MediaTalk | Season 3 | Ep. 21 - A Box Office Season of Sequels, Side Quests and 'Sinners'

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Mike Reynolds: Hi, I'm Mike Reynolds, the senior reporter covering the media industry with S&P Global Market Intelligence tech, media and telecom news team. Welcome to "MediaTalk", a podcast hosted by S&P Global, where the news and research staff explore issues in the ever-evolving media landscape. Today I'm joined by S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan Senior Research Analyst Wade Holden, who specializes in the box office and the movie business. How are you doing today, Wade?

 

Wade Holden: I'm doing well, thanks.

 

Reynolds: Wade and I are also going to be talking with Mac Mathews, who's the Associate Director of Editorial Design and Publishing at S&P and a film aficionado. Mac, you ready for the summer season?

 

Mac Mathews: I sure am.

 

Reynolds: Good deal. Or should I say good show? Today our Hollywood guys are going to provide a review of the spring season before providing us a look ahead at the summer box office. But before we get there, let's get to the 800-pound elephant or gorilla, whichever you choose, in the room: potential Trump administration tariffs on films and, I think, TV production outside of the US. I don't think there really has been all that much detail, but any quick thoughts here, Wade?

 

Holden: Yeah, I mean, there's pretty much zero detail. And it's tricky and it's not very black and white because films are not a physical good. And there's just so many moving pieces in a film production with different parts done in different countries. It's just murky as to how any type of tariff would be applied. And I think it also could stifle creativity and storytelling. If film studios are forced to film entirely in the US, what are you going to do with films like the upcoming "Mission Impossible" film or the "James Bond" films where they're...

 

Reynolds: Exactly.

 

Holden: ...sweeping massive stories that run across all kinds of different countries. It's really hard to not do that these days. Realism is important in cinema.

 

Reynolds: We'll see what happens. Or hopefully doesn't happen. Onto something a little more tangible. The 17-week spring season, by most accounts, is a strong one. Is that right, Wade?

 

Holden: Yeah, it started out real strong with the box office staying ahead of 2024 for the first 10 weeks. But then we hit a bad streak weeks nine through 13. Weekly box office was down, and by the end of week 13, total spring box office was down 7.7% to $1.5 billion. But then in week 14, a "Minecraft" movie took over theaters, putting in huge numbers with that $162.8 million opening weekend. And then two weeks later, week 16, "Sinners" hit theaters with massive critical and audience praise. So those two films just turned things around for the spring box office and it closed out at nearly 2.34 billion, up 13.9% from the $2.05 billion in 2024, and now a "Minecraft" movie and "Sinners" are the two highest-grossing films of the year.

 

Reynolds: Mac, what are your thoughts on "Minecraft" and "Sinners"? Obviously, as Wade just says, they're really killing it. Any others that took hold this past spring?

 

Mathews: Yeah, those were the big two. "Sinners" has been holding so well week to week with these 30 or so percent drops each week. Usually, anything less than like a 50% drop, if it's dropping 40, 30, 20% or even going up week to week, that's really impressive and really speaks to the audience demand.

 

And the word of mouth that's going on around about a film, and "Sinners" has that. It's kind of captured the zeitgeist. It hasn't taken off internationally as well, but the domestic haul has been really impressive. And "Minecraft," it's just held really well. It's still out in theaters, still playing, still making money. "Minecraft" is a known brand, but "Sinners" is brand new, but neither of them have had a movie before.

 

And so it's looking more like the page is turning and we're getting some new franchises going and maybe christening Ryan Coogler, the director of "Sinners," as your next auteur. Maybe he'll slip into a role in the cinematic ecosystem.

 

Kind of like Christopher Nolan or one of those other people who, when they've got a project, it's just got a baked-in audience. It's like the IP is the director almost because he came up with "Sinners" and just delivered. And so he might have a blank check to come up with something else next time.

 

So it's really exciting to see because people talk about franchise fatigue and what's going to happen with all of these sequels, "Mission Impossible" doing what is supposed to be its final movie.

 

And then you have the Marvel Cinematic Universe, which is 30-some movies deep at this point. So it's exciting to see something new on the horizon.

 

Reynolds: So the spring season's a good one. Let's move on to the main event here.

 

Summer last summer was a pretty good one. It didn't measure up to 2023 overall. But Mac, can you scorecard a bit for us in terms of box office gross and the number of films that were released last summer?

