US life insurers projected to see YOY growth in Q1 2026 profits, revenue, EPS

The majority of top US life insurers are predicted to report year-over-year gains in first-quarter 2026 revenue, profits and earnings per share, according to an S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis using Visible Alpha data.

Unum Group, Voya Financial Inc. and Corebridge Financial Inc. are outliers from the group for revenue projections. All three insurers are expected to book lower revenue in the first quarter on a year-over-year and sequential basis.

Meanwhile, Aflac Inc. is projected to see no change in first-quarter revenue year over year, and Jackson Financial Inc. is projected to see no change in first-quarter revenue on a sequential basis.

Among the largest US life insurers, MetLife Inc. has the highest consensus operating revenue estimate for the first quarter at $19.40 billion, followed by Prudential Financial Inc. at $14.22 billion.

Private credit chatter

Analysts expect life insurers' exposure to private credit to be a key focus during the first-quarter earnings season.

TD Cowen analyst Andrew Kligerman said in a note that investor concerns over private credit have been "a main driver" of the year-to-date stock pressure on the life insurance industry.

"While private debt comprises an average 15-20% of investment portfolios, [approximately] 90% is investment-grade and direct middle-market loans are only a small subset," Kligerman wrote. "That said, we expect this to remain an overhang for the near term."

The insurance industry's relationship to private credit has also been under a regulatory magnifying glass as the National Association of Insurance Commissioners updates the way state regulators analyze investment risk. The efforts, which are aimed at increasing transparency and ensuring that regulators have the right tools to assess risk, include the formation of new task groups and changes to reporting requirements.

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The Treasury Department also announced in early April that it intends to hold a series of meetings with insurance regulators that will be "focused on recent developments in private credit markets."

Kligerman also expects management to provide more color on the outlook for life insurers' variable investment income, as possible pressure from equity market weakness in the quarter, combined with higher interest rates and private credit concerns, comes into play.

Ahead of earnings season, Jefferies analyst Suneet Kamath said in a note that ultimately he is "constructive" on the US life insurance industry.

"While we recognize the macro uncertainty, we feel current valuations do not reflect improvements in the industry's risk profile and growth potential," Kamath said.

YOY profit gains

All of the top US life insurers are projected to record first-quarter profit growth year over year. However, seven insurers are expected to report increased profit quarter over quarter, while six are expected to report a decrease.

Corebridge and Equitable announced that they are pursuing an all-stock merger in the first quarter. The companies are likely to discuss the deal, which came as a surprise to analysts, during earnings calls.

Going into first-quarter earnings, Kligerman said Corebridge is a company he favors among the more macro-sensitive players.

"While it has meaningful credit exposure, we think the current stock price already discounts an onerous scenario, even before accounting for the expected accretion from its pending merger with Equitable," Kligerman said.

Equitable has a first-quarter consensus net income estimate of $466.5 million, and Corebridge has an estimate of $497.1 million.

Higher YOY EPS

Among the top group of insurers, only Lincoln National Corp. is anticipated to report lower first-quarter earnings per share on a year-over-year basis. Lincoln's consensus diluted operating EPS estimate is $1.78.

Globe Life will kick off first-quarter earnings for life insurers with its results scheduled to be released April 22. The insurer will hold its earnings conference call at 11 a.m. ET on April 23.