Metals get outsized exemptions from 'reciprocal' tariffs amid trade probes

The US has exempted almost a third of select metals and minerals from recent "reciprocal" tariffs by value of 2024 imports, a greater share than for overall imports, amid greater White House scrutiny of raw material supply chains, according to an analysis by Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.

President Donald Trump has made tariffs a core part of his economic and diplomatic strategy, levying separate import fees on China, Canada and Mexico, the aluminum and steel industries, and a broad 10% tariff on most of the world. But about a third of US imports of metals by value escaped what Trump calls "reciprocal" tariffs, including the 125% duty on Chinese imports launched April 9 as a modification to an April 2 executive order.

Those exempted metals, which range from gold bullion to processed lithium to enriched uranium, may still face import taxes as the administration moves forward with sector-by-sector national security probes through the Department of Commerce. But for now, the exempted and nonexempted metals paint a picture of a White House trade policy taking longer to chew on issues over raw material supply chains.

About 80.9% of all US imports by value in 2024 are subject to the "reciprocal" tariffs, representing $2.64 trillion in goods. This leaves $624 billion in goods, or 19.1%, entering the US under exemptions. The value of exemptions for imports of energy and pharmaceutical products exceeds that of metals, but Trump has already promised to target pharmaceuticals in a future tariff announcement.

Metals and minerals that were exempted comprise 29.6%, or $65.9 billion, of the imports from the analyzed metals and mineral categories, according to an analysis using eight-digit harmonized system codes to tally import values.

The bigger exemptions for things such as energy and specific raw materials appear to try to minimize some pain to the US economy and buyers of raw materials in some sectors — at least to a degree, said Robert Embree, a senior economist at Rosenberg Research, a Canadian financial firm.

"There is a view that raw materials should be subject to lower tariffs," Embree said. "But in most of these cases they're not subject to zero tariffs. And that is also true for intermediate inputs for manufacturing, which generally are subjected to tariffs. I wouldn't describe the tariff policy as being designed to prioritize domestic manufacturing. It's much more about prioritizing as close to a blanket tariff as they think that they can do."

Some experts also expect the recent trade turmoil and the risk of recession to push the Trump administration to blunt the impact of new trade measures targeting metals.

"I'm cautiously optimistic that some more thought will go into [the national security probes] given this turmoil, because otherwise it's just going to get worse," Natalie Scott-Gray, senior metals demand analyst at financial services company StoneX, told Platts.

More for metals

By value, gold products are big ticket items. High purity precious metals in a rectangular shape didn't get an exemption. Imports in this category were $21 billion in 2024. On the other hand, the Trump administration excluded precious metals in the form of gold bullion. Imports of gold bullion and related products hit $14.6 billion in 2024.

The administration exempted imports of other metals including copper, potassium chloride, also known as potash, and platinum group metals, which are used in car manufacturing. The value of 2024 imports of refined copper cathode was $8.47 billion, making it a leading metal not yet facing tariffs. The import values of exempted rhodium, palladium and platinum in 2024 were $2.19 billion, $2.04 billion, and $1.95 billion, respectively. Potash imports were worth $3.5 billion in 2024.

The exemptions also divided imports of basic raw materials such as metal-containing ores. The Trump administration left uranium ores and concentrates outside the "reciprocal" tariffs. These were among the highest valued ore imports in 2024 at $521.9 million. Aluminum, manganese and chromium ores also got a tariff break.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration left other ores to face the brunt of the recent tariffs, including iron ores and concentrates, and molybdenum ores. The value of imports of iron ore and concentrate was $720 million in 2024, and it was $610.5 million for molybdenum ores.

Lithium carbonate and various forms of cobalt and cobalt-containing materials that are key to battery manufacturing also dodged the tariffs. US imports of lithium carbonate were worth $199.3 million in 2024, while imports of cobalt oxide and hydroxide were worth $35.5 million.

More tariffs expected

The relatively wide slice of exemptions for metals could narrow, however, as the White House is scrutinizing many metals for additional trade measures under Section 232 investigations of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. Trump can leverage the law for tariff and non-tariff policies to address national security concerns in supply chains.

Trump launched a probe into copper on Feb. 25, and many other metals that the White House categorizes as critical in a separate April 15 executive order. The targeted "critical" metals include nickel, cobalt, lithium, graphite and 17 rare earths.

But investigations do not guarantee new tariffs, and a White House official said they would not prejudge the national security probes.

"We will wait for the investigation to see what could require tariffs and what does not," the official said in an email.

Trump has signaled that he wants to sign new trade deals with key trading partners such as China, Japan and South Korea, but those negotiations have not been made public, and the Chinese government denies having had any talks with Trump on the subject of trade. The president also continues to favor hefty tariffs, casting duties of 20%-50% a year from now as "total victory," according to an interview released April 25 by Time magazine.

"Whether the Trump administration likes it or not, they will have to negotiate," Chris Berry, founder and president of House Mountain Partners, a battery metals investment consultancy, said in an email. "Given that there is so much battery infrastructure and intellectual property in Asia, we can't expect to compete overnight especially as we — North America and Europe — are at a competitive and structural cost disadvantage."

The longer the Trump administration takes with the investigations, which can unroll for up to 270 days, the longer the uncertainty will pull metals and prices in different directions, some analysts say.

"Given the large dependence on imports, I'd say the industry will build up stocks as much as financially possible," Patricia Barreto, an analyst at Commodity Insights, said in an email.

StoneX's Scott-Gray expects copper to continue flowing to the US at higher-than-usual rates. US copper has traded at a premium to non-US copper amid the overhang of the national security probe. Then, if more tariffs come for exempted imports such as copper, the market will shift into a new normal.

"Once tariffs go in, there's likely to be some relief for the market," Scott-Gray said. "We'll probably see copper prices going back a little bit to where the fundamentals are."