 

Mathews: So overall, summer 2024 was down to $3.65 billion versus the $4.08 billion in 2023. It was streaky, it was off to a rough start. Movies like "The Fall Guy" and "Mad Max Furiosa" just not finding their audience.

 

It wasn't until weeks 20 through 27 that we started to see a growth streak, and that was prompted by "Inside Out Two" and "Despicable Me Four." Kids' movies have really been a boon to the box office in recent years. Parents love to get their little munchkins out to the theater into that air conditioning and everyone can turn off their brains for a little bit and have a nice afternoon.

 

And then the summer closed out a bit down last year. Although "Deadpool" and "Wolverine" really came through, it brought some life back into the Marvel machine. Not that we've necessarily seen anything that big come through yet, but that'll be the big story of this summer is whether superhero movies still have what it takes to really captivate audiences.

 

Reynolds: Memorial Day is typically thought of as the start of summer, but from a Hollywood perspective, it's usually a little bit earlier. Wade, what's the early returns? "Thunderbolts." How's that doing?

 

Holden: It's doing well.

 

Yeah, Marvel made the first weekend in May the first week of the summer. Now that's what they did. Okay. Way back when. But it's got an estimated $155.4 million in domestic box office after three weeks in theaters. It's made over $300 million worldwide, and it's been well received by both audiences and critics.

 

I'm not sure that it's going to match the numbers put up by "Captain America: Brave New World," which has already made over $400 million worldwide. And I think that's a bummer because I thought it was a really good film. A nice sort of a breath of fresh air from the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

 

Mathews: Same here. I saw it and thought it was really good.

 

Reynolds: Mac, what's on top for us for the upcoming Memorial Day weekend?

 

Mathews: So we've got Disney's live-action "Lilo and Stitch," which looks like it'll do great. I don't know. I hear people talking about that being a $1 billion movie potentially, or really somewhere in that neighborhood. The tracking has looked really strong for that. "Lilo and Stitch" has a very strong following in terms of people coming back to it and watching it again and again on Disney Plus. I'm talking about my family and my kids extrapolating from that. I do notice that in being a parent in my area, there's excitement around that title. And then you've got the final installment of the "Mission Impossible" franchise. The last one that came out, "Dead Reckoning," that one didn't do quite as well as a prior installment, "Fallout." And expectations, though, were really high for it coming off of "Top Gun Maverick." So I do wonder how this one will do. The hook of it is that it might be Tom Cruise's last "Mission Impossible" film. So we'll see. It started to roll out in some international markets already and it's been a bit mixed in reception and how well it's doing. So we'll just see. It may be franchise fatigue and we'll have to see how the new "Final Destination" movie keeps doing, how well it holds because it just came out over the weekend and it made $100 million globally with $51 million coming from the domestic market. And that's a really strong showing. I think that might be the best for the franchise. So yeah, things are off and running.

 

Reynolds: Wade, I'll ask you, so you think, Tom Cruise, he's still doing his own stunts, right? Is this really the last go-around for "Mission Impossible"?

 

Holden: It's hard to say. Cruise isn't speaking on the future of the franchise. He's decided not to address that. And I think any future installments will partially depend on how this next film does. As Mac said, "Dead Reckoning" didn't do that great. It was the second-lowest grossing film in a 30-year-old franchise. Now it's 30 years — like, it's crazy. We also have to keep in mind, like Tom Cruise is 62 years old. He's in great shape for 62. I hope I look that good when I reach that age, but things get harder to do the older you get. Who's to say? And I would like to circle back to "Lilo and Stitch," and to say that I think this is going to be very important for Disney's future for live-action reimaginings after the disappointment of "Snow White." They've got this coming out. And then I think the live-action "Moana" is next year. And there's been reports that they put on hold development for a live-action "Tangled" because of how "Snow White" did. So I think the future of Disney's sort of live-action reimaginings will probably rest a lot on how "Lilo and Stitch" and "Moana" do.

 

Reynolds: Guys, how about the "John Wick" franchise? It's a ballerina. Says she's a deadly dancer. Can one of you explain this to me?

 

Mathews: This will really test whether that franchise is relying on Keanu to be the main star. And he is in this movie, so we will just really see whether this can be handed off and built out. World-building has always been a very important part of the "John Wick" cinematic universe.

 

They've created all of these crazy rules within the movie franchise. Can you bring a new character in that and really cement it as a cinematic universe? We shall see.

