Q1 2026 earnings gains projected in 8 S&P 500 sectors, led by IT

Earnings are expected to grow for eight of the S&P 500's 11 sectors in first-quarter financial results.

Analysts project that S&P 500 companies will increase their aggregate first-quarter earnings by 12.1% year over year, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. Earnings gains in the IT, real estate and financial sectors are each projected to outpace the S&P 500's overall performance.

The S&P 500 posted back-to-back monthly losses in February and March, weighed down by geopolitical tensions, the Middle East conflict, soaring energy prices, ongoing stock valuation worries and concerns about AI-related disruptions in industries such as software. However, in March, investors cited equity fundamentals and shareholder returns as the most supportive factors for near-term returns, according to the monthly S&P Global Investment Manager Index survey.

The IT sector is expected to lead S&P 500 earnings growth, with companies in the sector expected to report a 44% aggregate increase in normalized earnings per share. Cumulative earnings for healthcare companies are projected to fall more than 10% year over year, the steepest drop among the S&P 500 sectors.

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Analysts forecast Sandisk Corp. to record a normalized EPS of $14.06 for its upcoming financial results, rising from a loss of 30 cents in the year-ago period. This would be the largest year-over-year earnings gain among S&P 500 companies. In the year-ago period, the data storage company said it began reducing supply to match demand and raising prices to maximize returns.

Dow Inc. is expected to report the largest year-over-year decrease in normalized earnings, with a loss of 29 cents per share for its first-quarter results. The materials company launched an initiative in January to reduce costs and workforce to improve operating earnings. Dow Chairman and CEO James Fitterling said "pricing actions and supply dynamics have evolved at a very rapid and constructive pace" due to market changes since the start of the Middle East conflict in the first quarter, according to comments delivered March 18 at the JPMorgan Industrials Conference.

Projections by market cap segments

Four of the S&P 500's five largest companies by market capitalization are expected to report higher normalized EPS for the first quarter compared with the corresponding period in 2025, led by NVIDIA Corp. with a 119% increase. Only Alphabet Inc. is projected to post lower earnings among the S&P 500's largest companies, with a nearly 7% decline.

Among the S&P 500's largest companies with market caps above $100 billion, Micron Technology Inc. is estimated to report the largest year-over-year normalized EPS increase, at 487.1%. This would also be the fifth-largest increase among all S&P 500 companies.

Analysts forecast that the five largest companies in the S&P 500's midsize segment, comprising companies with market caps between $30 billion and $100 billion, will all post higher normalized EPS in first-quarter results. Northrop Grumman Corp. is expected to lead the group, with normalized EPS expected to climb nearly 82% year over year.

Sandisk is projected to report the largest year-over-year normalized EPS gain among midsize companies.

For S&P 500 companies with market caps below $30 billion, analysts anticipate that only two of the five largest — Interactive Brokers Group Inc. and United Airlines Holdings Inc. — will achieve year-over-year increases in normalized EPS.

Cincinnati Financial Corp.'s normalized EPS is projected to rise 894.1% year over year, the largest gain among the S&P 500's smaller companies and the second-largest increase among all companies in the index. The insurer reported a loss in the year-ago period after many policyholders were affected by California wildfires and heavy storms in 21 states.