downturn on Fox?

Johnson: Yeah. Like you mentioned, Fox was all of their NFL coverage is down 3% this year. Its late Sunday afternoon game of the week coverage. It still led all league broadcast windows averaging over 23 million viewers, but it was also down 3% throughout the year. I guess there's a couple of a number of different things that kind of played into that. The Cowboys and the Giants being out of contention early and then basically the lack of star power among NFC quarterbacks definitely hurt Fox's window throughout the year. You had quarterbacks leading the way such as Jared Goff, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield leading their teams compared to the AFC or with Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson as well. That definitely played a part.

Reynolds: No, they need Jade and Daniels to continue to grow. So we'll see where that goes. Is there a Justin, we talked about this before we get started here. Football fatigue, too many Taylor Swift sightings. Any sense of that?

Nielson: I don't know about that, but there's definitely more fragmentation in terms of viewership. So I think being spread across different platforms also just the other viewing options out there for streaming sports fans and the casual fans are shifting away in certain cases, dependent upon the popularity of the game.

Reynolds: All right, Scott. Tom Brady's first year in the booth. Some would say it was a learning experience. Others would say he's pretty mediocre. Your thought on the NFL's all-time on-field GOAT's performance and his rookie run in the broadcast booth.

Robson: Yeah. So Tom Brady took some heat in the first few weeks of the season, especially on social media platforms with fans complaining. But I think he started to find his broadcaster voice along the way and was providing some great insights towards the end of the season and into the playoffs. I think he's an extremely hard worker and will continue to improve. His biggest stage will come at the Super Bowl this year with Fox having the rights. Yeah, I know some people out there would rather see Greg Olson in the seat. Fox, they have to go with Brady for the Super Bowl. They're already paying him $375 million over 10 years.

Reynolds: Yeah, as long as he's going to want to do it. I would imagine he's going to be the lead voice. So let's get into the game itself now. Super Bowl 59 Kansas City and Philly, a rematch. Super Bowl 23, Chiefs edge Eagles 38-35 a Kagan Consumer Insights survey this past fall found that the Chiefs were the respondents' favorite NFL team, while the Eagles ranked seventh. How excited are you for this matchup? Scott, you're first behind center.

Robson: Yeah, first off, let me come clean and say that at the beginning of the season, I predicted the Jets to make the Super Bowl, which was very far off, as they didn't even make the playoffs. As for this matchup between the Eagles and the Chiefs, I think that the two best teams are facing off, and that's really what the Super Bowl is all about. So I can't really complain about this matchup. It's always exciting to witness history. So if the Chiefs pull off the three-peat, it will be a cool moment. I think if the game is as close as it was in 2023, then we're in for a great one.

Reynolds: Justin, an audible here. Are you happy with the matchup?

Nielson: It's definitely two fan bases I'd rather not be part of, but I would say, from the Eagles' standpoint, they better be way ahead in the fourth quarter because Mahomes is seven for seven in terms of late-game heroics. If the Chiefs have a window, they're going to win the game. MJ, would you have preferred another matchup?

Johnson: Yeah, I'm not terribly excited for this matchup, but I'll definitely be watching. I would have preferred my Vikings or the hometown Bills here in Western New York to reach the big game, but there's always next year, as they say. I will say that I'm pulling slightly for the Eagles to win just because their head coach, Nick Sirianni, went to the same school that my kids currently go to. At least there's some excitement surrounding that.

Reynolds: A little bit of a hometown advantage that way, for sure. Alright, me, I'm missing that the Detroit Lions weren't in there. Would have been their first championship since 1957. On the other hand, I'm happy that the Baltimore Ravens aren't playing. Alright, moving on to advertising. Fox boss Lachlan Murdoch told us on the company's earnings call in early November 2024 that the in-game inventory was sold out. Mike, you just wrote a Super Bowl story. Can you talk about advertising in the big game?

Johnson: Yeah, so we took an in-depth look at the advertising economics surrounding this year's Super Bowl compared to previous years. So the Super Bowl, it draws more than 100 million viewers each year. In 2023, when Fox last broadcast the game, the network reported nearly $600 million in advertising revenue from the event. And a recent report also indicated that Fox completely sold out of its ad spots with some selling for up to $8 million each this Super Bowl. Last season, CBS Sports’ coverage achieved the highest viewership ever for a telecast for a Super Bowl. I think they averaged over 123 million viewers across all platforms. So it's a figure that Fox will hope to replicate this year. If viewership numbers keep breaking records, it'll likely lead to a new surge in ad costs going forward.

Reynolds: Scott, given that the price is right, the price is up, does Fox set a new game day record, so to speak, for ad sales and revenue?

Robson: Yes. I think so. I've read that Fox is on track to generate nearly $700 million this year. With prices continuing to rise and the number of channels being utilized with Tubi and Fox Deportes in the mix, I think we'll see another record this year. Around 85% of the inventory was sold during the upfront window. So there didn't seem to be a lack of interest from advertisers. And then more importantly, with that, 10 advertisers who bought spots during the upfront dropped out this year, which allowed Fox to resell those spots at higher prices. So that should help boost overall sales.

Reynolds: Yeah. And it would seem that there were no shortage of those interested in getting in at the higher rate. Justin, are you among those who pay close attention to the ads or during the breaks maybe you run, get another soda or a glass of water or the like?

Nielson: I enjoy the ads. I think it's going to be interesting this year because we've got some returning advertisers that are making a huge impact. AB InBev with Bud Light and Budweiser and the Clydesdales. So that's back to tradition, I guess you would say. Less crypto ads is always good. So that's my perspective.