 

Reynolds: We'll see where that goes. How about Wade? We've got "How to Train Your Dragon." It's a live-action remake from Dreamworks of the 2010 film, which I think did pretty well worldwide, if I read this correctly, about $500 million worldwide, $220 million in the US. A lot of CGI here. Is this one going to work?

 

Holden: Again, hard to say, right? This is their stab at what Disney's been doing for a while now with the live-action reimaginings. And Disney's have had varying degrees of success, right? You've had "Beauty and the Beast" with $500+ million but then you got "Pete's Dragon" with $76.2 million or "Snow White," who's only made $86.8 million domestically. The last "How to Train Your Dragon" film came out in 2019 and it was the lowest-grossing film domestically [in the franchise.] Every single installment domestically had declined from the previous one. So it's hard to say, but Universal has already greenlit a sequel for 2027, so I'm guessing they're very confident in its success.

 

Reynolds: Wow. Okay. That speaks volumes. Alright. Alright. I think this is June 20th as a date here. A bit of a horror film called "28 Years Later." Actually, I think it's 23 years to the day since the 2002 film, "28 Days Later." This one is totally off my radar. Mac, do you know much about this one?

 

Mathews: It's director Danny Boyle, who did the first one. He's back with Alex Garland, who wrote the original "28 Days Later." He's back. And as far as I know, audience interest in the new one is very high. And I think it should open well. And then whether it really takes off will have to be determined by how well audiences respond to it.

 

Reynolds: This next one is one that's not a franchise of sorts. It's "F1." It's a Formula One movie starring Brad Pitt. I guess there's seven seasons now of the Netflix F1 show "Drive to Survive," which got a lot of people into the sport in the US in the last half-decade or so. Now F1, who's deal with ESPN expires after the season. Still doesn't have a new rights partner in the US for '26 and beyond. Did I mention this film has Brad Pitt? He stars as Sonny Hayes, a Formula One driver who was a hot shot in the nineties forced to quit after an accident. Wade, are you riding with this one?

 

Holden: Yeah, I'm very interested in this film. Okay. Yeah, I think the trailer looked really good. And I know Brad Pitt is a huge racing fan, so I'm sure he's going to make it look as good as possible. The documentary "Hitting the Apex" that he produced and narrated turned me into a Moto GP fan. "Ford v Ferrari" did well back in 2019 with over $200 million worldwide box office, and that had big names Christian Bale and Matt Damon starring. So I think there's an appetite for huge Hollywood stars and racing films. We all like fast cars.

 

So I think it's a perfect summer film actually.

 

Mathews: And it's from the director of "Top Gun Maverick," maybe that means something to some people in terms of quality.

 

Reynolds: Alright. So it's got a lot of big things working for it there. And speaking of big, we'll go to July 4th weekend. There's yet another new "Jurassic" era. You would think, by this time dinosaurs people maybe doesn't bode well for human health. Mac, what do you think about the third incarnation of the "Jurassic" franchise?

 

Mathews: Yeah, so each film in the "Jurassic World" series made about $200 million less than the prior installment, signaling that there may be some franchise fatigue or that the films just aren't capturing the magic. And this one could continue on that path. Which would put it at making less than a billion. If it declines by another $200 million, then that would put it around, I don't know, $800 million or so worldwide. But, yeah, I don't know what it would take to get the franchise back over the $1 billion-dollar mark because this one, it doesn't seem as much like a full reset. Like they haven't built a new park. This one seems more like a side quest, a spinoff from what they had been doing, so I'm not sure where audiences will fit this into their summer.

 

Holden: I'm a mark, I gotta tell you every time.

 

Mathews: Oh, me too.

 

Holden: I'm in the theater and I hear that jingle, it just, I'm like, I'm in, I'm ready.

 

Mathews: I'm ready for dinosaurs…

 

Holden: As soon as I hear that…

 

Mathews: …give me all the dinosaurs.

 

Holden: … I'm there.

 

Reynolds: Scarlett Johansson in this right, fellow?

 

Holden and Mathews: Yes.

 

Reynolds: So, true fact that her husband Colin Jost, he's going to get eaten early on?

 

Mathews: I think that's true.

 

Reynolds: (Laughs) Alright. Okay.

 

Mathews: Just speculation.

 

Reynolds: You guys have mentioned superheroes. We've got a "Superman" film coming on the 11th of July. David Corenswet, he's the man of steel. This is the starting point of a run for James Gunn's brand new DC Studios. Wade, is there any kryptonite around this or is this going to break through?

 

Holden: I think that just like "Captain America: Brave New World" was a litmus test for whether moviegoers still had an appetite for Marvel films. I think the same can be said here for this movie, for DC Comics films. I believe there's reason to be optimistic about this new era for DC. James Gunn has proved that he knows how to make this type of film, giving them heart, humor, and drama. There were very few people who knew who the "Guardians of the Galaxy" were before the first movie.

 

And James Gunn turned them into a household name. It's three hugely successful movies. They even have a ride at Disneyland's California Adventure Park. So...

 

Reynolds: Then we're going a couple weeks later. "Fantastic Four" first steps. Pedro Pascal, Joseph Quinn, Eoin Macken, Backrack. Vanessa Kirby comprised the Quartet. Mac, are you in the theater for this one?

 

Mathews: Sure. Let's do it.

 

Reynolds: Okay.

 

Mathews: The Marvel fatigue is real. This one has a few things going for it. "Fantastic Four" is a well-known brand and the fans have been waiting for the introduction into the Marvel Cinematic Universe, so this is a big crossover event. And it has an interesting '60s kitschy aesthetic to it that sets it apart. I still do think that it's going to be an interesting test case. I'm not feeling like it's a guaranteed huge success just because I think it's going to be a summer where we really feel out what the right budget should be for superhero movies going forward. Because there's still an appetite for them. But when we talk about the success, a lot of it is against budget, and you could still make superhero movies for less, but is it worth throwing hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars at them?

 

Reynolds: Alright, we'll see. You gotta do the math. Alright, last one here guys. "Freaky Friday." Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan are back. The 2003 one carried about $160 million back in the day. Both ladies are a lot older, like we all are. Wade, any interest in this?

 

Holden: Oh yeah, I think there is. I think the 2003 version has a bit of a cult following. And I think this is a good family offering to close out the final month of the summer season before everyone's back in school.

 

Reynolds: Alright, we're getting to the end here, fellas. Just to review, if you had to pick two films, Wade, which ones do you think are going to be the top dogs? And the same thing for you, Mac.

 

Holden: I feel like "Lilo and Stitch" is going to be up there. I have hopes for "Superman." I think "Superman" might exceed expectations. Sleeper-wise, there's another Pixar film coming out this summer, "Elio," so that could do well as well.

 

Reynolds: How about you, Mac? What are your thoughts here?

 

Mathews: Similar. I would put "Lilo and Stitch" as one of the safest bets. I would maybe say "How to Train Your Dragon." It's just hard to bet against kids' movies in this market right now. Horror movies are holding strong and doing well, but they don't have the kind of billion-dollar potential that a family movie can get to. Those are the kind of the safest bets. I could see "Superman" taking off. If it just really delivers, it could be one of those movies that just holds for all summer long if it's really good. And yeah, we didn't mention the new "Karate Kid."

 

Reynolds: You got the Netflix backing from "Cobra Kai." There's some things working there.

 

Mathews: Wade, what are your thoughts on this one?

 

Holden: I'll probably take my son because my son has watched every season of "Cobra Kai," I think at least twice. Yeah, I'll probably go. (Laughs), I'm going to drag my kids to see Liam Neeson take over the role of Frank Drebin in the "Naked Gun" remake in August. That's what I'm going to do.

 

Reynolds: Okay. Last year, at this time, Wade, in our Hollywood summer box office preview, you projected that summer '24 wouldn't measure up to the $4 billion that was grossed in '23. You were right. Congrats. What's your fearless forecast for summer 2025 in terms of box office?

 

Holden: You know, like Mac said, there's family films coming out every month. You got "Lilo and Stitch." You have "How to Train Your Dragon" and "Elio." You've got the "Smurfs" movie. You've got "The Bad Guys 2," and "Freakier Friday." And you couple that with these big franchise films. I'm optimistic that we're going to get over $4 billion again this summer.

 

Reynolds: All right. Thumbs up. We like it. That's good. Guys, that concludes this episode of "MediaTalk." Once again, I want to thank our Hollywood handicappers, Wade and Mac, for talking to us about the movies and the movie business. Appreciate it, guys.

 

Holden and Matthews: Thank you.

 

Reynolds: This is Mike Reynolds. Thanks to all of you for listening. Maybe we'll meet up with the movies this summer, but I know we'll definitely catch up soon on the next edition of "MediaTalk". Have fun this summer.