Reynolds: Yeah, from what I've read, too, I think there are fewer auto advertisers, which I guess is surprising, but, as we said, no shortage of interested parties, so we'll see. Another one for you, Justin. You have your Arizona ties. Are you watching the Waste Management Phoenix Open on CBS in lieu of some of the pregame fair?

Nielson: I believe so. I'm a huge fan of the Phoenix Open as a Phoenician. I've been to the event multiple times back in the day and always a great event to attend, especially the raucous crowd and just the pandemonium that's not typical in a golf event.

Reynolds: Scott, how about you? You're a golf guy. Are you checking out the pandemonium that is often the par three 16th hole.

Robson: Yeah. The Waste Management tournament always brings out some viral moments, especially from that 16th hole. I've never been in person and feel like I'm too old now to partake in the pandemonium. But I like tuning in. It's a nice lead into the Super Bowl to have some other sports content to distract you leading up to the big game.

Reynolds: Mike, how about you? Have you been to the Phoenix Open? And is it on your sports bucket list?

Johnson: Yeah, I've never been. I'll absolutely be tuning in. Hope to go someday for sure. We'll see if Scottie Scheffler can win his third open. Maybe a team bonding event there in the upcoming years, Justin.

Reynolds: There you go. That's a nice thought. And we'll talk more golf ahead of the tradition like no other — the Masters — sometime on “MediaTalk” late March, early April. As has been alluded to last year's Super Bowl on CBS, it was on Nickelodeon's Slime version. It was on Univision for the first time. Streamers Paramount Plus and Vix are in the mix, plus digital outlets. 123.7 million viewers, I believe. That made Patrick Mahomes bigger than Neil Armstrong's Apollo 11 moonwalk. According to Paramount Global. That being said, it looks like NFL and Fox are taking a lot of steps to make sure that viewership could be surpassed. In addition to Fox Deportes and Fox and NFL Digital Outlets, other outlets involved this time around for the Chiefs Eagles rematch. Justin, Fox Deportes will have its own production and telecast, but NBC's Telemundo is in the mix too.

Nielson: Yeah, that is interesting in terms of the Spanish language broadcasts. So you got two competing entities broadcasting the game. Telemundo has gotten very much involved in sports in the past. And was doing co-broadcast for the Olympics in Paris last year. So it'll be really interesting. And I think it's a win.

Reynolds: Mike, what do you make of Tubi's in the game? They're covering the Super Bowl. I think their live sports have been limited to some soccer matches both here in the States and I think down in Mexico and Central America with Liga MX stepping up in a big way into the big game.

Johnson: Yeah, like you mentioned, the Fox-owned Tubi is currently approaching 100 million active users and will be streaming the Super Bowl live in 4K for the first time. I'll be particularly interested to see if the platform runs into any issues at all during the broadcast, having never streamed live. Anything of this magnitude similar to maybe the Netflix coverage during the Paul/Tyson fight. But if it runs without a hitch, I imagine we'll see Fox further showcase the service with other big events in the future.

Reynolds: Yeah, one would think that it is a tough way to come out of the gate, but we'll see how it does. Scott, there could be another factor that could influence Super Bowl viewing this year, and it pertains to our friends at Nielsen.

Robson: So Nielsen started including out-of-home viewing in their measurements in the fall of 2020. 123 million viewers last year for the Super Bowl included around 25 million out-of-home viewers. So it's a pretty significant bump. Nielsen does this through a portable people meter, which is wearable technology. This year, Nielsen is expanding its portable people meter footprint, which they claim will bring out-of-home coverage from 65% to a hundred percent. I'm excited to see what the data looks like after the dust settles and if Nielsen will provide even more granular viewing trends for the big game. So we'll see, but I, yeah, I expect another significant bump from that out-of-home viewing.

Reynolds: Are you going to be watching at home, or are you going to be out and about?

Robson: I'll be watching the game at my brother's house. He's serious about his barbecuing, so I expect some good food there.

Reynolds: All right. Unless I get a better offer, I'm going to be at a local pub. As we get to the end here, guys, Mike, who wins the game and why, and does Super Bowl '25 set the all-time audience mark?

Johnson: I'm going to go with the Chiefs winning the three-peat, and I'm going to say that viewership is slightly less than last year, but still reaching at least 115 million viewers on average.

Reynolds: Wow, okay.

Robson: Scott, you agree? Yeah, I think that this game can set a new audience record. NFL scriptwriters did a great job this year. You've got the Taylor Swift effect, the Chiefs going for the three-peat, and then the expanded out-of-home viewership. So all factors that will help with ratings. I think the Chiefs will win, as I'm not going to bet against Patrick Mahomes in big situations like this.

Reynolds: All right. I'm going for the Chiefs minus the one and a half and the under, which is, I think, at 49 anyway, and as the viewership just under in the 122 million area, we'll see. Justin, when we did our NFL "MediaTalk" preview, you thought the Chiefs would be in the game and maybe battle the 49ers again. So the last word goes to you. Who wins on Sunday?

Nielson: I think it's the Chiefs as well. And I would take the over in terms of audience. And actually, a cool anecdote is Pat Riley actually owns the licensing fee to three-peat. So if the Chiefs win, he gets a $2 million licensing payout. So yeah, he's probably betting on them, right?

Reynolds: Wow. Jimmy Butler might be interested in that. That concludes this episode of "MediaTalk." I just want to thank our Kagan analysts, Mike Johnson, Scott Robson, and Justin Nielson, for sharing their thoughts on the CFP, the NFL playoffs, and the big game. Appreciate it, guys.

Nielson, Robson, and Johnson: Thanks, Mike.

Reynolds: This is Mike Reynolds. Thanks to all of you for listening. Enjoy the Super Bowl wherever you're watching. We'll catch up soon on the next episode of "MediaTalk."